The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Trump-mania is definitely starting to subside a bit, as far as the betting markets are concerned:

Up: Daniels
Down: Romney, Trump

Romney 24.6
Pawlenty 16.3
Daniels 10.9
Huckabee 8.3
Bachmann 6.2
Trump 5.6
Hunstman 5.5
Palin 5.4
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.7
Ryan 2.0
Christie 1.7
Johnson 1.3
Giuliani 0.6
Santorum 0.6

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

does ryan refer to paul ryan?

[Yelnoc]

does ryan refer to paul ryan?

I would assume so.

[Mr. Morden]

does ryan refer to paul ryan?

Yes.  Obviously the betting markets were moved by your dreams about him. 

[Bull Moose Base]

Trump's post-partum depression.  The leader of several national polls: sixth place on intrade.  Gingrich who has led some statewides: 10th, behind Ron Paul.  But it feels right. These rankings are the most I've agreed with intrade in a while.  I won't be surprised if Gingrich drops out before the year is over.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is still high in "winning individual".  Apparently, a few people think he might win as an Independent or something.  Here's the winning individual market:

Obama 61.9
Romney 10.5
Trump 5.3
Pawlenty 4.8
Daniels 4.3
Huntman 4.0
Paul 2.4
Huckabee 2.3
Palin 1.5
Bachmann 0.7
Clinton 0.5
Gingrich 0.5
Biden 0.3

Obama was at about 59 before the bin Laden killing, so he's gained a few points.  He actually went all the way up to about 70 in the immediate hours after the news broke, but then retreated back to 61.9.

Tomorrow, I'll give an update on the GOP nomination, in advance of the first debate.

[Yelnoc]

I need a thousand-sided di. (die, sp?)

[Bacon King]

I need a thousand-sided di. (die, sp?)

http://rolz.org/

(20 seconds on google lol)

just type Xd1000 into the box in the top left corner, with X being the number of dice you want to roll.

[Yelnoc]

I need a thousand-sided di. (die, sp?)

http://rolz.org/

(20 seconds on google lol)

just type Xd1000 into the box in the top left corner, with X being the number of dice you want to roll.

You da bomb!

1-619  Obama
620-725  Romney
726-778  Trump
779-827  Pawlenty
828-870  Daniels
871-911  Huntsman
912-936  Paul
937-960  Huckabee
961-976  Palin
977-984  Bachmann
985-990  Clinton
991-996  Gingrich
997-999  Biden
1000       Divide by Zero

Roll 1: 451 Obama
Roll 2: 374 Obama
Roll 3: 782 Pawlenty

This is fun.  People should write timeline like this

[Mr. Morden]

There's also this:

http://www.random.org/

Just put:

Min: 1
Max: 1000

on the right hand side.

[Bull Moose Base]

Rolz is the Rasmussen of this.  I did it 10x and only got 3 Obamas.  4 Romneys, a Trump,a Daniels and a Paul.  Random is the CBS(?).  8 Obamas a Romney and a Huntsman.

btw Pawlenty is really closing in on Romney on intrade.

[Mr. Morden]

A special forces hit on OBL apparently increases the demand for a president who can speak Chinese, as Huntsman moves up to 5th place.  Let's see if any of the five candidates participating in the Thursday night debate can boost their odds.  Cain is way back at 0.3, so he has nowhere to go but up.

Up: Huntsman
Down: Pawlenty

Romney 24.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Daniels 11.6
Huckabee 8.0
Huntsman 7.3
Trump 6.2
Bachmann 5.7
Palin 5.2
Paul 3.5
Gingrich 3.0
Christie 1.5
Ryan 1.2
Johnson 1.0
Santorum 0.6
J. Bush 0.3
Cain 0.3
Perry 0.3
Rubio 0.3

Four years ago at this time:

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 31.0
Gore 10.1
Edwards 8.1
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Lieberman 0.1
Gravel 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 30.8
McCain 21.5
Romney 17.1
Thompson 15.1
Hagel 2.8
Gingrich 2.8
Huckabee 2.1
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.2
T. Thompson 0.9
Brownback 0.6
Cheney 0.4
Paul 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
Powell 0.2

[Yelnoc]

Looking at those numbers, Romney will collapse and Pawlenty will take the nomination over Daniels.  He then will then proceed to lose to Obama in the General election, making Daniels the heir apparent for 2016 (who also falls apart then?).

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty has suddenly surged to 18.4 in the last few hours, and Huntsman is up to a tie for 4th.  So the top five is:

Romney 24.0
Pawlenty 18.4
Daniels 11.1
Huckabee 8.0
Huntsman 8.0

Others in tonight's debate are at:
Paul 3.5
Johnson 1.2
Cain 0.9
Santorum 0.6

We'll see how that changes after the debate.

[Mr. Morden]

In terms of a percentage increase in their share price, the biggest winner among the debate performers was Herman Cain.  He was at 0.3 about 24 hours ago.  Then he surged to 0.9 in the hours before the debate.  Since the debate, he's now gone up to 2.0, over six times the price from yesterday.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty gained in price just before the debate, but has since given back some of those gains.  Paul and Johnson declined slightly, while Santorum stayed the same.

But we also have big gainers among those who didn't participate, particularly Daniels and Huntsman.  Romney took some flak for not participating, despite the fact that he has an exploratory committee, but Daniels and Huntsman are still non-candidates, so I guess they get a free pass or something.

Romney 23.8
Pawlenty 17.5
Daniels 13.2
Huntsman 10.0
Huckabee 8.9
Bachmann 6.0
Trump 5.2
Palin 5.1
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.9
Cain 2.0
Christie 1.4
Ryan 1.2
Johnson 0.8
Giuliani 0.7
Santorum 0.6

[Yelnoc]

Huntsman has really surged.  I wonder if he has people buying his shares as part of some pre-campaign strategy?

[Sam Spade]

One of the reasons why this board has almost zero interest to me at this point in the game is because open party nominations are rather predictable.  Typically, only two candidates ever stand reasonable odds (<5%) to win the nomination, and maybe one or two other candidates have any other chance (>5%) whatsoever.  I think only one or two open party nominations in the modern era (post-1968) fall outside this paradigm.

Once we reach December or so, this will all become painfully clear at some "moment of clarity" if you keep your ear to the ground.  I will post then here with my call.  Until then, have fun folks.

Just as a final FYI, I already have a sneaking suspicion who the two possibilities are.  But I'm far from certain.

</classic Sam Spade-style post>

[Mr. Morden]

Primaries are very unpredictable - that's not really news.

Hell, we have enough trouble predicting these races 3 days out, much less three months out.

One of the reasons why this board has almost zero interest to me at this point in the game is because open party nominations are rather predictable.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Primaries are very unpredictable - that's not really news.

Hell, we have enough trouble predicting these races 3 days out, much less three months out.

One of the reasons why this board has almost zero interest to me at this point in the game is because open party nominations are rather predictable.

It's a dirty job to be a Wise Man but somebody has to do it.

[Mr. Morden]

Mormon-mentum reigns supreme as Romney and Huntsman gain at the expense of much of the rest of the field.  Huntsman especially has been surging like mad, now up to 3rd place.  Meanwhile, the bottom falls out for Huckabee, now down to 14.0 to run and 2.5 to win the nomination.

Up: Romney, Huntsman, Gingrich, Cain, Christie
Down: Pawlenty, Daniels, Huckabee, Bachmann, Trump

GOP nomination

Romney 25.1
Pawlenty 15.3
Huntsman 12.8
Daniels 10.5
Palin 5.6
Gingrich 4.3
Bachmann 4.0
Trump 3.8
Cain 3.7
Paul 3.2
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 2.5
Ryan 1.0
Giuliani 0.8

Will the following people run for president in 2012?

Hunstman 77.0
Bachmann 72.0
Daniels 69.5
Trump 41.5
Palin 34.0
Bolton 20.0
Giuliani 19.0
Huckabee 14.0
Pataki 12.6
Perry 11.0
Christie 10.0
Rand Paul 8.0
J. Bush 7.2
Bloomberg 5.0
Thune 2.5
Pence 2.0
Cheney 1.5
Barbour 1.0

[feeblepizza]

Why do Pataki, Perry, Christie, Paul Jr., Jeb, Bloomberg, Thune, Pence, Cheney, and Barbour still have rankings?

[Mr. Morden]

Why do Pataki, Perry, Christie, Paul Jr., Jeb, Bloomberg, Thune, Pence, Cheney, and Barbour still have rankings?

None of the contracts on "who will run" expire until Dec. 31, 2011.  That's when they all cash out.  The numbers I list are simply the price of the contract as of the last trade.  But in some cases, no one's traded one of those contracts in over a month.

In Huckabee's case, there's been lots of activity just within the last hour, whereas with Pataki, no one's traded shares on him since last month.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee has a huge rally back to 8.0, and Daniels is also rebounding a bit:

Romney 25.4
Pawlenty 15.4
Huntsman 12.0
Daniels 11.7
Huckabee 8.0

Huckabee to run 37.0

If any of you have inside info on what Huckabee is going to say, now would be a good time to bet.

[Yelnoc]

No way am I betting.  Huckabee is too unpredictable for my cash.

[Mr. Morden]

Huck now down to 4.5 to win the nom., and 27.2 to run.