The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Torie]

Wow, intrade is dumb. Really, Gingrich has a better chance at the nomination?

You think Gingrich and Santorum should switch out their respective 2.7% and 2.3% odds?

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum surges, and Gingrich crashes down to 6th place, tied with Paul Ryan, and behind Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.  The market now thinks there's a 40% chance that Gingrich is out of the race by the end of the month.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney, Bush, Gingrich

GOP nomination

Romney 85.6
Santorum 6.2
Paul 1.0
J. Bush 0.9
Christie 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Ryan 0.4

GOP race to be decided by brokered convention: 18.0

Gingrich to drop out by the end of March: 40.0
Santorum to drop out by the end of March: 9.0

[Clinton 2016]

Something tells me this GOP race will be over on late may.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum has lost nearly all the ground he gained off of his AL and MS wins.

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP nomination

Romney 88.9
Santorum 3.1
J. Bush 1.5
Paul 1.4
Christie 1.0
Gingrich 0.5

Illinois

Romney 85.1
Santorum 14.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ron Paul and the people who aren't even running seem quite overvalued to me.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Puerto Rico update:

Romney 89.0
Santorum 2.6
J. Bush 1.5
Paul 1.3
Daniels 0.5
Gingrich 0.5
Christie 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Illinois update.  If Romney wins particularly big tomorrow, I assume he'll make it up to 90.  How long will he stay there?  And will Bush pass Santorum for 2nd place?

GOP nomination

Romney 89.5
Santorum 2.2
J. Bush 2.1
Paul 1.4
Gingrich 0.7
Christie 0.4

Illinois

Romney 97.8
Santorum 3.0

Louisiana

Santorum 74.0
Romney 23.9
Gingrich 4.6

Next candidate to drop out of race for nomination

Gingrich 80.0
Santorum 20.0

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I wonder if Romney can win LA, it should be more favorable terrain for him than AL or MS were...

[J. J.]

I wonder if Romney can win LA, it should be more favorable terrain for him than AL or MS were...

I've been speculating about the "hat trick,"  PR, IL, LA. 

I think LA is possible.  For a southern state, it has a fairly large Catholic population, 28%; white Evangelicals are at 31%.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Not gonna happen.

Also, Bush is massively overvalued.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Illinois update: Romney's now above 90.  Is he there for good?  Santorum and Gingrich are given a combined probability of winning the GOP nomination that's equal to that of Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination.

Up: Romney
Down: Bush

GOP nomination

Romney 91.9
Santorum 1.5
Paul 1.2
J. Bush 1.1
Christie 0.5
Daniels 0.5
Gingrich 0.5

Dem. nomination

Obama 96.5
Clinton 2.0
Biden 1.5

[Roma Caput Mundi]

What are the numbers for Louisiana?

[Mr. Morden]

What are the numbers for Louisiana?

Louisiana

Santorum 89.8
Romney 9.1
Gingrich 2.0

Maryland

Romney 95.9
Santorum 4.0

Wisconsin

Santorum 49.7
Romney 49.5

[TheGlobalizer]

Santorum could not win Maryland in 100 million years.  Romney's about as good of a fit as you get in MD this side of John McCain.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Wisconsin could be interesting.

[Jayhawker]

It's time for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out. Romney's certainly going to win this.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

It's time for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out. Romney's certainly going to win this.

That would certainly kill the activity on this board for at least a couple of months.

[Torie]

Wisconsin could be interesting.

Yes, I agree. Among other things, north of Milwaukee it has a dovish streak, with the Pubs sans Paul being hawks - with Rick the most hawkish at all (I don't bother spending any time on Newt anymore, and he won't be going to Wisconsin anyway, because it is not a proportional state (it's winner take all by CD), and so he can't hurt Mittens, but only help him). I will be looking for any echoes of that when the state votes.

[Lief]

Wisconsin should act similar to Ohio. Starts with a big Santorum lead, Romney whittles it down by out-spending him, Mitt wins by a point or two the night of once the suburbs come in. Boring.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush's endorsement of Romney causes Bush's share price to crumble.  Romney goes even higher.

Romney 92.6
Santorum 1.8
Paul 1.4
Gingrich 0.7
Palin 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Christie 0.4

[Old Europe]

Rick Santorum to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012: 1.5%

Hillary Clinton to be Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2012: 2.0%

*lol*

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Louisiana update: Rubio's surged back up to 35 to be the veep nominee, with McDonnell now in 2nd (though a very distant second).

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 92.6
Santorum 1.7
Paul 1.4
J. Bush 0.5
Palin 0.5
Christie 0.4
Gingrich 0.4

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 35.0
McDonnell 9.0
Christie 8.0
Martinez 7.0
Portman 5.0
Santorum 4.3
Daniels 3.5
McMorris Rodgers 3.5
Ryan 3.0
Thune 3.0

Louisiana

Santorum 98.3
Romney 2.8

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Louisiana update: Nothing really changes.

Romney 92.5
Santorum 1.7
Paul 1.4
Huckabee 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Gingrich 0.5
Palin 0.5
Christie 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum's share price is now so dead that it's trading at half the price of Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

GOP presidential nomination

Romney 92.9
Paul 1.3
Santorum 1.0
J. Bush 0.7
Huckabee 0.5
Palin 0.4
Christie 0.3
Gingrich 0.3

GOP VP nomination

Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Dem. presidential nomination

Obama 96.5
Clinton 2.0
Biden 1.5

Dem. VP nomination

Biden 92.4
Clinton 7.0
Cuomo 0.5

Maryland

Romney 98.5
Santorum 1.9

Wisconsin

Romney 90.7
Santorum 9.7

[J. J.]

Just listing the people actually in the race for the nomination:

Romney    93.3% 

Santorum  1.0%

Paul          1.1%

Gingrich    0.3%