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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings
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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 80674 times)
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #900 on: November 30, 2011, 04:21:00 pm »
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53.5-31.2...

And now 51.5-36.9....
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #901 on: November 30, 2011, 04:37:07 pm »
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I want to see intrade after FL polls
For those of you unsure how to see these numbers for yourself, go here and then click on the"2012 Republican Nominee" box to see the market.

Currently the following candidates trade above 1.0...
Romney 50.8
Gingrich 35.5
Huntsman 4.4
Paul 4.2
Perry 2.4
Bachmann 1.5
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #902 on: November 30, 2011, 05:59:57 pm »
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current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Revised rankings 11/29/11

Newt          65%
Huntsman  15%
late entry   10%
Romney       5%
Perry           3%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%
Cain            0.1%




What's the Huntsman boner all about?
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Aaron is pissed:

She was like "How did you get my number?  I don't handle this issue.  You have to call the South Bryant Campus for that.  I'll transfer you, but I don't handle it."  She said it in a slightly condescending tone.  I didn't tell her that Grumps gave me the number.  I just told her I looked it up.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #903 on: November 30, 2011, 06:29:40 pm »
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Newt          65%
Huntsman  15%

What's the Huntsman boner all about?

he's the only one other than Newt who can talk without seeming fake or crazy
« Last Edit: November 30, 2011, 06:44:09 pm by jmfcst »Logged

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Beet
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« Reply #904 on: November 30, 2011, 11:45:24 pm »
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Intrade is definitely illegal in the U.S. You can't make direct bank transfers or use U.S. credit/debit cards to fund your accounts.

I actually spoke with a guy at intrade asking about filing it on your taxes and he was very clear, saying ''That is your choice what you do with that''.

Just invest it in Swiss Jew Gold or something.

Those two things do not make it illegal. First of all, Intrade submitted a comment to the CFTC asking for it to make a ruling, the CFTC did not respond. It's in a legal gray area. The prohibition on credit cards from the US is because Intrade cannot solicit US customers. However, there is no penalty in the law for clients, only "operators."

Secondly, if you do not file this on your taxes then you could be convicted of tax evasion.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #905 on: December 01, 2011, 12:27:30 am »
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You can't use US credit cards?
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Beet
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« Reply #906 on: December 01, 2011, 12:40:35 am »
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You can't use US credit cards?

No, for two reasons. First, as a result of a law passed by Congress in 2006, Intrade cannot solicit in the US. Secondly, according to the same law no financial institution (e.g., credit card issuer) is allowed to knowingly transfer funds for the purpose of online gambling. Technically, this does not apply to Intrade, because they are a futures market, not a gambling site. The outcomes of the contracts traded there (like stock market futures, political futures) primary depend on skill (the skills of political consultants, the skills of stock traders) not chance. Hence it is not really "gambling." However, they have chosen to remove themselves from the situation to avoid any ambiguity.

It is not illegal however to use Intrade provided you can fund your account. Only online sports betting is illegal by federal law, online futures contract trading or even betting on non-sports games of chance are not illegal. Under state law, it depends on the laws of your particular state. Maryland has no prohibition of online futures trading or online gambling.

I would report any winnings on Intrade as capital gains from unregulated futures trading. It may be tempting to not report it. However, if you do not report it and are audited by the IRS, what will you say then? You could be convicted of tax evasion.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #907 on: December 01, 2011, 12:12:36 pm »
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unless you are raking in the dough it's going to be a huge waste of resources for the IRS to bring you to trial over your Intrade account.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #908 on: December 01, 2011, 12:24:49 pm »
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unless you are raking in the dough it's going to be a huge waste of resources for the IRS to bring you to trial over your Intrade account.

it's always best to keep your conscience clear
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I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #909 on: December 01, 2011, 12:27:16 pm »
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as you wish
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #910 on: December 01, 2011, 07:48:47 pm »
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Romney 46 -- Gingrich 38...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #911 on: December 02, 2011, 04:22:41 am »

Romney below 50.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Romney

Romney 46.6
Gingrich 38.1
Paul 5.0
Huntsman 4.9
Perry 1.8
Bachmann 1.5
Cain 0.9
Santorum 0.7

Four years ago at this time....

Democrats
Clinton 67.4
Obama 21.7
Edwards 5.8
Gore 3.5
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 42.7
Romney 24.5
Huckabee 13.3
McCain 7.2
Thompson 5.5
Paul 5.2
Rice 1.5
Gingrich 0.3
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« Reply #912 on: December 03, 2011, 03:51:04 pm »

Post-Cain suspension....

Up: Romney, Huntsman
Down: Gingrich

Romney 48.1
Gingrich 36.0
Huntsman 6.0
Paul 4.5
Perry 2.5
Bachmann 1.9
Santorum 0.8
Cain 0.2
Palin 0.2
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« Reply #913 on: December 03, 2011, 04:07:58 pm »
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Are we being told Huntsman is the gainer here?
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« Reply #914 on: December 03, 2011, 04:11:12 pm »
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Are we being told Huntsman is the gainer here?

^

These betters clearly do not understand the politics of Herman Cain. His supporters are the most anti-Romney, anti-Huntsman (especially since he worked in Obama's administration)
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Simfan34
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« Reply #915 on: December 03, 2011, 04:12:09 pm »
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Are we being told Huntsman is the gainer here?

^

These betters clearly do not understand the politics of Herman Cain. His supporters are the most anti-Romney, anti-Huntsman (especially since he worked in Obama's administration)

Exactly what I was thinking.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #916 on: December 03, 2011, 05:38:17 pm »
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Gingrich at 34.5 now...
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #917 on: December 07, 2011, 05:39:21 am »

Huntsman, Paul, and Bachmann are all slowly gaining....

GOP prez. nominee

Romney 49.2
Gingrich 30.8
Huntsman 7.5
Paul 6.0
Bachmann 2.7
Perry 2.5
Santorum 0.9

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 27.0
Christie 6.9
McDonnell 5.1
Portman 4.5
Huntsman 3.9
Thune 3.5
Cain 3.0
Haley 3.0
Huckabee 3.0
Jindal 3.0
Martinez 3.0
Pawlenty 3.0
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« Reply #918 on: December 08, 2011, 02:46:11 pm »
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Revised rankings from the jmfcsts 12/08/11

Newt          80%
Huntsman  10%
late entry    5%
Romney       3%
Paul            1%
Perry           1%
Santorum    0%
Bachmann   0%

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Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #919 on: December 08, 2011, 02:47:35 pm »
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Why are the 2 Shermanesques, Rubio and Christie, trading so high?
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7.35, 3.65

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Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #920 on: December 08, 2011, 02:49:22 pm »

Why are the 2 Shermanesques, Rubio and Christie, trading so high?

No one believes denial of VP interest this early.  Once they actually refuse to be vetted, then it's time to actually believe them.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #921 on: December 08, 2011, 03:02:53 pm »
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Why are the 2 Shermanesques, Rubio and Christie, trading so high?

No one believes denial of VP interest this early.  Once they actually refuse to be vetted, then it's time to actually believe them.


So we'll wait then. Interesting that Jon Kyl (who openly expressed interest) and Paul Ryan (who's left the door slightly ajar) aren't being traded though.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
argentarius
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« Reply #922 on: December 09, 2011, 10:11:55 am »
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Revised rankings from the jmfcsts 12/08/11

Newt          80%
Huntsman  10%
late entry    5%
Romney       3%
Paul            1%
Perry           1%
Santorum    0%
Bachmann   0%


Is this the probability of how you'll vote or the probability of who will win? Because I'm happy if this forum's generic republican prefers Paul to bachmann, perry and santorum.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #923 on: December 09, 2011, 02:22:49 pm »
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If jmfcts can do his own Intrade.. I'll do the "spanish socialdemocrats" one hahaha...:

Newt 60%
Bachmann 12%
Romney 11%
Huntsman 8%
Perry 5%
Santorum 3%
Paul 1% (however, there's a high chance he'll decide the nominee in a broken convention)
Others 0%
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #924 on: December 09, 2011, 02:23:29 pm »
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Intrade got a plug in Krugman's NYT column today
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