The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[feeblepizza]

Apparently a lot of people are still dubious concerning Palin's future as a candidate, not to mention her changes at victory.

[Beet]

Apparently a lot of people are still dubious concerning Palin's future as a candidate, not to mention her changes at victory.

The people at Intrade aren't exactly the brightest bulbs in the universe. Btw, does anyone here trade on Intrade? If so what has been your experience with the site? Satisfied / dissatisfied?

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 29.6
Thune 19.0
Palin 18.8
Pawlenty 13.5
Gingrich 9.0
Huckabee 7.9
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
J. Bush 6.0
Pence 5.0

At roughly this time four years ago, Obama was at 5.0 and McCain was at 38.4:

Democratic:

Clinton 48.1
Gore 17.0
Edwards 13.9
Obama 5.0
Kerry 3.3
Bayh 3.1
Feingold 2.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 1.7
Vilsack 1.2
Clark 1.0

Republicans:

McCain 38.4
Giulani 18.6
Romney 15.0
Allen 6.6
Huckabee 6.3
Rice 4.0
Gingrich 3.0
Frist 1.7
Brownback 1.2

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, and also, four years ago, Giuliani was leading the national polls, a few points ahead of John McCain and Condoleeza Rice:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2008_presidential_candidates

And on the Democratic side, Clinton was in the lead, and Obama was in second place once they started including his name in the polls in late October.  Gore had been in second place up to that point:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_2008_presidential_candidates

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney 29.6
Thune 19.0
Palin 18.8
Pawlenty 13.5
Gingrich 9.0
Huckabee 7.9
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
J. Bush 6.0
Pence 5.0

those are the only three who have a chance, IMO.

[Bull Moose Base]

From August 2006:

About a month since we last posted the numbers, net change from 7/25 in ()

Democrats

Clinton 40.5 (-1.9)
Warner 18.5 (-0.5)
Gore 15.0 (+0.2)
Edwards 9.0 (0)
Feingold 3.6 (+1.3)
Kerry 3.3 (0)
Obama 2.2 (+0.2)
Bayh 2.2 (+ ~0.4)
Others under 2.0

Republicans

McCain 38.0 (-0.4)
Giuliani 16.0 (+1.5)
Romney 13.2 (+2.8 )
Allen 13.0 (-3.5)
Rice 5.9 (+0.9)
Gingrich 3.2 (+0.5)
Huckabee 2.2 (-0.4)
Others under 2.0

At roughly this time four years ago, Obama was at 5.0 and McCain was at 38.4:

Democratic:

Clinton 48.1
Gore 17.0
Edwards 13.9
Obama 5.0
Kerry 3.3
Bayh 3.1
Feingold 2.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 1.7
Vilsack 1.2
Clark 1.0

Republicans:

McCain 38.4
Giulani 18.6
Romney 15.0
Allen 6.6
Huckabee 6.3
Rice 4.0
Gingrich 3.0
Frist 1.7
Brownback 1.2

Wait, why did Mark Warner disappear from August to October?

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Wait, why did Mark Warner disappear from August to October?

Dropped out in early October, IIRC.

[tpfkaw]

Romney 29.6
Thune 19.0
Palin 18.8
Pawlenty 13.5
Gingrich 9.0
Huckabee 7.9
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
J. Bush 6.0
Pence 5.0

those are the only three who have a chance, IMO.

Funny, because those are the three I'd consider to have the least chance (besides Jeb).

[Mr. Morden]

Wait, why did Mark Warner disappear from August to October?

Jfern posted those numbers immediately after this happened:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/12/AR2006101200510.html

[Mr. Morden]

Also, the latest #s on Betfair's probabilities for the following people to be elected president in 2012:

Obama 47%
Romney 10%
Palin 7%
Thune 7%
Daniels 6%
H. Clinton 3%
Gingrich 3%
Pawlenty 3%
Huckabee 3%

Intrade doesn't have a "winning individual" market for 2012 yet, but it does list the #s on each party winning the White House:

Dems 62.8
GOP 37.4
other 3.4

[Mr. Morden]

Christie-mentum:

Romney 31.2
Palin 19.0
Thune 18.5
Pawlenty 12.0
Christie 9.9
Gingrich 8.6
Huckabee 8.4
Daniels 6.6
Barbour 6.5
J. Bush 6.1
Pence 6.1
Paul 5.2

[Mr. Morden]

From four years ago at this time:

Democrats:

Clinton 52.1
Gore 13.5
Obama 12.9
Edwards 9.0
Kerry 3.1
Bayh 2.4
Vilsack 2.2
Feingold 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Biden 1.5
Clark 1.4

Republicans:

McCain 44.5
Romney 14.0
Giulani 13.5
Huckabee 6.0
Rice 4.1
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 3.4
Allen 3.0
Brownback 1.3
Frist 1.2

So, at least as of this particular snapshot in time, the top four on Inrade in each party was more or less an accurate prediction of who the eventual top contenders would be (except for the inclusion of Gore).  Of course, there were only four people in each party who were above 5.0 at that time.  Whereas now, it's a lot more wide open, and there are 12 people above 5.0 for the 2012 GOP nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-midterm update.  We'll see how things change after the election.  Maybe Thune will get a boost after he gets 100% of the vote in his reelection race. 

I'm only going to count contracts in which the volume is at least 50 shares:

Winning party, 2012 presidential election:

Dems 60.9
GOP 37.5
3rd party 3.1

GOP nominee:

Romney 29.5
Thune 18.7
Palin 16.2
Pawlenty 11.8
Christie 9.9
Gingrich 6.8
Daniels 6.6
Huckabee 6.6
Barbour 6.5
J. Bush 6.3
Pence 6.1
Paul 6.0
P. Ryan 4.9
DeMint 4.4
Giuliani 4.0
Johnson 2.9
Santorum 2.9

Dem. nominee:

Obama 83.0
Clinton 8.0

Will Palin run for president?
yes 67.0

[Mr. Morden]

After the election:

Winning party, 2012 presidential election:

Dems 57.1
GOP 42.0
3rd party 3.5

GOP nominee:

Romney 27.0
Thune 18.3
Palin 17.0
Pawlenty 11.8
Gingrich 6.8
Huckabee 6.6
Barbour 6.5
J. Bush 6.3
Christie 5.9
Daniels 5.8
Pence 5.5
Paul 5.1
Ryan 4.9
DeMint 4.4
Giuliani 4.0
Rubio 3.7
Johnson 3.6

Dem. nominee:

Obama 83.0
Clinton 8.0

Will Palin run for president?
yes 67.4

[Mr. Morden]

A bunch of volatility over the last few days culminated in this sudden drop in nearly everyone's prices:

Romney 22.8
Palin 18.0
Thune 15.9
Pawlenty 8.7
Huckabee 7.2
J. Bush 6.0
Daniels 5.9
Gingrich 5.3
Ryan 4.4
Rubio 2.5

At least the top 10 now adds up to only 97, rather than a hundred and something ridiculous.

[Yelnoc]

Palin and Daniels were the only two whose chances rose.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP nomination:

Romney 24.8
Palin 18.9
Thune 13.6
Pawlenty 7.8
Huckabee 6.2
Gingrich 5.6
J. Bush 5.5
Daniels 4.9
Christie 3.9
Ryan 3.2
Rubio 2.7
Barbour 2.6
Paul 2.0
Johnson 1.6
Pence 1.5

Winning party:

Dems 60.0
GOP 42.0
3rd party / indy 3.4

[Bull Moose Base]

GOP nomination:

Romney 24.8
Palin 18.9
Thune 13.6
Pawlenty 7.8
Huckabee 6.2
Gingrich 5.6
J. Bush 5.5
Daniels 4.9
Christie 3.9
Ryan 3.2
Rubio 2.7
Barbour 2.6
Paul 2.0
Johnson 1.6
Pence 1.5

Winning party:

Dems 60.0
GOP 42.0
3rd party / indy 3.4

Thune looks like he's falling prey to the curse of winning 100% of the vote.

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

[Poundingtherock]

I wonder if Johnson can get hot in New Hampshire.  Perhaps Palin, Pawlenty, and co. should tell all their supporter to all vote for Johnson in New Hampshire so he can gut out a win and end the Romney campaign.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

[Brittain33]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

[feeblepizza]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/pence-will-run-for-governor

I'll say that the official announcement should come in December.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/pence-will-run-for-governor

I'll say that the official announcement should come in December.

seems more like speculation, if you're Pence and know you have a shot at winning IA, why would you run for gov?

[Mr. Morden]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/pence-will-run-for-governor

Yeah, we had a thread discussing that a while ago.  Nothing there is official.  That's one GOP operative in Indiana saying that Pence's people have told him that he's running for governor.  Neither Pence nor his underlings have confirmed it on the record.  A few days after that story came out, Pence said that he hasn't decided what to do yet, and won't be making any announcements on this until after the first of the year:

http://www.gop12.com/2010/11/pence-2012-decision-after-january.html

[Brittain33]

Oh, oops.

In any case, no House member has won the White House directly since James Garfield, I think.