How much effort should Romney place in winning Pennsylvania?

[jmc247]

Romney started campaigning in Pennsylvania yesterday, he will be campaigning there today as well. This is quite unusual for Romney who usually takes a hands off approach when it comes to personal campaigning in a primary state until a few days (or on occasion the day before) voting happens in a primary state. Santorum on the other hand is doing something unusual for him and taking the entire week off from campaigning.

No massive ad buys yet by team Romney, just small ones from his SuperPAC.

Santorum taking the rest of the week off of the campaign while Romney goes all out barnstorming Pennsylvania may not seem like much, but when the Pennsylvania polling starts coming in next week I expect to see Santorum down by double digits in the state even before Romney potentally starts heavy ad buys.

Romney is likely waiting to see what Santorum does early next week when his four days of rest ends before deciding on massive ad buys. Romney I think is giving Santorum a chance to get out of the race or face the likely prospect of humiliating defeat in his home state.

[jmc247]

Santorum: 'We have to win' in Pennsylvania

Campaigning at a diner in his former congressional district the day after he lost three primaries, Rick Santorum brushed aside calls to bow out of the Republican presidential race and allow front-runner Mitt Romney to focus on defeating President Obama in the fall.

“We have to win here and we plan on winning here,” Santorum said, adding that he believed attacks by Romney and his supporters wouldn’t be as successful here as they had been in other states.

 “The people in Pennsylvania know me. All of the negative attacks are, I think, going to fall on deaf ears here and we have a strong basis of support here and we’re going to work very, very hard.”

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-pn-santorum-we-have-to-win-in-pennsylvania-20120404,0,1256374.story

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Do we think at this point Santorum is mainly running so he can win an election in Pa and exorcise the demons of '06? Even if it's just a primary?

Partly, yes.

What would that prove? In 2006, he was unopposed in the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Do we think at this point Santorum is mainly running so he can win an election in Pa and exorcise the demons of '06? Even if it's just a primary?

Partly, yes.

What would that prove? In 2006, he was unopposed in the primary.

I know it isn't the same thing but it still is a physiological benefit especially for someone known to have some issues with Republicans here.

[jmc247]

Romney to air TV ads in Pennsylvania

Mitt Romney's campaign is reserving airtime in the upcoming primary state of Pennsylvania starting next week, a strategist tracking the 2012 air war tells me.

The size of the buy is unclear, but the campaign is buying broadcast flights that span the period from April 9 to April 22. The Pennsylvania primary is April 24.

The Romney super PAC Restore Our Future has been up on Pennsylvania cable TV, but the direct investment by the campaign is new, and one more sign that Boston wants to go in for the kill there against Rick Santorum.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/romney-to-air-tv-ads-in-pennsylvania-119813.html

Romney's campaign (not counting SuperPAC ads) only spent about a million and a half on Super Tuesday ads which I felt was a mistake as another million in Tenn and Ohio would have provided him much much better Super Tuesday election night coverage and that would have been worth 20 times as much or more.

The real question will be how much will Romney spend on winning in Pennsylvania. Right now it feels as though he is playing a game with Rick in campaigning around the state and leaking that he is going on the air, but not saying how much. The name of the game is telling Rick pretty clearly after you have your Easter weekend you either get out of the race or I will fight you tooth and nail over your home state and I will beat you. But, get out of the race and you won't have to worry about it and you will have a brighter future in the GOP down the road if you so choose.

As for what he should be willing to spend on winning Pennsylvania if Rick stays in? Anything he has on hand and if he wants to go to the piggy bank for more I would do that as well. He beats Rick in his home state the race ends and Romney very much needs the race to end in April to get ready to face an already ready Obama machine.