The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[W_E_Dodge]

I have no idea why any one would place a bet on Mitch Daniels- the man is not running!

[paul718]

I have no idea why any one would place a bet on Mitch Daniels- the man is not running!

I think the fact that he adamantly denied any interest, only to recently drop hints that he's "considering" it, is evident that he will run.

Romney 24.6
Palin 23.0
Thune 14.3
Pawlenty 9.9
Huckabee 6.0
Daniels 4.8

Where is the Thune interest coming from?  I understand he would make a decent candidate, and seems to be in primed position, but has there been any hints from his camp?

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 24.6
Palin 23.0
Thune 14.3
Pawlenty 9.9
Huckabee 6.0
Daniels 4.8

Where is the Thune interest coming from?  I understand he would make a decent candidate, and seems to be in primed position, but has there been any hints from his camp?

Not exactly, but there has been some speculation that he's been maintaining silence on the presidential question as he waits out the March 30th campaign filing deadline for his senate seat.  Right now, he has no challengers from either party, and would run unopposed.  Talking about running for president could change that.  It's possible that's he's waiting until after March 30th to start making the moves towards a presidential run.  I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks and months.

[Reaganfan]

Daniels has said he won't do anything for the next year plus which would make him if he runs a Fred Thompson late entry type.  But I do think he could attract a lot of establishment support and money.

As for Huckabee, I wonder what his FOX salary is.  If Obama's approvals in 10 months are where they are now, and Republicans focus on challenging the mandate in ways that are problematic for Romney, especially if Palin isn't looking like a candidate, I could see him giving into temptation to run.  Especially since an Iowa + South Carolina win could make his run serious.  But I also assume that FOX money is delicious.

Palin has a deal for a new book and may be close to signing a deal to host a nature "reality" show about Alaska.  I agree she's got $ on the eyes but a presidential run might be part of that actually.

Here's the way I see 2012.

Republicans need somebody who isn't a gossip drama-filled queen (PALIN) or who doesn't have an entertaining television show contract on FOX News (HUCKABEE).

Somebody who has executive experience, is similar to Obama in height and debating skills, who is charismatic and can light up a room, a good speaker, someone who has a good family, conservative values, and strong business and economic expertise.

To me, Governor Romney is the ideal candidate in 2012 not just for the Republican Party, but I can honestly see him sweeping America as a whole in two years. From his Michigan roots, gaining votes in a state with rising unemployment and struggling auto industry (20% unemployment), to appealing to the Western states (Nevada is one blue state he can easily pull back), while appealing to voters in swing states such as Florida and Ohio who have become rather strongly anti-Obama.

Add into that the electoral gains Republicans will have after the census...and I think Mitt Romney may well be the next President of the United States.

[Yelnoc]

Mitch/Brown anybody?

[Mr. Morden]

Thune surge:

Romney 24.8
Palin 23.2
Thune 20.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Huckabee 7.9
Paul 4.4

[Bull Moose Base]

Thune surge:

Romney 24.8
Palin 23.2
Thune 20.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Huckabee 7.9
Paul 4.4

Why has Pawlenty plummeted since December?

Pawlenty again flips with Palin for 2nd place; Huckabee rebounds slightly, but is still down from where he was pre-Clemmons:

Romney 23.0
Pawlenty 19.2
Palin 17.1
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.8
Barbour 7.5
Gingrich 7.1
Daniels 4.9

Because Thune has surged?  Also, since the earlier one, Daniels finally leaves the door open on a run... and drops off the board.  (Though I get that Thune's not drawing a challenger boosted him.)  You'd think that healthcare reform passing and the stream of articles tying it to RomneyCare would boost all his rivals more than it did.  I'm sort of led to the conclusion that intrade movements are random or driven by people not paying attention.  Unless, Thune insiders who know something we don't went on a shopping spree.

[Mr. Morden]

Daniels slowly declined into Jan/Feb as I guess people started believing the denials, then peaked in late Feb / early March after he finally left the door open to a run.  Since then, he's been declining.  I'm not exactly sure why T-Paw has dropped, though I guess some people might argue that he looks a bit too desperate for the job......as he seems to be criss-crossing the nation non-stop appearing at GOP events, and it's only April 2010 and he still has a job as governor.  It's possible that people were expecting him to have a bigger payoff for his efforts by now (see, e.g., his anemic showing at CPAC), but I think concerns like that are overblown.

But I agree that most of the movement on Intrade at this early stage is random.  I'm just keeping it updated for the historical record, so we can compare back to what it was doing in 2010 18 months from now.  Once the campaign is in full swing next year, the trends will start to look more reasonable as the trading volume increases.

[Poundingtherock]

I'd expect Palin to take the "intrade" lead after this week.  She's got the primetime speech at the SRLC and the huge rally this week with Bachmann and Pawlenty.

[paul718]

Daniels' drop could be a product of his recent C-SPAN interview, where he sounded only nominally interested in running.

[Bull Moose Base]

Daniels slowly declined into Jan/Feb as I guess people started believing the denials, then peaked in late Feb / early March after he finally left the door open to a run.  Since then, he's been declining.  I'm not exactly sure why T-Paw has dropped, though I guess some people might argue that he looks a bit too desperate for the job......as he seems to be criss-crossing the nation non-stop appearing at GOP events, and it's only April 2010 and he still has a job as governor.  It's possible that people were expecting him to have a bigger payoff for his efforts by now (see, e.g., his anemic showing at CPAC), but I think concerns like that are overblown.

But I agree that most of the movement on Intrade at this early stage is random.  I'm just keeping it updated for the historical record, so we can compare back to what it was doing in 2010 18 months from now.  Once the campaign is in full swing next year, the trends will start to look more reasonable as the trading volume increases.

I kind of buy that explanation actually.  Pawlenty has been essentially campaigning and the lack of interest in him does seem kind of palpable.  Whereas Thune is newer and shinier.  It's sort of the difference between a girl having a first date with a guy she has bigger expectations for vs. a second date with a guy who was pretty boring and a bad kisser the first time around.  (Mary Pawlenty may take umbrage at my analogy.  Maybe T-Paw is great in the sack for all we know.)  That said, as you've pointed out, most primary voters are probably yet to absorb the similarity between ObamaCare and RomneyCare, so his numbers should still fall relative to Pawlenty's.   I assume anyone buying on intrade are as much horse race junkies as we are.  Even so...

Daniels' drop could be a product of his recent C-SPAN interview, where he sounded only nominally interested in running.

Yeah, I don't know that that C-SPAN interview got Super Bowl like ratings exactly.  I posted it on this board and you were the only person to respond.  Unless you were the buyer who'd been driving up Daniels's price in February...

[paul718]

Daniels' drop could be a product of his recent C-SPAN interview, where he sounded only nominally interested in running.

Yeah, I don't know that that C-SPAN interview got Super Bowl like ratings exactly.  I posted it on this board and you were the only person to respond.  Unless you were the buyer who'd been driving up Daniels's price in February...

I would think that the people who invest in inTrade paid attention to that interview.

[Derek]

Idk how that works exactly but I'd say it goes:

Romney
Daniels
Pawlenty
Huckabee
Palin
Thune

[Mr. Morden]

The Thune bubble deflates slightly:

Romney 26.8
Palin 23.9
Thune 16.1
Pawlenty 8.8
Huckabee 7.6
Gingrich 5.5

[Bull Moose Base]

Surprised Palin remains so high.  She's far better known than any other Republican and I think she's only led a single poll out of many taken.  And I don't see how Thune can be so far ahead of Pawlenty without doing all that much to indicate he even wants to run.

[Derek]

Romney has the best chance due to name recognition that's what allowed ppl like Dole and McCain to be the nominees.

[Poundingtherock]

Palin 26.6
Romney 26
Thune 16.6

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I need to go buy myself some Romney.

[Poundingtherock]

Well, the traders continue to see a two-way matchup.

Palin 27
Romney 26.5

Palin running is at 63.3.

[Eraserhead]

Romney is really undervalued.

[Derek]

Romney is still my prediction for 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think Romney at 26.5 is undervalued.  I think Romney at a 26.5% chance at the nomination is about right.  I just think everyone else (except Pawlenty and possibly Daniels) is overvalued.  Of course, Intrade always tends to overestimate the longshots.

[Poundingtherock]

Romney is dramatically overpriced for a guy with such low favorables with Republicans.  Thune is as well

I'd agree that Pawlenty is underpriced a little bit.  But I think Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Daniels are about right.

[© tweed]

Romney is really undervalued.

oh burn it down

maybe he is undervalued in the sense that he is likely to be traded above 27 at some point but more than that is just card tricks

[Poundingtherock]

Palin at 28.5.