The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Bull Moose Base]

Oh, oops.

In any case, no House member has won the White House directly since James Garfield, I think.

Not just that but a bunch of the better-knowns- Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich- are likely to pull from the same voters and donors he'd need.  Plus, likely well-funded lower-tierers Thune and Santorum.  And Daniels.  Not clear how many of those folks will run but it's probably enough to make winning the gub. nomination seem much easier to pull off.

[Mr. Morden]

The Romney-Palin gap continues to slowly tighten.

GOP nomination:

Romney 22.5
Palin 19.3
Thune 12.7
Pawlenty 7.0
Huckabee 6.7
J. Bush 4.4
Gingrich 4.4
Christie 3.7
Daniels 3.6
Barbour 3.2
Rubio 1.7
Paul 1.6
Perry 1.6
Ryan 1.5
Johnson 1.3

winning party:

Dems 56.2
GOP 41.8
other 3.5

[Yelnoc]

Wow, Gingrich has really slipped.

[Mr. Morden]

Everyone except Palin and Huckabee (and a couple of the people at 1-2%) has slipped over the past few months.  I think that's because the volume has increased a lot, and the aggregrate #s for all the candidates combined now makes a lot more sense.  The total probability for the top 15 candidates is now ~95%.  Whereas a few months ago, it was well over 100, which makes no sense.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee passes Pawlenty for 4th place, and Bush manages to rebound to where he was two weeks ago:

GOP nomination

Romney 22.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 12.6
Huckabee 7.2
Pawlenty 7.0
J. Bush 5.5
Gingrich 4.5
Barbour 4.1
Daniels 3.9
Christie 3.6
Rubio 2.0
DeMint 1.4
Ryan 1.4
Paul 1.3
Johnson 1.2

Will Palin run?
yes 75.0

Dem nomination

Obama 85.0
Clinton 7.1
(Bayh and Biden are also on the board, but trading volume is so low that the price is meaningless.)

Winning party

Dems 60.0
GOP 42.0
other 2.6

[© tweed]

Palin to run up to 1:3 on your money .. worth a short? thoughts from the residents?

[Mr. Morden]

Palin to run up to 1:3 on your money .. worth a short? thoughts from the residents?

I definitely think the probability that she runs is less than 75%, so if I'm betting on that market, I would be shorting.  But obviously, it's risky.  Up to you whether you think it's worth it.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a new article up about how Thune is in third place in the 2012 GOP nomination betting on both Betfair and Intrade, the two political betting exchanges with the highest volume:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45697.html

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[Yelnoc]

Well, if it comes down to the top 5 I will backing Thune for the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee gains:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

[Bull Moose Base]

Huckabee gains:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

He's still undervalued.  I'd switch him with Thune.  Odd how much Thune has dropped for no apparent reason.  Pence is undervalued too.  I assume the guber. rumors.  Or maybe GOP gaining power in Midterms.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence increased to 2.0 shortly after I posted that.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade has made the big time, getting a mention on Colbert.  Video here:

http://www.indecisionforever.com/2010/12/03/stephen-colbert-on-2012-hopeful-john-thunes-presidenciminess/

[jacob_101]

Come on, someone please knock Romney out of the lead....oh wait Palin is second.  Nevermind.  My guess is Huck and T-Paw continue their rise and Romney falls to third by spring.  I don't get why Romney is first.  Anyone think he has a real shot at winning the nomination?  How can he get past the same issues he had last time?  People see him as a phony and flip-flopper and not conservative enough.  Republicans will nominate a more conservative candidate this time around.

[Ben Romney]

Thune would be worst nightmare for the Obumbler

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee gives back some of his gains, and Daniels and Pence show a pulse:

Winning party
Dems 56.0
GOP 41.4
Other 4.0

GOP nominee
Romney 23.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 13.0
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.6
Daniels 5.0
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.4
Barbour 4.0
J. Bush 4.0
Christie 3.2
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.4
Perry 1.4
Ryan 1.3

Will Palin run?
yes 72.7

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

And here are the latest "winning individual" prices at Betfair:

Obama 47
Romney 9
Palin 8
Thune 5
Daniels 5
H. Clinton 3
Huckabee 3
Pawlenty 3
Gingrich 3

[Mr. Morden]

Palin and Daniels both gain, with Daniels (barely) edging out Pawlenty for 5th place.  Paul gains a bit too.  Pawlenty's at pretty much an all time low, and I think it might be the first time in over a year that he's not in the top 5:

Romney 23.4
Palin 21.4
Thune 12.4
Huckabee 7.5
Daniels 6.5
Pawlenty 6.3
Gingrich 4.7
Pence 4.5
J. Bush 4.3
Barbour 4.0
Christie 2.9
Paul 2.1
Perry 2.0
Rubio 2.0

[Bull Moose Base]

Don't follow the logic of Daniels rising after the tax cut debate is rescheduled for 2012 when advocating  their permanence will be requisite to winning the nomination, unless Daniels is prepared to do that, contradicting earlier statements.  The only recent good wind for him is that the Supreme Court case on the insurance mandate looks likely to happen close to or during the primary and the timing could suck for Romney, notwithstanding his hooting and hollering for it to be struck down.  Actually, those two events in the past week would bode well for Pawlenty.  Except his problematic pardon also happened in the past week.  I wonder if Palin will ever lead intrade before Iowa.

PS can Americns get away with betting on intrade?

[Yelnoc]

I find it interesting that at this point in the last Presidential race McCain was already grossing half while Romney has even broken a fourth. 

Of course, go Daniels!  It's nice to see him above Pawlenty as he deserves to be.  I do wonder what has trigger his recent upswing.

[Mr. Morden]

The top 3 have all dropped, and Daniels has moved ahead of Huckabee for fourth place:

Romney 21.5
Palin 19.1
Thune 10.1
Daniels 7.0
Huckabee 6.9
Pawlenty 6.0
Pence 4.5
Barbour 4.1
J. Bush 4.0
Gingrich 4.0
Christie 2.7
Paul 2.3
Rubio 2.0
Johnson 1.3
Perry 1.2

Palin's drop can largely be attributed to increased skepticism about whether she'll run, as "Palin to run for president in 2012" is down to 68.6.  Might be related to the rumors about TLC offering her a second season of her show.  Similarly, Huckabee's price might be deflated because of the rumor about him negotiating a new contract with Fox:

link

[Bull Moose Base]

I wonder if intrade is corrupted by the press Thune got off it that was picked up by Colbert.  It has the effect of momentum detection akin to polls but is much easier for a candidate's people to tamper with.  Though it'd be embarrassing to get busted. As for Palin I'm not convinced she couldn't both do another season for TLC and run.  Also, I don't know Huckabee's ratings but I've expected FOX to make him a generous offer because his reupping would have an indirect boost to network wide ratings assuming his absence from the 2012 race helps a Palin candidacy.

[Poundingtherock]

At what point will Romney's Intrade people abandon ship?

If he's not up by at least 5 in the upcoming Florida primary poll with both Huckabee and Palin in the race, his candidacy as a duck.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nominee
Obama 84.0
Clinton 6.1

Republican nominee
Romney 19.1
Palin 16.6
Thune 11.9
Daniels 8.1
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.1
Pence 5.1
Gingrich 5.0
Barbour 2.7
Huntsman 2.7
Christie 2.6
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.7
Johnson 1.4

That's close to the lowest for Palin in about a year, and close to the lowest for Romney in about two years.  "Palin to run for President in 2012" is down to 58.0, which is about its lowest point in six months.

Four years ago:

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 21.1
Edwards 14.8
Gore 6.9
Richardson 1.8
Kerry 1.6
Biden 1.6
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7


Republicans
McCain 48.2
Giuliani 16.6
Romney 16.3
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Brownback 2.0
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.5
Pataki 0.5

[Bull Moose Base]

Democratic nominee
Obama 84.0
Clinton 6.1

Republican nominee
Romney 19.1
Palin 16.6
Thune 11.9
Daniels 8.1
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.1
Pence 5.1
Gingrich 5.0
Barbour 2.7
Huntsman 2.7
Christie 2.6
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.7
Johnson 1.4

That's close to the lowest for Palin in about a year, and close to the lowest for Romney in about two years.  "Palin to run for President in 2012" is down to 58.0, which is about its lowest point in six months.

Four years ago:

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 21.1
Edwards 14.8
Gore 6.9
Richardson 1.8
Kerry 1.6
Biden 1.6
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7


Republicans
McCain 48.2
Giuliani 16.6
Romney 16.3
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Brownback 2.0
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.5
Pataki 0.5

Top 3 Republican candidates put together = lower than Hillary alone or McCain alone, 4 years ago.