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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 82313 times)
Korwinist
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« Reply #925 on: December 09, 2011, 03:10:21 pm »
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The ModernBourbon Democrats make their predictions (which aren't much different from a couple months ago, unlike the jmfcsts):

Gingrich: 30%
Romney: 40%
Paul: 30%
Everyone else: Very small number (if, say, Paul has a heart attack, Gingrich is stabbed by a vengeful ex wife relative, Romney is blown up by terrorists, etc)
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #926 on: December 09, 2011, 04:31:28 pm »
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The ModernBourbon Democrats make their predictions (which aren't much different from a couple months ago, unlike the jmfcsts):

Gingrich: 30%
Romney: 40%
Paul: 30%
Everyone else: Very small number (if, say, Paul has a heart attack, Gingrich is stabbed by a vengeful ex wife relative, Romney is blown up by terrorists, etc)

Do you really think Paul has a real shot at nomination??
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Korwinist
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« Reply #927 on: December 09, 2011, 05:15:09 pm »
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The ModernBourbon Democrats make their predictions (which aren't much different from a couple months ago, unlike the jmfcsts):

Gingrich: 30%
Romney: 40%
Paul: 30%
Everyone else: Very small number (if, say, Paul has a heart attack, Gingrich is stabbed by a vengeful ex wife relative, Romney is blown up by terrorists, etc)

Do you really think Paul has a real shot at nomination??

Yes. He's been slowly creeping up in polling numbers, easily has the best organization/grassroots, and could probably dominate even in caucus states he's weak in. Especially considering so many don't support him now because they don't think he can beat Romney (or Obama), winning Iowa would change that.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #928 on: December 09, 2011, 06:34:54 pm »
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The ModernBourbon Democrats make their predictions (which aren't much different from a couple months ago, unlike the jmfcsts):

Gingrich: 30%
Romney: 40%
Paul: 30%
Everyone else: Very small number (if, say, Paul has a heart attack, Gingrich is stabbed by a vengeful ex wife relative, Romney is blown up by terrorists, etc)

Do you really think Paul has a 30% shot at nomination??
He really is only competitive in Iowa. He absolutely has to win it to have a shot, and at least Romney or Gingrich to collapse in NH or SC to be a serous contender. I'd say he has a 1/3 chance of winning Iowa and about 10% chance for Romney to collapse to Huntsman and 20% chance for Gingrich to collapse to a FOTM in SC. So that's about a 5% chance at most.
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Zarn
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« Reply #929 on: December 09, 2011, 11:59:49 pm »
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It's all about the electable status. He wins Iowa, and he becomes electable. Romney lost Iowa last time and became unelectable.
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АverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #930 on: December 10, 2011, 02:37:33 am »
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It's all about the electable status. He wins Iowa, and he becomes electable. Romney lost Iowa last time and became unelectable.

I don't think you know what "electable" is.
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Korwinist
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« Reply #931 on: December 10, 2011, 10:21:43 am »
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It's all about the electable status. He wins Iowa, and he becomes electable. Romney lost Iowa last time and became unelectable.

I don't think you know what "electable" is.

He already performs great against Obama, but he's rarely considered because there is little view that he can beat Romney to get to Obama.

However, if he wins Iowa, the "Ron Paul has a 10% ceiling and is going nowhere" view disappears. Depending on South Carolina and New Hampshire, he could knock out Gingrich (easier, with a win in South Carolina) or Romney (harder but far more worthwhile, with a win in New Hampshire). A Paul vs Gingrich contest (with a win in NH) would strongly favour Paul in most of the west and midwest (where his biggest areas of support eg. Washington, Idaho, Montana are) as well as the northeast, which is really all he needs to win. A Paul vs Romney contest would be trickier, but Romney's strongest areas are also often heavily contested by Paul (Nevada, Maine, etc), and I doubt the anti-Romney voters in the south would suddenly jump ship to Romney if Gingrich failed twice.

So I'll elaborate with more detailed percentages:
Paul wins Iowa: 50% (to 40% to Newt and 10% to Romney, justified by his good polling numbers, lack of chances to lose them short of sudden attacks which would legitimize him as a candidate, and likely superior turnout).
If Paul loses Iowa, chances of nomination are maybe 1% (Maybe a strong second could keep him up enough for close wins in caucus states and a decent position in a brokered convention). If he wins, they are about 50%.
Paul wins NH (after Iowa obviously): 30% (to Romney's 60% and Gingrich's 10%, justified by his strong presence there and momentum)
Paul wins nomination if he wins NH or loses: 70%/40% (He could beat Romney alone, but it'd be harder than Gingrich, though a NH win would give huge momentum after Iowa)
Paul wins SC: 40% (no candidate strongholds or massive focus here, but it's not an environment favourable to Paul unless he's already won Iowa)
Paul wins nomination if he wins SC: 60%/45% (Gingrich is easier to beat than Romney, but SC is right before Florida, which he won't win no matter what but could perform okay in, and Nevada which he could)
Paul wins nomination if he wins all of the above: 80% (No opposition left in practical terms, unlikely to lose barring incredible mischief on part of GOP officials)
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Zarn
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« Reply #932 on: December 10, 2011, 10:24:15 am »
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It's all about the electable status. He wins Iowa, and he becomes electable. Romney lost Iowa last time and became unelectable.

I don't think you know what "electable" is.

You haven't been paying attention. I'll try to make it easy.

People say "Paul no electable!"

Paul win Iowa!

People say "Paul maybe electable. We vote Paul."
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АverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #933 on: December 10, 2011, 02:16:42 pm »
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Try to consider what "electability" means outside the Paulite bubble of epistemic closure and wishful thinking.

Winning between 1/4 and 1/3 of the vote  in a caucus state in which you've been campaigning heavily for months by no reasonable measure equates to a demonstration of electability. Nor will it be perceived as such by party actors, the media, and the electorate. (The same holds true, by the way, for Bachmann and Santorum.)

What justification is there for the idea that Republicans are withholding support from Paul because they perceive him as unelectable? Doesn't it make more sense to assume that his lack of support instead stems from his important, substantive differences with the party mainstream on issues of national security and foreign policy?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #934 on: December 10, 2011, 03:49:35 pm »

Final pre-debate update: Gingrich is going after the Cain vote by being one third of the way to 99.9.  Huntsman is taking the path of the dark side, by being 0.06 away from 6.66.

Up: Gingrich, Paul
Down: Romney

GOP nominee

Romney 46.0
Gingrich 33.3
Paul 8.1
Huntsman 6.6
Perry 2.0
Bachmann 1.6
Santorum 0.7

Winning individual

Obama 50.5
Romney 24.0
Gingrich 16.1
Paul 5.0
Huntsman 3.9
Clinton 1.1
Perry 0.9
Bachmann 0.6
Santorum 0.4
Trump 0.4
Biden 0.2
Bloomberg 0.2
Palin 0.2
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« Reply #935 on: December 10, 2011, 04:28:12 pm »
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That's the problem with Huntsman's strategy: the devil's in the details.
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« Reply #936 on: December 10, 2011, 04:36:41 pm »
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That was the best analysis ever Morden
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #937 on: December 10, 2011, 05:20:22 pm »
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It's all about the electable status. He wins Iowa, and he becomes electable. Romney lost Iowa last time and became unelectable.

I don't think you know what "electable" is.

You haven't been paying attention. I'll try to make it easy.

People say "Paul no electable!"

Paul win Iowa!

People say "Paul maybe electable. We vote Paul."

Even if we assume that your hackish fantasy will come true, winning nomination doesn't make one electable in general election.
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Korwinist
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« Reply #938 on: December 10, 2011, 08:10:28 pm »
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It's all about the electable status. He wins Iowa, and he becomes electable. Romney lost Iowa last time and became unelectable.

I don't think you know what "electable" is.

You haven't been paying attention. I'll try to make it easy.

People say "Paul no electable!"

Paul win Iowa!

People say "Paul maybe electable. We vote Paul."

Even if we assume that your hackish fantasy will come true, winning nomination doesn't make one electable in general election.

No, the polls indicate that he is electable in the general election, especially with the independents who are generally more favourable to him than any other Republican (including Romney). Is it a hackish fantasy to think a Romney win in Iowa would seal the deal for him to win the nomination?

Besides that, the fact that Paul has the unique ability to slide to the left of Obama (when it comes to foreign policy especially) when needed gives him a strength outside the Republican base that the rest of the field lacks.

Quote
Try to consider what "electability" means outside the Paulite bubble of epistemic closure and wishful thinking.

Ever watch the news? Whenever Paul is mentioned, count how many times "unelectable", "gadfly", "perennial candidate" or some variation thereof is mentioned, then compare it to an actual unelectable candidate like Perry, Bachmann or Santorum and see how often its used to describe them. Anyhow,

Quote
Winning between 1/4 and 1/3 of the vote  in a caucus state in which you've been campaigning heavily for months by no reasonable measure equates to a demonstration of electability. Nor will it be perceived as such by party actors, the media, and the electorate. (The same holds true, by the way, for Bachmann and Santorum.)

With a crowded field like this, practically no one is capable of getting more than 1/3rd of the vote anyway short of a calamity. If Gingrich won Iowa by that margin (and that's almost certainly what he'll win it by if he wins it at all), I doubt you'd claim that "it proves nothing because Gingrich only won by a little bit".

Remember when Obama narrowly won Iowa, or when McCain slid past a 13% nationwide polling average to dominate the rest of the election? The earlier states paint the picture for the later ones, and the margin of victory is only a bonus.
Quote

What justification is there for the idea that Republicans are withholding support from Paul because they perceive him as unelectable? Doesn't it make more sense to assume that his lack of support instead stems from his important, substantive differences with the party mainstream on issues of national security and foreign policy?

Again, news coverage.

National security and foreign policy aren't deal breakers with the Republicans, especially not when the economy is the biggest issue. Gingrich and Romney both have many, many more differences from the "mainstream" than Paul, and their issues actually stem from the biggest issues (backing TARP, previously opposing gun rights, stabbing fellow Republicans in the back, etc).

Anyway, even going by polling, Republican support for foreign wars is pretty low. IIRC a poll came out a while back showing at least half of Republicans retrospectively think the war in Iraq was a bad idea and that the war in Afghanistan should be ended soon.

There is no reason to think that a single area of disagreement in what happens to be a fairly minor issue with what is at best a slim majority of the party is causing Republicans to refuse to accept him.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #939 on: December 10, 2011, 10:55:08 pm »

Post-debate update: Gingrich gains somewhat.  A bit of a drop for Huntsman.

Romney 46.8
Gingrich 34.9
Paul 8.2
Huntsman 6.0
Perry 2.0
Bachmann 1.7
Santorum 0.8
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« Reply #940 on: December 10, 2011, 11:32:26 pm »

Gingrich narrowing the gap a bit more in the last half hour.  Bachmann ahead of Perry....

Romney 44.6
Gingrich 36.9
Paul 8.0
Huntsman 6.0
Bachmann 2.1
Perry 1.9
Santorum 0.8
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« Reply #941 on: December 10, 2011, 11:32:49 pm »
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That is strange.... I would have thought Perry would pick up more then Bachmann after that debate
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« Reply #942 on: December 10, 2011, 11:37:41 pm »
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Romney reminds me of the 2005 Indianapolis Colts
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« Reply #943 on: December 11, 2011, 02:40:20 pm »
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Speaking of betting, Romney's offer is really dropping him on intrade.
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« Reply #944 on: December 11, 2011, 03:17:27 pm »
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Gingrich within 2.3 of Romney on last transaction (though bid-ask splits are a bit greater)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #945 on: December 12, 2011, 02:49:10 am »

GOP nomination

Romney 42.2
Gingrich 37.7
Paul 7.5
Huntsman 6.2
Perry 2.3
Bachmann 1.8
Santorum 0.8

Iowa

Gingrich 60.0
Paul 21.1
Romney 10.0
Bachmann 4.5
Perry 2.4
Santorum 1.6

New Hampshire

Romney 69.9
Gingrich 14.0
Huntsman 10.4
Paul 5.0

South Carolina

Gingrich 71.0
Romney 18.0
Paul 5.2
Huntsman 2.0
Bachmann 1.6
Perry 1.1
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« Reply #946 on: December 12, 2011, 02:57:02 am »
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So is Gingrich more like McCain or Obama was in 2008?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #947 on: December 12, 2011, 04:13:26 am »

So is Gingrich more like McCain or Obama was in 2008?

At this point in 2007?  Obama was at 34.0 to win the Democratic nomination, and McCain was only at 9.2 to win the GOP nomination.  So in that sense, more like Obama.  But Obama had been the frontrunner's chief adversary for the whole preceding year, which is quite unlike the situation with Gingrich.
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« Reply #948 on: December 12, 2011, 03:54:18 pm »
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Romney is going to experience a major NH drop if he loses badly in Iowa/Gingrich wins.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #949 on: December 13, 2011, 03:21:46 pm »

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

Romney 44.0
Gingrich 34.2
Paul 8.0
Huntsman 6.0
Perry 2.8
Bachmann 1.9
Santorum 0.9

If Paul ends up with a narrow win in Iowa (say, ~25%, just a couple of percentage points ahead of Gingrich), then what will his price be on Intrade the next day?
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