The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum was at 0.7 as recently as Dec. 18, so anyone investing in him then would have made some big $.

Almost makes me wish I was a gambling man.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney breaks 80, and Paul moves back up to 3rd place as Santorum slides.

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP nomination

Romney 80.3
Gingrich 5.7
Paul 4.0
Huntsman 3.6
Santorum 3.0
Perry 2.0
J. Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.6

Iowa (1st place)

Romney 50.4
Paul 31.3
Santorum 21.3
Gingrich 0.7

Iowa (2nd place)

Paul 38.0
Romney 34.0
Santorum 30.0
Gingrich 2.5

Any guesses as to what the GOP nomination odds will look like in 24 hours?  How would a Romney, Paul, or Santorum victory impact the nomination numbers?

[© Tweed the Younger]

I think only a Romney 3rd place finish has the potential to make a serious dent.  not sure which would be more harmful to him.. a Paul win gives him the only possible NH threat, but I doubt could beat Romney in a one-on-one.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP nomination

Romney 79.4
Gingrich 5.7
Huntsman 4.3
Paul 4.1
Santorum 3.1
Perry 1.8
J. Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.6

Iowa (1st place)

Romney 47.6
Paul 26.5
Santorum 25.0
Gingrich 0.6

Iowa (2nd place)

Paul 38.7
Romney 33.0
Santorum 29.9
Gingrich 1.0
Perry 1.0

[© Tweed the Younger]

Santorum gaining at Romney's expense in the Iowa market


Romney 44.4
Santorum 28.6
Paul 27.8
Gingrich 0.7
Perry 0.2

[© Tweed the Younger]

Romney down to 41.5, Paul/Santorum around 29...

[© Tweed the Younger]

slicky ricky dying a death on InTr.  R 42 - P 32 - S 12

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

First post Iowa update.

The market is in heavy flux right now. Santorum is actually  the only gainer, and he didn't gain that much

Romney 78.3
Gingrich 5.5
Santorum 3.7
Huntsman 3.6
Paul 3.0
Jeb Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum now in 2nd place.

Romney 79.3
Santorum 5.9
Gingrich 5.0
Huntsman 3.7
Paul 1.9
Perry 0.7
Bachmann 0.2
J. Bush 0.2
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Palin 0.2
Ryan 0.2

[Old Europe]

Santorum back to fourth place.

Romney 80.1%
Gingrich 5.0%
Huntsman 5.0%
Santorum 4.7%

Wow, how is it that his Iowa "win" has almost no effect whatsoever?

[TheGlobalizer]

Santorum back to fourth place.

Romney 80.1%
Gingrich 5.0%
Huntsman 5.0%
Santorum 4.7%

Wow, how is it that his Iowa "win" has almost no effect whatsoever?

Because he's unelectable outside of the right-wing religio-fascist communities that rallied for him last night.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, how is it that his Iowa "win" has almost no effect whatsoever?

Because he didn't win.  The fact that he might come in a close second was already priced in.  In any case, it's the polls that'll determine how much of a bump he gets.  If Santorum has an unexpectedly large bump in the polls, he'll get a corresponding boost on Intrade.

Also, Christie has surged into a tie with Rubio on the GOP VP market:

Christie 19.5
Rubio 19.5
Martinez 5.5
Portman 5.1
Santorum 5.0
Thune 5.0
McDonnell 4.5
Rice 4.5
Jindal 3.1

[© Tweed the Younger]

Romney 78.9
Gingrich 6.4
Santorum 6.1
Huntsman 3.8
Paul 2.4
Perry 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum back up to 2nd place.

GOP nomination

Romney 79.7
Santorum 6.6
Gingrich 5.7
Huntsman 4.1
Paul 2.3
Perry 1.0

New Hampshire

Romney 96.0
Paul 2.2
Huntsman 1.5
Santorum 1.1
Gingrich 0.3

South Carolina

Romney 51.5
Santorum 25.7
Gingrich 15.0
Perry 2.9
Huntsman 2.0
Paul 1.0

[© Tweed the Younger]

Romney up to 78 to win South Carolina. seems a touch high but gives you an idea that we are, after all, watching a coronation.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum craters as Huntsman surges to second place.

Up: Romney, Huntsman
Down: Santorum

Romney 81.3
Huntsman 5.9
Gingrich 4.8
Paul 3.7
Santorum 2.0
Perry 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney breaks 85, and Gingrich now up to 2nd place.

Up: Romney
Down: Huntsman

GOP nomination

Romney 85.1
Gingrich 5.6
Paul 3.4
Huntsman 2.0
Santorum 1.6
Perry 0.8

South Carolina

Romney 79.0
Gingrich 13.3
Santorum 5.3
Perry 1.7
Paul 1.6
Huntsman 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's ~85 price matches where McCain was in 2008, shortly after winning Florida.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Paul
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 82.8
Gingrich 5.0
Paul 4.7
Huntsman 1.2
Santorum 1.0
Perry 0.8

South Carolina

Romney 73.7
Gingrich 19.0
Santorum 5.0
Paul 2.9
Perry 0.3
Huntsman 0.2

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Gingrich and Paul are undervalued in South Carolina.

[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman dropping out reduces his odds to Buddy Roemer levels.

Up: Romney
Down: Paul, Gingrich, Huntsman

Romney 87.4
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.6
Santorum 1.0
Perry 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.4
Huntsman 0.2
Palin 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich making a bit of a comeback, and Christie is now #1 in the veepstakes.

GOP nomination

Romney 88.7
Gingrich 5.2
Paul 3.2
Santorum 0.6
Perry 0.4

GOP VP nomination

Christie 28.0
Rubio 22.2
McDonnell 7.5
Thune 5.2
Portman 4.2
Martinez 4.0
Jindal 2.7
Santorum 2.7
Ryan 2.5

Dem. nomination

Obama 96.2
Clinton 1.2
Biden 0.4

Dem. VP nomination

Biden 86.8
Clinton 13.0

South Carolina

Romney 74.0
Gingrich 20.5
Santorum 0.7
Paul 0.3

Romney to win all 50 state primaries / caucuses 49.4

[© Tweed the Younger]

kamikaze Grinch surge


Romney 83
Gingrich 10
Paul 4
Santorum 0.9
Jeb Bush 0.4



SC...

Romney 60.1
Gingrich 35.0
Santorum 0.7
Paul 0.3

[TheGlobalizer]

GOP VP nomination

Christie 28.0
Rubio 22.2
McDonnell 7.5
Thune 5.2
Portman 4.2
Martinez 4.0
Jindal 2.7
Santorum 2.7
Ryan 2.5

I'd be buying the sh** out of Daniels right now.

[Lief]

If I knew how intrade worked/had money to spend, I would buy a lot of SC Gingrich right now.