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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 80492 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #50 on: September 29, 2009, 04:44:09 am »

Palin gains, Jindal drops.....Palin and Pawlenty breaking away from the second tier a bit.....moving a bit closer to Romney:

Romney 28.0
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 17.0
Thune 12.5
Jindal 12.0
Huckabee 11.9
Gingrich 11.0

Palin is absurdly overvalued, IMHO.
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« Reply #51 on: October 13, 2009, 09:56:43 pm »

Pawlenty surges into a close 2nd place; Jindal drops:

Romney 27.0
Pawlenty 24.9
Palin 17.6
Gingrich 13.0
Thune 12.5
Huckabee 12.0
Petraeus 9.0
Jindal 8.0
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« Reply #52 on: October 20, 2009, 09:07:50 am »
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Can anyone explain what those numbers actually mean and how one bets on intrade?
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« Reply #53 on: October 20, 2009, 10:25:03 am »
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Can anyone explain what those numbers actually mean and how one bets on intrade?
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« Reply #54 on: October 20, 2009, 03:47:02 pm »
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Intratrade is such a silly market.  It swings based on any piece of news.  Pawlenty has only gained because he is creating noise from himself by putting together a campaign team and rumbles about him going to Iowa.  Its not even a gamble.  For example, if you pick Jindal today your going to make fake money because a news story like, 'Jindal May Consider Probably Maybe Running in 2012' will increase his chances by 5-7 points.
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« Reply #55 on: October 20, 2009, 05:46:05 pm »

Can anyone explain what those numbers actually mean and how one bets on intrade?

Someone who's actually traded in the market can probably explain this better than I can.  But in brief, each share is a contract between two people.  If a share of "Romney to win the 2012 GOP presidential nomination" is traded at 27.0, it means that one person who's betting on Romney to win puts up $2.70.  That person is agreeing to a contract with another person, who puts up $7.30.  In three years, if Romney wins the nomination, the first guy gets all $10, while the second guy gets nothing.  Whereas if Romney *doesn't* win the nomination, then the second guy gets all $10, while the first guy gets nothing.

The numbers I've been posting are the price of the latest transaction on each candidate to win the nomination.  Latest numbers are:

Romney 25.2
Palin 23.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Huckabee 14.5
Thune 11.1
Gingrich 10.5
Jindal 7.6

(those are just the top 7 names at the moment.....there are a total of 28 names listed, including such uber-longshots as Fred Thompson and Gary Johnson)

So that means the last transaction on Romney was a share traded at $2.52, last transaction on Palin was at $2.30, etc.  If the market had more volume, and if there wasn't also the fact that these shares won't pay out for another three years, then these would translate into probabilities of the person in question winning the nomination, at least the probability as the market sees it.  But you'll notice that even these top seven add up to more than 100%.  There isn't enough volume yet.  Still, I think you can read the numbers as being correlated with how the market views their probability of winning.  Romney has been in the #1 slot for more than six months, so I think it's fair to say that the market thinks he's the frontrunner.
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« Reply #56 on: October 20, 2009, 05:53:33 pm »
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Big Deal. Intrade is usually wrong in the end.
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« Reply #57 on: October 20, 2009, 06:00:39 pm »

Intratrade is such a silly market.  It swings based on any piece of news.  Pawlenty has only gained because he is creating noise from himself by putting together a campaign team and rumbles about him going to Iowa.  Its not even a gamble.  For example, if you pick Jindal today your going to make fake money because a news story like, 'Jindal May Consider Probably Maybe Running in 2012' will increase his chances by 5-7 points.

I think you have something of a point, but you overstate it somewhat.  Yes, Intrade tends to overreact to the latest news.  But it should be reacting to the news, just not as sharply as it does.  For all of us who are not in any of the potential candidates' inner circles, all we have to go on is the news.

Compared to 3-4 months ago, it now looks like Pawlenty is much more firmly committed to running in 2012, and he's managed to attract some top talent to his team.  So he *should* be on the rise in Intrade.  The probability of him winning the nomination has gone up.  Similarly, the reason why Jindal has dropped is because it increasingly looks like he's not going to run in 2012.  If a news story came out today that said that he was thinking about running after all, then his Intrade price *should* go up, provided that we actually think the story is credible, and that he's not just blowing smoke.  In 2006, when Obama told Russert that he was now thinking about running for prez, his stock shot up on Intrade.  As it should have.  Before that day, it looked like an Obama 2008 candidacy was very unlikely.  Now, with that one sentence, he was opening the door somewhat.

I could go on, but I think you get my drift.  To a large extent, the betting on Intrade is an exercise in trying to read the minds of the people who may or may not run for president.  To the extent that a news story can give us insight into that, it drives the prices.  Not sure why that's a problem.
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« Reply #58 on: October 20, 2009, 06:06:48 pm »

Big Deal. Intrade is usually wrong in the end.

I'm not sure what you mean by "usually wrong".  The favorite frequently doesn't win, but that's not how probabilities work.  We shouldn't expect a candidate with a 51% chance of winning to win 100% of the time.  The true test of betting markets is whether events that it says have a 20% chance of happening actually happen 20% of the time, events that it says have a 70% chance of happening actually happen 70% of the time, etc.  I think someone did that kind of analysis some years ago on Intrade and IEM, and the result was that the prediction markets did a decent job.

Of course, there was also a paper a few years ago by some guy who pointed out all the irrationalities in the market, and how it was easy to make $ off of them.  I think the biggest deficiency is that they overestimate longshots.

But then, even if Intrade were "reliable" overall, the 2012 market doesn't have enough volume yet to tell you anything.  I'm mostly just tracking it for kicks.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2009, 06:13:08 pm by Mr. Morden »Logged

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« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2009, 09:31:20 pm »

Palin has moved into the lead, ending Romney's long run in the #1 spot:

Palin 26.5
Romney 25.2
Pawlenty 22.5
Huckabee 14.2
Thune 14.0
Gingrich 10.2
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« Reply #60 on: November 02, 2009, 09:58:11 pm »
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Palin has moved into the lead, ending Romney's long run in the #1 spot:

Palin 26.5
Romney 25.2
Pawlenty 22.5
Huckabee 14.2
Thune 14.0
Gingrich 10.2

Palin jumped up because of Hoffman thing?  I don't get Palin leading, Pawlenty being so close to the lead, Huckabee being so far back/barely ahead of Thune.  In short, what?
Keep in mind, a couple people could put someone like Bachmann in #1 if they felt like it.
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« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2009, 10:13:40 pm »

[Warning: pbrower-length post below.  Smiley ]

I actually kind of agree with the order, with the major exception of Palin (who I think should be way back there).  Romney is the default establishment choice, and thus (IMHO) the frontrunner by default.  While Romney is battling with Huckabee and Palin in the first tier in the national polls, Huck is the identity politics candidate for evangelicals, and is unlikely to expand enough beyond that base to win the nom., and Palin (if she even runs in the first place, which is a big question mark) is a campaign meltdown waiting to happen.  T-Paw is the one who I view as being the biggest threat to Romney, though he's still a big unknown.

So if I was doing this, the order would be:

1) Romney
2) Pawlenty
3) Huckabee

4th might be Palin.....I mean, I think she would be likely to implode in an extended campaign, but I can't be absolutely sure of that.  Anyone with virtually 100% name recognition who has a decent chance of running can't be written off completely.  Strange things happen.

But Thune would be another possibility for 4th on my own list, even though he hasn't given any indication that he's going to run.  I mean, if he does run he'll be treated as an actual potential contender.  It's hard for me to see, say, a Rick Santorum in the same category.

So yeah, I can see the Intrade ordering making sense (though not the exact numbers), excepting Palin.  Palin has inexplicably doubled since February, despite her head scratching resignation.  I guess it's because she's being hailed as a political genius for endorsing Hoffman early.  Smiley
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« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2009, 10:17:49 pm »

Keep in mind, a couple people could put someone like Bachmann in #1 if they felt like it.

True, though (unless they were rich, and enjoyed throwing $ away) not with the same kind of volume that the Palin market has.  The volume on Palin is over 8500 now, so I guess that means that there's ~$85,000 tied up in the Intrade markets on Palin.
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« Reply #63 on: November 28, 2009, 01:56:04 am »

Romney is back in the lead, and Thune has actually edged out Huckabee for 4th place:

Romney 23.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 19.3
Thune 15.5
Huckabee 11.2
Gingrich 6.0
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« Reply #64 on: November 28, 2009, 02:13:51 am »
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Excellent, I think that Romney shall be approaching George Allen-like levels soon. However, this time it will be a happy ending instead of a racist, bitter one. Smiley
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« Reply #65 on: December 01, 2009, 03:00:09 am »

Huckabee's now down to 8.2 (for obvious reasons).  His all time low is 8.0, and he may be breaking that floor shortly.
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« Reply #66 on: December 02, 2009, 11:56:02 am »
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Romney is back in the lead, and Thune has actually edged out Huckabee for 4th place:

Romney 23.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 19.3
Thune 15.5
Huckabee 11.2
Gingrich 6.0

The Huckabee tiny number stuns me.  He leads or is basically tied in every recent poll I've seen.  His favorability among Republicans is higher than anyone.  There was one recent poll- I guess an outlier- that showed approval of Romney below 50% among Republicans.  When some kind of health care reform passes, the Right will pounce on it for the 2010 elections.  Romney will have a hard time since he signed a mandate into law in Mass.  Huckabee is also the only one there who opposed the bailout I believe.  And is by far the most charismatic candidate with the exception of the Right's love affair with Palin.  Thune has shown zero indication of even considering a run, is much less known, and made the impolitic remark that if he was in Iowa, it would only be to go through it to get somewhere else.

The only reason I see for Huck being so low is that there's a fairly good chance he won't even run.  He has a platform now for his views and is making a nice income.  He's talked about his reluctance to give that up and has openly talked about the long odds of running against an incumbent.  And if Palin runs, his fundraising and attention will be tough to come by.  But, if the economy languishes over the next year and drag down Obama's approval- unfortunately not so unlikely- and if Palin passes on a run- also not unlikely- I'd expect him to run and give him as good a chance as Romney.

This. Of course Huckabee has already said it's "less than likely" he'll run, so that may play a role here.
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« Reply #67 on: December 02, 2009, 06:32:33 pm »
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How do Intrade work?
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« Reply #68 on: December 02, 2009, 07:16:48 pm »
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How do Intrade work?

The answer to your question was on the previous page.  Smiley


Can anyone explain what those numbers actually mean and how one bets on intrade?

Someone who's actually traded in the market can probably explain this better than I can.  But in brief, each share is a contract between two people.  If a share of "Romney to win the 2012 GOP presidential nomination" is traded at 27.0, it means that one person who's betting on Romney to win puts up $2.70.  That person is agreeing to a contract with another person, who puts up $7.30.  In three years, if Romney wins the nomination, the first guy gets all $10, while the second guy gets nothing.  Whereas if Romney *doesn't* win the nomination, then the second guy gets all $10, while the first guy gets nothing.

The numbers I've been posting are the price of the latest transaction on each candidate to win the nomination.  Latest numbers are:

Romney 25.2
Palin 23.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Huckabee 14.5
Thune 11.1
Gingrich 10.5
Jindal 7.6

(those are just the top 7 names at the moment.....there are a total of 28 names listed, including such uber-longshots as Fred Thompson and Gary Johnson)

So that means the last transaction on Romney was a share traded at $2.52, last transaction on Palin was at $2.30, etc.  If the market had more volume, and if there wasn't also the fact that these shares won't pay out for another three years, then these would translate into probabilities of the person in question winning the nomination, at least the probability as the market sees it.  But you'll notice that even these top seven add up to more than 100%.  There isn't enough volume yet.  Still, I think you can read the numbers as being correlated with how the market views their probability of winning.  Romney has been in the #1 slot for more than six months, so I think it's fair to say that the market thinks he's the frontrunner.

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« Reply #69 on: December 02, 2009, 07:22:00 pm »
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I think it has been settled. ROMNEY IS IN!!!
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« Reply #70 on: December 23, 2009, 11:39:28 pm »

Pawlenty again flips with Palin for 2nd place; Huckabee rebounds slightly, but is still down from where he was pre-Clemmons:

Romney 23.0
Pawlenty 19.2
Palin 17.1
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.8
Barbour 7.5
Gingrich 7.1
Daniels 4.9
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« Reply #71 on: December 24, 2009, 10:24:16 am »
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Pawlenty has little chance at winning the nomination. He has had a decent record as Governor, and his politics appear ideal for the Republican party. But once he gets out campaigning, I think he's toast. He might break 20% in Iowa, and will of course win Minnesota, and possibly a few other Midwest states. But his chances overall aren't great.
After doing some thinking, I think that if Palin runs, which I'm not thinking she will, she will be the nominee. Many Republicans are drawn to her, and once she gets out there campaigning again, they will be drawn to her again. I'd be lying if I told you there was no chance I would ever vote for her in the primaries.
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« Reply #72 on: December 24, 2009, 10:32:57 am »
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Pawlenty isn't that bad though.
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« Reply #73 on: January 14, 2010, 11:23:32 pm »

Palin and Pawlenty flip yet again.  Thune gains even more, making him ridiculously overvalued, considering that he hasn't really done anything to indicate that he's going to run:

Romney 26.0
Palin 20.5
Pawlenty 17.0
Thune 15.0
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 7.0
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« Reply #74 on: January 15, 2010, 12:09:13 am »
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Could Palins bump be because she joined Fox News?
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