The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[© tweed]

A question that begs to be asked is this: has Intrade ever been right on anything?   Hillary at, what, something like 70% up until Iowa....and then they had Evan Bayh at 99% probability of being O's veep until the day before Biden was picked, when it was leaked that ole Joe had his grill cleaned.

the Bayh part is not right.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden overtook Bayh in the 2008 VP market a good 5 days before he was picked.  Bayh was never anywhere close to being at 99% in that market.  Palin was also in 3rd of 4th place in the GOP VP market for a good long while when many people were dismissing her, and saying that it was certainly going to be between Pawlenty and Romney.  Here's the thread in which we were following that:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.60

A question that begs to be asked is this: has Intrade ever been right on anything?   Hillary at, what, something like 70% up until Iowa....and then they had Evan Bayh at 99% probability of being O's veep until the day before Biden was picked, when it was leaked that ole Joe had his grill cleaned.

Intrade has no special knowledge.  It's just a conventional wisdom aggregator.  And the conventional wisdom is often wrong.  The conventional wisdom was that Clinton was going to be the 2008 Dem. nominee, and that McCain's campaign for the nomination was dead.  It was wrong on both counts.

What's "fun" about following Intrade though is that it forces people to think about how the conventional wisdom should be quantified.  OK, so Romney is the likely nominee?  How likely?  How do you convert the CW into a probability?

It's also wrong to suggest that any time that Intrade gives something a >50% chance of happening and it doesn't happen that Intrade is "wrong".  Probability doesn't work like that.  The true test of such predictions is whether events being given a 20% probability happen 20% of the time, events given a 60% probability happen 60% of the time, etc.  On that score, I think the research shows that betting markets do OK, though there are some problems.  I think they tend to overestimate the extreme underdogs, for example.  But I don't remember all the details of the research that's been done on this.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Isn't Romney where Hillary was 4 years ago and Gingrich where Obama was?

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich surge continues, and Perry drops all the way down to 2.4 and 6th place.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Perry

Romney 71.2
Gingrich 12.2
Paul 5.0
Cain 4.0
Huntsman 3.1
Perry 2.4
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.3

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

LOL @ people betting on Palin

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't Romney where Hillary was 4 years ago and Gingrich where Obama was?

More or less.  This was four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 71.0
Obama 14.0
Gore 6.4
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 0.8
Dodd 0.3
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 42.5
Romney 30.5
Paul 7.7
McCain 7.4
Huckabee 6.2
Thompson 5.7
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.5

[Middle-aged Europe]

Paul still third, Huntsman now fourth.*lol*

Romney 71.0%
Gingrich 13.0%
Paul 4.8%
Huntsman 4.5%
Cain 4.0%
Perry 3.0%
Bachmann 1.1%

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Gingrich surge continues.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Paul, Huntsman

Romney 70.4
Gingrich 14.3
Cain 3.9
Paul 3.8
Perry 3.7
Huntsman 2.9
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

[© tweed]

Perry 3.7

he vanished into oblivion, it's easy to do.  and I cried a sea when you talked to me the day you said we were through.  But it's alright, some enchanted night, I'll be with you.

[memphis]

How the hell is Huntsman higher than anybody? Not saying Santorum is likely, but at least his views are consistant with those of GOP voters. I'm looking for him to pull a Lieberman and endorse Obama once we move into the general.

[Ty440]

Post-debate update: Gingrich surge continues.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Paul, Huntsman

Romney 70.4
Gingrich 14.3
Cain 3.9
Paul 3.8
Perry 3.7
Huntsman 2.9
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Does anyone with at least an  eight  grade education believe Gingrich can compete with Obama in the general?

[Averroës Nix]

Does anyone with at least an  eight  grade education believe Gingrich can compete with Obama in the general?

Yes, I'm sure that someone does.

[© tweed]

Post-debate update: Gingrich surge continues.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Paul, Huntsman

Romney 70.4
Gingrich 14.3
Cain 3.9
Paul 3.8
Perry 3.7
Huntsman 2.9
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Does anyone with at least an  eight  grade education believe Gingrich can compete with Obama in the general?

I've a 15th grade education, and I'll raise my hand.

[Ty440]

Post-debate update: Gingrich surge continues.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Paul, Huntsman

Romney 70.4
Gingrich 14.3
Cain 3.9
Paul 3.8
Perry 3.7
Huntsman 2.9
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Does anyone with at least an  eight  grade education believe Gingrich can compete with Obama in the general?

I've a 15th grade education, and I'll raise my hand.

Someone does not  remember the 1990's

[Wonkish1]

Post-debate update: Gingrich surge continues.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Paul, Huntsman

Romney 70.4
Gingrich 14.3
Cain 3.9
Paul 3.8
Perry 3.7
Huntsman 2.9
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Does anyone with at least an  eight  grade education believe Gingrich can compete with Obama in the general?

Easily!

[© tweed]

he likes to sing along.  and he likes to shoot his gun.  what more do I need to know?

[memphis]

Gingrich would be a weaker candidate than Romney but he's more viable than anybody else. It'd be a race rather than a slaughter with Bachmann et al.

[Eraserhead]

Eh, put me in the camp that thinks Gingrich would be a nightmare for the GOP in the general. Although he'd obviously perform a lot better than Cain would (who wouldn't?).

[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman now tied for 3rd place, and Cain down to 6th:

Romney 68.6
Gingrich 14.7
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 3.5
Paul 3.1
Cain 2.9
Bachmann 1.2
Santorum 0.5
Palin 0.4
Johnson 0.3

[Tender Branson]

Why is Palin still in there ?

Didn't most of the important filing deadlines already pass ?

[Mr. Morden]

Why is Palin still in there ?

Didn't most of the important filing deadlines already pass ?

At this point, it's probably mostly people who bought or sold shares of her at a higher price dumping the shares now, rather than waiting until the convention to cash out.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

jmfcst's rankings 11/15/11:

Gingrich 50.0
[late entry] 20.0
Cain 9.99
Romney 9.11
Santorum 6.0
Paul 3.0
Bachmann 0.666
Huntsman 0.5
Perry 0.4
Palin 0.333
Clint Eastwood 0.1
Johnson 0.0

Summary:  Romney still has no path to the nomination unless every other GOP candidate fumbles multiple times, and a late comer could still win it

[Averroës Nix]

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Every other candidate has already fumbled multiple times.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

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Every other candidate has already fumbled multiple times.

Newt hasn't messed up during the debates - he was called out by Romney on the insurance mandate, but Newt immediately agreed Romney had a point, so no damage was done and it actually allowed Newt a moment to admit he was wrong (whereas Perry would have continued to push a losing position).

[Averroës Nix]

Newt hasn't messed up during the debates.

Sure, Newt hasn't had any damaging moments in debates. But until about a month ago, his campaign was little more than a series of fumbles, regardless of how inconsequential that may seem now.