The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[N.i.K.]

I think it has been settled. ROMNEY IS IN!!!

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty again flips with Palin for 2nd place; Huckabee rebounds slightly, but is still down from where he was pre-Clemmons:

Romney 23.0
Pawlenty 19.2
Palin 17.1
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.8
Barbour 7.5
Gingrich 7.1
Daniels 4.9

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

I probably sound like a broken record but here goes...

The Healthcare Bill will pass tomorrow.  The GOP has already tipped their hand.  They're going after mandates calling them unconstitutional.  This will be a staple of the 2010 campaigns. Romney is too high.

As for Huckabee, if he runs, he's still the favorite to win Iowa again.  And if he wins Iowa, he becomes the favorite to win South Carolina after that.  And if he wins both, he's then in a 2-person race at worst.  He's too low.

Thune way too high if for no other reason that there's no sign he'll run.  If he starts putting an organization, he could leapfrog over others.

Palin is a wild card.  I'd rank her the favorite if she weren't such a high risk to say something insane that blows up her campaign.

Pawlenty looks to be placed about right.

[Jayhawker]

Pawlenty has little chance at winning the nomination. He has had a decent record as Governor, and his politics appear ideal for the Republican party. But once he gets out campaigning, I think he's toast. He might break 20% in Iowa, and will of course win Minnesota, and possibly a few other Midwest states. But his chances overall aren't great.
After doing some thinking, I think that if Palin runs, which I'm not thinking she will, she will be the nominee. Many Republicans are drawn to her, and once she gets out there campaigning again, they will be drawn to her again. I'd be lying if I told you there was no chance I would ever vote for her in the primaries.

[President Mitt]

Pawlenty isn't that bad though.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin and Pawlenty flip yet again.  Thune gains even more, making him ridiculously overvalued, considering that he hasn't really done anything to indicate that he's going to run:

Romney 26.0
Palin 20.5
Pawlenty 17.0
Thune 15.0
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 7.0

[GOP732]

Could Palins bump be because she joined Fox News?

[Mr. Morden]

Could Palins bump be because she joined Fox News?

In a rational universe, that would cause her share price to go *down*, as it demonstrates that she's trying to cash in on her celebrity in the world of punditry, rather than continue her career as an actual politician.

[N.i.K.]

Romney's lead has been pretty decisive. Pawlenty won't win, he's too much of a bore.

[Poundingtherock]

Palin has taken the lead on Intrade.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, everyone but Palin has declined:

Palin 21.5
Romney 21.1
Thune 8.2
Pawlenty 7.8
Huckabee 7.7

Of course, Palin also held the lead very briefly a few months ago, and Romney quickly retook it.  May very well happen again.

[N.i.K.]

Why does my Intrade show Romney at 21.2/24.0 and Palin at 19.8/21.5? Oh, nvm, looking at the bid.

[Poundingtherock]

I expect after this Saturday evening that Palin will hold the lead until Romney releases his book.

I expect Romney's book to tank (meaning it won't make the top 10 or if it does, the NY Times will give him a dagger symbol, indicating bulk sales)

[N.i.K.]

I expect after this Saturday evening that Palin will hold the lead until Romney releases his book.

I expect Romney's book to tank (meaning it won't make the top 10 or if it does, the NY Times will give him a dagger symbol, indicating bulk sales)

Of course he won't be able to compete with Palin in book sales; She is a better known figure nationally.

[Poundingtherock]

I disagree that she is a better known figure nationally.

There's a distinction between name ID and favorability/unfavorability rankings.

More people have an opinion about Palin but I would suspect they aren't far apart in terms of name ID (which may or may not be a bad thing for Romney as I suspect that the Republicans who are undecided about him break against him 2-to-1).

[Mr. Morden]

Palin's book was also a tell all book about the 2008 election.  Romney's book is an actual policy platform.  Obviously the latter will not be able to generate more than a tiny fraction of the free media as the former.

[Mr. Morden]

And Romney is back in the lead:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

[paul718]

And Romney is back in the lead:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

Palin at 20.0 still worries me.  And I assume Newtie is right behind Huckabee? (too lazy to check inTrade, myself )

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich is only at 2.4.

[Poundingtherock]

Morden,

I think she takes the lead again after Saturday nigt (assuming she performs well with her nationally televised Tea Party Convention speech).

[N.i.K.]

Remember George Allen and Bill Frist? LOL.

[Poundingtherock]

Palin 22.5
Romney 21.2
Thune 11
Pawlenty 8

[Beet]

Palin is now up to 23.9. I guess someone else is buying other than myself.

[Sam Spade]

Palin is now up to 23.9. I guess someone else is buying other than myself.

I'd certainly be buying, fwiw...

[paul718]

Palin is now up to 23.9. I guess someone else is buying other than myself.

How does her value go up after she embarrassed herself at the Tea Party thing?