The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Thune's share price has been bouncing around like mad, as people try to read his intentions.  The price was below 5 just a few hours ago.

Up: Thune, Christie
Down: Barbour

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 23.1
Palin 10.9
Daniels 10.2
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.4
Thune 8.0
Huntsman 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Christie 3.1
Barbour 2.7
Bachmann 2.6
Paul 2.1
Trump 1.8
J. Bush 1.6
Giuliani 1.5

GOP VP nominee (only counting those w/ at least 20 shares traded)

Rubio 24.9
Christie 14.9
Thune 10.0
Jindal 9.0

[Mr. Morden]

Aftermath of Thune announcement:

Up: Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour
Down: Thune (drops all the way down to 0.4)

Romney 25.3
Palin 10.6
Daniels 10.4
Pawlenty 10.3
Huckabee 8.5
Gingrich 5.0
Barbour 4.6
Huntsman 4.2
Christie 3.8
Bachmann 3.0
Trump 2.4
Paul 2.2
J. Bush 1.3
Giuliani 1.1
Ryan 1.1

Will the following people run?

Romney 97.4
Pawlenty 90.0
Santorum 79.9
Johnson 75.0
Huntsman 69.0
Gingrich 66.0
Daniels 60.5
Palin 59.7
Barbour 55.0
Huckabee 40.0
Trump 30.0
Bolton 20.0
Giuliani 20.0
Christie 17.9
J. Bush 7.2
Bloomberg 6.0
Thune 2.5
Pence 2.0

[Yelnoc]

I see jmfcst hasn't got rid of his Pence shares

[Mr. Morden]

At least going by Intrade, Pawlenty has gained the most from Thune's decision.  He's gained some more in the last couple of hours, and is now up to 2nd place, and his highest share price since the midterms.  Top 5 is now:

Romney 24.3
Pawlenty 10.9
Palin 10.1
Daniels 10.0
Huckabee 8.5

Of course, Romney and Pawlenty are the only people on that list who are all but certain to run.  Uncertainty about whether they'll run is keeping down the share price of Daniels, Palin, and (especially) Huckabee.  If all three of them announced their candidacy tomorrow, they'd move ahead of Pawlenty, and he'd drop to 5th place.

[Mr. Morden]

Possibly last update before someone else announces.  If Gingrich announces that he's running, how much of a boost will his share price get?

up: Daniels (now back up to 3rd place)

GOP nominee

Romney 25.0
Pawlenty 11.8
Daniels 11.4
Palin 9.6
Huckabee 8.2
Gingrich 5.5
Huntsman 4.9
Bachmann 3.9
Barbour 3.5
Christie 3.1
Trump 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.6

Dem nominee

Obama 89.7
Clinton 5.2
Biden 4.0

Clinton to be Dem. VP nominee 7.5

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Mm... Skeptical Gingrich will announce in March.  What for?  There are no repercussions from not following the timing he laid out when he thought everyone else would be in by then.  Also think he's presumed to be  running so an announced run wont change his trades.  Maybe a small bump.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/gingrich-says-decision-on-presidential-run-to-come-1279992.html

"Gingrich said before the dinner that he's within a week or two of deciding whether to run for president."

He said that on Thursday.  Just a few days ago.  Why would he say that if he doesn't intend to announce something?

[Mr. Morden]

Palin now seems to be in freefall, down to 5th place:

Romney 24.6
Daniels 11.8
Pawlenty 11.8
Huckabee 8.4
Palin 7.5
Gingrich 5.3
Huntsman 4.9
Bachmann 4.1
Christie 3.4
Barbour 3.2
Trump 2.2
J. Bush 1.6
Paul 1.6
Giuliani 1.2
Perry 1.0

And "Palin to run" is down to 46.6, near the all time low.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Guess I'm wrong on newt.  Thought he'd avoid campaign finance laws longer.   Anything happen to suddenly drop Palin to run?  Seems random.  She's speaking in India in March which seems un-Paliny if she wasn't trying to build up her image for a run.

[Gravis Marketing]

Daniels goes up?

[Yelnoc]

Daniels goes up?

Is that shocking news?

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Daniels goes up?

Is that shocking news?

I'd argue it makes little sense for him to go up in the past week.  In fact the only Daniels activity in the past week has been bucking the party and killing Indiana's new anti-union bills.  He could get past that in a primary but why would it boost his price?  Seems wrong.  He also hasn't made any new moves toward running.  His price is comparable to Pawlenty who is basically already running and comparably strong on paper if not stronger.

I also don't see why Palin's loss (whatever drove it in past week I'm not clear on) should be Daniels's gain.  Don't see her supporters going to him if she doesn't run or flops but to someone who'd be tougher for him to beat than Palin.  I actually think Daniels and Palin's chances are correlated.  I think his best path is if he clears out the grown-up wing while she does the Tea Party side.  And her best path might be the same thing.  So one's momentum should help the other.

[Yelnoc]

Daniels goes up?

Is that shocking news?

I'd argue it makes little sense for him to go up in the past week.  In fact the only Daniels activity in the past week has been bucking the party and killing Indiana's new anti-union bills.  He could get past that in a primary but why would it boost his price?  Seems wrong.  He also hasn't made any new moves toward running.  His price is comparable to Pawlenty who is basically already running and comparably strong on paper if not stronger.

I also don't see why Palin's loss (whatever drove it in past week I'm not clear on) should be Daniels's gain.  Don't see her supporters going to him if she doesn't run or flops but to someone who'd be tougher for him to beat than Palin.  I actually think Daniels and Palin's chances are correlated.  I think his best path is if he clears out the grown-up wing while she does the Tea Party side.  And her best path might be the same thing.  So one's momentum should help the other.

Daniels only went up 1.3, within the realm of statistical noise.  That said, Pawlenty is a much weaker potential candidate than Daniels; the fact that their share prices are almost the same despite Pawlenty clearly in the running and Daniels on the fence is indicative of that.  As to Palin, I highly doubt her fall and Daniels gain are in any way related.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin's share price has really taken a pounding in recent months (especially post-Tucson).  As recently as Christmas Day, she was at 19.1, so we have about a 2/3rds drop since then.  Over the same timeframe, Pawlenty's price has more than doubled.

Anyway, following Gingrich's less than smooth announcement:

Up: Gingrich, Barbour
Down: Daniels, Palin

Romney 25.3
Pawlenty 12.2
Daniels 9.8
Huckabee 8.9
Palin 6.5
Gingrich 6.3
Barbour 4.3
Huntsman 4.3
Bachmann 4.2
Christie 2.9
Trump 2.4
Paul 1.9
J. Bush 1.3

On the other end of the spectrum, Buddy Roemer's announcement doubled his share price from 0.1 to 0.2.  Herman Cain is at 0.3.

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 46.0
Obama 24.5
Gore 12.9
Edwards 9.3
Richardson 3.2
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4

Republicans
Giuliani 34.9
McCain 30.0
Romney 19.7
Gingrich 4.9
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4

[RogueBeaver]

In retrospect, the fact that Giuliani was a media candidate with no base ("roof without a foundation") and that the Dems were desperate to toss their polarizing dynast under the bus, plus their history of bucking the frontrunner in favor of a promising dark horse, were ignored. Given that Romney isn't splitting his base with anyone like Hillary did with WWC voters in Iowa, like Barbour/Gingrich could well in the South, and Pawlenty/Gingrich/Barbour split the SoCon vote, I see no reason to doubt the heavy odds favouring a Romney nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty has been surging like mad this week.  Anyone who bought his shares about three months ago has now tripled their money:

GOP nominee

Romney 25.4
Pawlenty 19.2
Daniels 10.7
Huckabee 8.6
Palin 6.2
Gingrich 5.7
Bachmann 4.2
Barbour 4.2
Huntsman 4.2
Christie 2.9
Trump 2.0
Paul 1.9
J. Bush 1.1
Johnson 1.0
Rubio 0.9

Dem. nominee

Obama 90.0
Clinton 5.1
Biden 3.2

[The Mikado]

Trump's overpriced even at 2.  Bachmann's way overpriced at 4.2.  Gingrich might be a bit underpriced.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Pawlenty has been surging like mad this week.  Anyone who bought his shares about three months ago has now tripled their money:

Pawlenty has shown strength till now only among the Beltway insiders. His performance in the last Iowa poll was pitiful and I highly doubt that if Huckabee and Palin don't run he will be the beneficiary.

[RogueBeaver]

Then the obvious beneficiaries would be Gingrich or Barbour. Though IMO anyone who thinks Bachmann and Barbour have equal shots at the nomination, or that Pawlenty has a better chance than Gingrich, is either a) deluded b) forgot GOP primary dynamics c) both.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

I had thought Palin would try to get in before Bachmann but Palin's latest Hannity interview suggests she won't get in first.  I have to think if Bachmann gets in, Palin has little rationale for a run herself and may just endorse her, which would bring MB a big boost.  Huckabee supporters, in the event he passes, would Id bet fragment between Palwenty, Santorum, Bachmann, and even Romney against Huckabee's wishes and in South Carolin, Barbour and Gingrich as well.  Huckabee endorsing someone could help that person but Palin's supporters seem more inclined to follow orders.  

I think it would make Iowa unpredictable.  And if Pawlenty didn't surge in Iowa he'd be almost done.  So he could win but I agree with Lyndon that its only the intelligentsia that is wild about him and they seem to think everyone shares their lack of enthusiasm for populists.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty and Huckabee both drop, though they remain firmly in 2nd and 4th place respectively.  Palin to run for president has dropped all the way to 38.1:

Romney 24.6
Pawlenty 18.1
Daniels 10.2
Huckabee 7.2
Palin 6.2
Gingrich 5.7
Bachmann 4.2
Barbour 4.2
Huntsman 4.0
Christie 2.8
Trump 2.5
Paul 1.4
J. Bush 1.0
Giuliani 1.0
Rubio 0.9

Party to win the White House:
Dems 62.1
GOP 35.3
3rd party 2.4

Senate control:
GOP 66.0
Dems 28.6
"neither" 3.0

[Mr. Morden]

First update post-Pawlenty exploratory announcement.

GOP nominee
Up: Pawlenty, Barbour
Down: Daniels

Romney 24.1
Pawlenty 19.3
Daniels 8.9
Huckabee 6.8
Palin 6.4
Barbour 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Bachmann 4.8
Huntsman 3.9
Christie 3.0
Trump 2.6
Paul 1.7
Giuliani 1.0
J. Bush 0.9

Winning individual

Obama 60.8
Romney 11.6
Pawlenty 9.0
Huckabee 4.9
Daniels 4.7
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.0
Biden 1.6
Palin 0.5

Yes, Paul's odds on winning the presidency are trading higher than his odds on winning the GOP nomination.  I suppose the idea is that he could run as an Indy.

[Yelnoc]

Wow Pawlenty jumped.  I wonder how long that will last.

[milhouse24]

Wow Pawlenty jumped.  I wonder how long that will last.

T-Paw jumped because he is the only one that announced.

When everyone else announces, it will even out.

[Likely Voter]

Wow Pawlenty jumped.  I wonder how long that will last.

T-Paw jumped because he is the only one that announced.

When everyone else announces, it will even out.

Not really. The 'likely to run' prices show that for most of the candidates, they are more likely than not to run - so that is priced into their win nomination price as well. Most would see a modest bump if they announced. The only candidates that would see a significant jump if they announced would be Palin or Huckabee (Daniels to a lesser extent), and of course some of the 'I'm not running' candidates like Rubio and Christie.