The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

GOP nomination:

Romney 24.8
Palin 18.9
Thune 13.6
Pawlenty 7.8
Huckabee 6.2
Gingrich 5.6
J. Bush 5.5
Daniels 4.9
Christie 3.9
Ryan 3.2
Rubio 2.7
Barbour 2.6
Paul 2.0
Johnson 1.6
Pence 1.5

Winning party:

Dems 60.0
GOP 42.0
3rd party / indy 3.4

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

GOP nomination:

Romney 24.8
Palin 18.9
Thune 13.6
Pawlenty 7.8
Huckabee 6.2
Gingrich 5.6
J. Bush 5.5
Daniels 4.9
Christie 3.9
Ryan 3.2
Rubio 2.7
Barbour 2.6
Paul 2.0
Johnson 1.6
Pence 1.5

Winning party:

Dems 60.0
GOP 42.0
3rd party / indy 3.4

Thune looks like he's falling prey to the curse of winning 100% of the vote.

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

[Poundingtherock]

I wonder if Johnson can get hot in New Hampshire.  Perhaps Palin, Pawlenty, and co. should tell all their supporter to all vote for Johnson in New Hampshire so he can gut out a win and end the Romney campaign.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

[Gravis Marketing]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

[feeblepizza]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/pence-will-run-for-governor

I'll say that the official announcement should come in December.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/pence-will-run-for-governor

I'll say that the official announcement should come in December.

seems more like speculation, if you're Pence and know you have a shot at winning IA, why would you run for gov?

[Mr. Morden]

And... Pence lower than Johnson!  That's a guy whose buyers have heard he's running for governor.

is there any link to a story involving Pence running for gov?

It's an announcement not a rumor, Google should do it.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/pence-will-run-for-governor

Yeah, we had a thread discussing that a while ago.  Nothing there is official.  That's one GOP operative in Indiana saying that Pence's people have told him that he's running for governor.  Neither Pence nor his underlings have confirmed it on the record.  A few days after that story came out, Pence said that he hasn't decided what to do yet, and won't be making any announcements on this until after the first of the year:

http://www.gop12.com/2010/11/pence-2012-decision-after-january.html

[Gravis Marketing]

Oh, oops.

In any case, no House member has won the White House directly since James Garfield, I think.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Oh, oops.

In any case, no House member has won the White House directly since James Garfield, I think.

Not just that but a bunch of the better-knowns- Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich- are likely to pull from the same voters and donors he'd need.  Plus, likely well-funded lower-tierers Thune and Santorum.  And Daniels.  Not clear how many of those folks will run but it's probably enough to make winning the gub. nomination seem much easier to pull off.

[Mr. Morden]

The Romney-Palin gap continues to slowly tighten.

GOP nomination:

Romney 22.5
Palin 19.3
Thune 12.7
Pawlenty 7.0
Huckabee 6.7
J. Bush 4.4
Gingrich 4.4
Christie 3.7
Daniels 3.6
Barbour 3.2
Rubio 1.7
Paul 1.6
Perry 1.6
Ryan 1.5
Johnson 1.3

winning party:

Dems 56.2
GOP 41.8
other 3.5

[Yelnoc]

Wow, Gingrich has really slipped.

[Mr. Morden]

Everyone except Palin and Huckabee (and a couple of the people at 1-2%) has slipped over the past few months.  I think that's because the volume has increased a lot, and the aggregrate #s for all the candidates combined now makes a lot more sense.  The total probability for the top 15 candidates is now ~95%.  Whereas a few months ago, it was well over 100, which makes no sense.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee passes Pawlenty for 4th place, and Bush manages to rebound to where he was two weeks ago:

GOP nomination

Romney 22.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 12.6
Huckabee 7.2
Pawlenty 7.0
J. Bush 5.5
Gingrich 4.5
Barbour 4.1
Daniels 3.9
Christie 3.6
Rubio 2.0
DeMint 1.4
Ryan 1.4
Paul 1.3
Johnson 1.2

Will Palin run?
yes 75.0

Dem nomination

Obama 85.0
Clinton 7.1
(Bayh and Biden are also on the board, but trading volume is so low that the price is meaningless.)

Winning party

Dems 60.0
GOP 42.0
other 2.6

[© Tweed the Younger]

Palin to run up to 1:3 on your money .. worth a short? thoughts from the residents?

[Mr. Morden]

Palin to run up to 1:3 on your money .. worth a short? thoughts from the residents?

I definitely think the probability that she runs is less than 75%, so if I'm betting on that market, I would be shorting.  But obviously, it's risky.  Up to you whether you think it's worth it.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a new article up about how Thune is in third place in the 2012 GOP nomination betting on both Betfair and Intrade, the two political betting exchanges with the highest volume:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45697.html

“I suspect that Thune ranks as highly as he does because many knowledgeable observers are not convinced that the more established candidates can sustain a winning message and take the nomination,” said the University of Missouri’s Peverill Squire, a former University of Iowa political scientist who closely followed the school’s electronic market. “Thune is untested on the national stage, but he is an attractive candidate with no known warts. I think he represents a ‘rest-of-the-field’ wager, a bet many observers are willing to make at the moment.”
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.
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On Intrade, Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is currently the runaway favorite: On Wednesday, his contract cost approximately 22 cents. The contract’s payout is $1 per share, so anyone who buys it at this price would win about 78 cents.

A very close second is Palin, at about 19 cents. Thune is third at about 13 cents, and Huckabee shares fourth place, at about 7 cents, with Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

On Betfair, Romney has the best odds — 29-5, or about a 19.5 percent chance of winning — followed by Palin, with a 17 percent chance, and Thune, with a 12.5 percent chance.

[Yelnoc]

Well, if it comes down to the top 5 I will backing Thune for the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee gains:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Huckabee gains:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

He's still undervalued.  I'd switch him with Thune.  Odd how much Thune has dropped for no apparent reason.  Pence is undervalued too.  I assume the guber. rumors.  Or maybe GOP gaining power in Midterms.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence increased to 2.0 shortly after I posted that.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade has made the big time, getting a mention on Colbert.  Video here:

http://www.indecisionforever.com/2010/12/03/stephen-colbert-on-2012-hopeful-john-thunes-presidenciminess/

[jacob_101]

Come on, someone please knock Romney out of the lead....oh wait Palin is second.  Nevermind.  My guess is Huck and T-Paw continue their rise and Romney falls to third by spring.  I don't get why Romney is first.  Anyone think he has a real shot at winning the nomination?  How can he get past the same issues he had last time?  People see him as a phony and flip-flopper and not conservative enough.  Republicans will nominate a more conservative candidate this time around.

[Ben Romney]

Thune would be worst nightmare for the Obumbler

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee gives back some of his gains, and Daniels and Pence show a pulse:

Winning party
Dems 56.0
GOP 41.4
Other 4.0

GOP nominee
Romney 23.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 13.0
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.6
Daniels 5.0
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.4
Barbour 4.0
J. Bush 4.0
Christie 3.2
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.4
Perry 1.4
Ryan 1.3

Will Palin run?
yes 72.7

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3