The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Romney and Huckabee both drop, while Thune and Pawlenty surge to 3rd and 4th respectively.  Huckabee's price has been volatile.  It was dropping all week, then surged again today on his good poll numbers, and has now dropped again.

Winning party
Dems 62.3
GOP 37.0
other 2.8

GOP nomination
Romney 21.1
Palin 13.6
Thune 11.7
Pawlenty 10.8
Huckabee 8.7
Daniels 8.0
Gingrich 4.3
Pence 3.5
Barbour 2.1
Giuliani 1.9
Bachmann 1.8
Christie 1.7
Paul 1.7
Huntsman 1.6
Trump 1.5

[TomC]

So, has anyone here actually traded on intrade? It seems it is 4.99/mo for an account- and $20 for withdrawing money and an extra $30 if FedEx delivers the check. Is that it or are there other fees? Are there monetary conversion fees since intrade is not based in U.S.?

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney, Thune, Huckabee, Bachmann, Huntsman
Down: Pence (drops to 0.1), Pawlenty

GOP nomination
Romney 22.5
Thune 12.9
Palin 12.8
Huckabee 9.8
Pawlenty 9.8
Daniels 7.9
Gingrich 4.7
Bachmann 4.0
Barbour 3.0
Huntsman 3.0
Giuliani 2.9
Christie 1.9
DeMint 1.7
Trump 1.6
Johnson 1.5

Winning individual
Obama 62.2
Romney 12.0
Thune 6.5
Huckabee 5.9
Daniels 5.0
Pawlenty 5.0
Palin 4.5
Biden 2.0

Hillary Clinton to be Dem. VP nominee 15.0
Marco Rubio to be GOP VP nominee 24.9
Chris Christie to be GOP VP nominee 11.0
Palin to run for president 60.6
Trump to run for president 32.0

[Bull Moose Base]

Up: Romney, Thune, Huckabee, Bachmann, Huntsman
Down: Pence (drops to 0.1), Pawlenty

GOP nomination
Romney 22.5
Thune 12.9
Palin 12.8
Huckabee 9.8
Pawlenty 9.8
Daniels 7.9
Gingrich 4.7
Bachmann 4.0
Barbour 3.0
Huntsman 3.0
Giuliani 2.9
Christie 1.9
DeMint 1.7
Trump 1.6
Johnson 1.5

Winning individual
Obama 62.2
Romney 12.0
Thune 6.5
Huckabee 5.9
Daniels 5.0
Pawlenty 5.0
Palin 4.5
Biden 2.0

Hillary Clinton to be Dem. VP nominee 15.0
Marco Rubio to be GOP VP nominee 24.9
Chris Christie to be GOP VP nominee 11.0
Palin to run for president 60.6
Trump to run for president 32.0

Which figure do you use?  Bid or Ask?  And what's the difference again?  I'm glad I was too lazy to figure it out and put $ on Pence which I'd been meaning to.

[Mr. Morden]

Which figure do you use?  Bid or Ask?  And what's the difference again?  I'm glad I was too lazy to figure it out and put $ on Pence which I'd been meaning to.

"Bid" and "ask" are the latest prices being offered by those looking to buy and sell the shares respectively.  I use "last" which is the latest actual transaction price.

[Yelnoc]

Comparing the "Winning Individual" to "GOP Nomination" is very interesting.  Roughly a third of Romney, Thune, Pawlenty, and Huckabee supporters think their candidate will win the election while most of the Daniels supporters think he will win.  I have to ask, though, why is Biden trading at all in the "Winning Individual" category?

[Mr. Morden]

Comparing the "Winning Individual" to "GOP Nomination" is very interesting.  Roughly a third of Romney, Thune, Pawlenty, and Huckabee supporters think their candidate will win the election while most of the Daniels supporters think he will win.  I have to ask, though, why is Biden trading at all in the "Winning Individual" category?

Well, if something happens to Obama, then of course Biden is a possibility to be elected in 2012.

Also, "supporters" isn't really the right word for it.  You can bet on a candidate's chances without actually supporting them.

[Yelnoc]

Comparing the "Winning Individual" to "GOP Nomination" is very interesting.  Roughly a third of Romney, Thune, Pawlenty, and Huckabee supporters think their candidate will win the election while most of the Daniels supporters think he will win.  I have to ask, though, why is Biden trading at all in the "Winning Individual" category?

Well, if something happens to Obama, then of course Biden is a possibility to be elected in 2012.

Also, "supporters" isn't really the right word for it.  You can bet on a candidate's chances without actually supporting them.

True, though I would think that political convictions motivate much of the trading in these futures.

[Psychic Octopus]

There was a massive selloff today, it appears, with everybody losing their positioning and Trump's share being the only one to increase. Why did Thune's share drop the most, though? It appears he lost about five points.

[Likely Voter]

There was a massive selloff today, it appears, with everybody losing their positioning and Trump's share being the only one to increase. Why did Thune's share drop the most, though? It appears he lost about five points.

maybe because there was article today in Politico that implies Thune is leaning towards staying in Senate, or at least very much on fence

[Yelnoc]

For the Curious, here is everyone trading at 1 or over ("last" price).

Romney 23.8
Palin 11.5
Thune 10.9
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.4
Daniels 7.9
Huntsman 5.5
Gingrich 5.2
Barbour 3.6
Bachmann 3.1
Bush 2.5
Giuliani 2.1
Trump 2.0
Christie 1.9
DeMint 1.6
Johnson 1.2
Paul 1.1

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Huntsman, Bush
Down: Thune, Palin, Pawlenty, Huckabee

Winning party
Dems 62.5
GOP 36.2
other 2.3

Democrats
Obama 91.5
Clinton 7.5

Republicans
Romney 22.5
Thune 11.2
Palin 11.0
Pawlenty 8.7
Huckabee 8.4
Daniels 7.7
Huntsman 5.2
Gingrich 4.7
Barbour 3.5
Bachmann 3.0
J. Bush 2.4
Giuliani 2.1
Christie 1.9
Trump 1.6
DeMint 1.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 18.2
Edwards 15.3
Gore 11.0
Richardson 2.3
Biden 1.6
Clark 1.5
Vilsack 1.2
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.2
Giuliani 19.9
Romney 17.6
Gingrich 5.0
Hagel 5.0
Huckabee 4.4
Brownback 4.0
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.3
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Pataki 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Hours after I posted that update, there was a shakeup at the top, so that the top 8 now looks like this:

Up: Romney, Huckabee, Daniels, Gingrich
Down: Thune

Romney 25.0
Palin 10.8
Huckabee 9.5
Daniels 9.1
Pawlenty 8.8
Thune 8.6
Huntsman 6.0
Gingrich 5.9

I think that's the first time Huckabee's been in the top 3 since before the Clemmons cop killing episode.

[Yelnoc]

I can see why Gingrich's chances would rise, considering the recent speculation, but what caused the Daniels, Huckabee, and Romney jumps I wonder?

[Bull Moose Base]

This is a weird race when #s 2-4 (and 6) on intrade seem about as likely to skip the race as they are to run.  I assume the Thune drop is off the noise about his cold feet.

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-CPAC straw poll.  Maybe the straw poll results will move a few of these numbers slightly.  Maybe not.  Daniels is in 3rd place again.

Up: Trump
Down: Romney, Thune

Romney 23.6
Palin 11.7
Daniels 9.9
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.6
Thune 6.1
Gingrich 5.4
Huntsman 5.4
Barbour 3.8
Bachmann 3.5
Trump 2.7
Christie 2.0
Paul 1.8
Giuliani 1.6
DeMint 1.5

Thune's share price has taken a pounding since doubts have grown about him deciding to run.  Of course, if you think Thune will actually run in the end, then right now is a great time to buy.

Speaking of which, here are Intrade's odds on the following people running (only listing cases where there are more than 20 shares traded):

Romney 97.4
Pawlenty 90.0
Gingrich 85.0
Barbour 70.0
Johnson 70.0
Santorum 70.0
Palin 62.9
Daniels 61.0
Huntsman 60.0
Huckabee 50.0
Thune 45.0
Trump 30.0
Bolton 20.0
Giuliani 20.0
J. Bush 11.0
Perry 10.0
Christie 7.0
Bloomberg 6.0
Pence 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

Thune's share price has been bouncing around like mad, as people try to read his intentions.  The price was below 5 just a few hours ago.

Up: Thune, Christie
Down: Barbour

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 23.1
Palin 10.9
Daniels 10.2
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.4
Thune 8.0
Huntsman 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Christie 3.1
Barbour 2.7
Bachmann 2.6
Paul 2.1
Trump 1.8
J. Bush 1.6
Giuliani 1.5

GOP VP nominee (only counting those w/ at least 20 shares traded)

Rubio 24.9
Christie 14.9
Thune 10.0
Jindal 9.0

[Mr. Morden]

Aftermath of Thune announcement:

Up: Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour
Down: Thune (drops all the way down to 0.4)

Romney 25.3
Palin 10.6
Daniels 10.4
Pawlenty 10.3
Huckabee 8.5
Gingrich 5.0
Barbour 4.6
Huntsman 4.2
Christie 3.8
Bachmann 3.0
Trump 2.4
Paul 2.2
J. Bush 1.3
Giuliani 1.1
Ryan 1.1

Will the following people run?

Romney 97.4
Pawlenty 90.0
Santorum 79.9
Johnson 75.0
Huntsman 69.0
Gingrich 66.0
Daniels 60.5
Palin 59.7
Barbour 55.0
Huckabee 40.0
Trump 30.0
Bolton 20.0
Giuliani 20.0
Christie 17.9
J. Bush 7.2
Bloomberg 6.0
Thune 2.5
Pence 2.0

[Yelnoc]

I see jmfcst hasn't got rid of his Pence shares

[Mr. Morden]

At least going by Intrade, Pawlenty has gained the most from Thune's decision.  He's gained some more in the last couple of hours, and is now up to 2nd place, and his highest share price since the midterms.  Top 5 is now:

Romney 24.3
Pawlenty 10.9
Palin 10.1
Daniels 10.0
Huckabee 8.5

Of course, Romney and Pawlenty are the only people on that list who are all but certain to run.  Uncertainty about whether they'll run is keeping down the share price of Daniels, Palin, and (especially) Huckabee.  If all three of them announced their candidacy tomorrow, they'd move ahead of Pawlenty, and he'd drop to 5th place.

[Mr. Morden]

Possibly last update before someone else announces.  If Gingrich announces that he's running, how much of a boost will his share price get?

up: Daniels (now back up to 3rd place)

GOP nominee

Romney 25.0
Pawlenty 11.8
Daniels 11.4
Palin 9.6
Huckabee 8.2
Gingrich 5.5
Huntsman 4.9
Bachmann 3.9
Barbour 3.5
Christie 3.1
Trump 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.6

Dem nominee

Obama 89.7
Clinton 5.2
Biden 4.0

Clinton to be Dem. VP nominee 7.5

[Bull Moose Base]

Mm... Skeptical Gingrich will announce in March.  What for?  There are no repercussions from not following the timing he laid out when he thought everyone else would be in by then.  Also think he's presumed to be  running so an announced run wont change his trades.  Maybe a small bump.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/gingrich-says-decision-on-presidential-run-to-come-1279992.html

"Gingrich said before the dinner that he's within a week or two of deciding whether to run for president."

He said that on Thursday.  Just a few days ago.  Why would he say that if he doesn't intend to announce something?

[Mr. Morden]

Palin now seems to be in freefall, down to 5th place:

Romney 24.6
Daniels 11.8
Pawlenty 11.8
Huckabee 8.4
Palin 7.5
Gingrich 5.3
Huntsman 4.9
Bachmann 4.1
Christie 3.4
Barbour 3.2
Trump 2.2
J. Bush 1.6
Paul 1.6
Giuliani 1.2
Perry 1.0

And "Palin to run" is down to 46.6, near the all time low.

[Bull Moose Base]

Guess I'm wrong on newt.  Thought he'd avoid campaign finance laws longer.   Anything happen to suddenly drop Palin to run?  Seems random.  She's speaking in India in March which seems un-Paliny if she wasn't trying to build up her image for a run.