The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

Ron Paul now in second place....

Not anymore.  No Santorum surge either, which surprises me.

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich rebounds some more, and Santorum moves up into a tie with Bachmann for 6th place.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Romney, Huntsman

Romney 68.5
Gingrich 11.3
Paul 8.1
Huntsman 5.2
Perry 2.8
Bachmann 1.3
Santorum 1.3
J. Bush 0.6

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 45.5
Gingrich to win at least one primary or caucus: 34.9
Perry to win at least one primary or caucus: 11.0
Either Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul, or Bachmann to run for prez as a 3rd party candidate: 34.0

[© tweed]

'run for prize'?  odd phraseology.

[Mr. Morden]

'run for prize'?  odd phraseology.

Don't know what I was thinking on that one.  Meant to type "prez", but I typed "prize".

[Oakvale]

That Palin/Trump/etc third-party candidacy thing seems quite overpriced.

[pikachu]

Doubt Perry will win any primaries/caucuses. None of those, except maybe Trump, will run 3rd party. I don't think anyone wants anymore Bachmann/Palin.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney hits 70, Paul back in 2nd place, and Santorum ahead of Bachmann.

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

Romney 70.0
Paul 8.4
Gingrich 8.2
Huntsman 5.0
Perry 2.5
Santorum 1.8
Bachmann 1.4

Winning party

Dems 51.9
GOP 45.6
other 2.6

[Lincoln Republican]

I see Santorum is on a tear.

He has now passed Bachman.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney
Down: Paul, Huntsman

GOP nomination

Romney 72.9
Gingrich 7.7
Paul 6.9
Huntsman 4.0
Perry 2.6
Santorum 1.6
Bachmann 1.1

winning individual

Obama 52.0
Romney 36.3
Paul 3.8
Gingrich 3.0
Huntsman 2.0
Perry 1.0
Clinton 0.9
Santorum 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

GOP nomination

Romney 74.8
Paul 7.6
Gingrich 5.0
Huntsman 4.4
Perry 2.5
Santorum 2.1
Bachmann 0.8

Iowa

Paul 52.2
Romney 35.1
Gingrich 5.1
Santorum 5.0
Bachmann 1.6
Perry 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum passes Perry.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 73.7
Paul 7.7
Gingrich 5.4
Huntsman 3.9
Santorum 3.4
Perry 2.3
Bachmann 1.0

Iowa

Paul 55.1
Romney 32.4
Santorum 7.5
Gingrich 4.1
Bachmann 1.3
Perry 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

And now Romney breaks 75, and Santorum passes Huntsman for 4th place:

Romney 75.1
Paul 7.5
Gingrich 5.7
Santorum 3.6
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 1.6
Bachmann 0.9

[Keystone Phil]

And now Romney breaks 75, and Santorum passes Huntsman for 4th place:

Romney 75.1
Paul 7.5
Gingrich 5.7
Santorum 3.6
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 1.6
Bachmann 0.9

Rejoice! He will surely pass Gingrich by next Wednesday.

[Simfan34]

Nooooooooooooo!

[Mr. Morden]

Paul is crashing, and Gingrich passes him for 2nd place and Santorum passes him for 3rd place.

GOP nomination

Romney 77.8
Gingrich 4.9
Santorum 4.0
Paul 3.7
Huntsman 3.1
Perry 1.5
J. Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.6

Iowa

Romney 50.1
Paul 26.9
Santorum 20.3
Gingrich 1.0
Perry 0.6
Bachmann 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum was at 0.7 as recently as Dec. 18, so anyone investing in him then would have made some big $.

GOP nomination

Romney 79.0
Gingrich 5.3
Santorum 4.5
Paul 3.8
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 1.5
J. Bush 0.6
Bachmann 0.5

Iowa

Romney 45.0
Paul 28.2
Santorum 23.6
Gingrich 1.0

Four years ago today:

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 64.5
Obama 26.5
Edwards 7.0
Gore 1.8
Richardson 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Biden 0.1

Iowa
Obama 54.7
Clinton 28.0
Edwards 18.0
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 27.1
McCain 24.0
Romney 23.8
Huckabee 11.5
Paul 7.5
Thompson 2.9
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.4
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 58.1
Romney 40.0
McCain 0.3
Thompson 0.2
Field 4.0

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum was at 0.7 as recently as Dec. 18, so anyone investing in him then would have made some big $.

Almost makes me wish I was a gambling man.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney breaks 80, and Paul moves back up to 3rd place as Santorum slides.

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP nomination

Romney 80.3
Gingrich 5.7
Paul 4.0
Huntsman 3.6
Santorum 3.0
Perry 2.0
J. Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.6

Iowa (1st place)

Romney 50.4
Paul 31.3
Santorum 21.3
Gingrich 0.7

Iowa (2nd place)

Paul 38.0
Romney 34.0
Santorum 30.0
Gingrich 2.5

Any guesses as to what the GOP nomination odds will look like in 24 hours?  How would a Romney, Paul, or Santorum victory impact the nomination numbers?

[© tweed]

I think only a Romney 3rd place finish has the potential to make a serious dent.  not sure which would be more harmful to him.. a Paul win gives him the only possible NH threat, but I doubt could beat Romney in a one-on-one.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP nomination

Romney 79.4
Gingrich 5.7
Huntsman 4.3
Paul 4.1
Santorum 3.1
Perry 1.8
J. Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.6

Iowa (1st place)

Romney 47.6
Paul 26.5
Santorum 25.0
Gingrich 0.6

Iowa (2nd place)

Paul 38.7
Romney 33.0
Santorum 29.9
Gingrich 1.0
Perry 1.0

[© tweed]

Santorum gaining at Romney's expense in the Iowa market


Romney 44.4
Santorum 28.6
Paul 27.8
Gingrich 0.7
Perry 0.2

[© tweed]

Romney down to 41.5, Paul/Santorum around 29...

[© tweed]

slicky ricky dying a death on InTr.  R 42 - P 32 - S 12

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

First post Iowa update.

The market is in heavy flux right now. Santorum is actually  the only gainer, and he didn't gain that much

Romney 78.3
Gingrich 5.5
Santorum 3.7
Huntsman 3.6
Paul 3.0
Jeb Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum now in 2nd place.

Romney 79.3
Santorum 5.9
Gingrich 5.0
Huntsman 3.7
Paul 1.9
Perry 0.7
Bachmann 0.2
J. Bush 0.2
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Palin 0.2
Ryan 0.2