The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Time to short the snot out of Perry.

[The Mikado]

Bubble.

You know, Romney is like a blue chip in this "market."  He might not be that impressive, you might not get a great return, but he's solid, reliable, and won't flare out.  Romney is the "conservative" investment.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin is back up to fourth place.

Up: Palin
Down: Bachmann

GOP nomination

Perry 31.4
Romney 31.0
Bachmann 8.0
Palin 7.8
Huntsman 7.4
Pawlenty 5.9
Giuliani 2.0
Paul 1.9
Christie 1.5
Gingrich 0.8
Pataki 0.7
Cain 0.6
Johnson 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Dem. nomination

Obama 95.6
Clinton 9.0
Biden 1.6

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 87.5
Clinton 7.0

[Yelnoc]

I wonder what caused the Palin surge?  Also, whoever is still holding onto Clinton is a fool.

[The Mikado]

Also, whoever is still holding onto Clinton is a fool.

Hint: it's people that don't expect Obama to be alive a year from now.


EDIT: Also, Bachmann is a bargain at those prices.  Buy buy buy.

[Yelnoc]

Also, whoever is still holding onto Clinton is a fool.

Hint: it's people that don't expect Obama to be alive a year from now.


EDIT: Also, Bachmann is a bargain at those prices.  Buy buy buy.

You think Clinton would primary Biden immediately after the death of the president?

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder what caused the Palin surge?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20085110-503544.html

[Yelnoc]

I wonder what caused the Palin surge?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20085110-503544.html

September is too late, IMO.

[Thomas D]

Also, whoever is still holding onto Clinton is a fool.

Hint: it's people that don't expect Obama to be alive a year from now.


EDIT: Also, Bachmann is a bargain at those prices.  Buy buy buy.

You think Clinton would primary Biden immediately after the death of the president?

Exactly. Biden should be ahead of Clinton.

[tpfkaw]

In a Watergate-style scandal, Clinton would probably be less tainted than Biden.

[Bull Moose Base]

You're all misreading the Hillary number.  If there were a default-crash, the chances that Obama's approval fell to the 20s not so crazy.  Even with a deal, it's not so crazy.  The deal itself may well drop him into the mid-30s.

[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman passes Bachmann for 3rd place:

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4
Palin 6.1
Pawlenty 6.1
Paul 2.3
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.5
Ryan 1.0
Johnson 0.7
Cain 0.6
Gingrich 0.6
Pataki 0.5
Santorum 0.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 49.1
Obama 35.0
Edwards 7.2
Gore 4.2
Richardson 2.9
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.1
Thompson 30.8
Romney 17.3
McCain 6.2
Gingrich 3.2
Paul 3.1
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Cheney 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Powell 0.1

Yes, Gingrich was five times higher four years ago, when he wasn't a candidate.  He was still publicly holding open the possibility of running back in August 2007, but most people didn't think he'd do it.

[Yelnoc]

Lookie that...McCain and Huntsman in almost the exact same position....

[Torie]

I wonder when the two Mormons will start tearing each other to shreds. There is not room for both of them.

[Simfan34]

Lookie that...McCain and Huntsman in almost the exact same position....

Let's hope that isn't the only similarity. I think McCain was doing better in the polls, no?

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman passes Bachmann for 3rd place:

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4

That's just weird.

I'm a fan of Huntsman but the number seems overinflated based on the current hype-o-meter.  I certainly wouldn't put him above Bachmann right now, though his ceiling is about as high as it gets among the candidates, IMO.

I guess we'll see where Bachmann is as more polling comes out with Perry included.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Huntsman passes Bachmann for 3rd place:

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4

That's just weird.

I'm a fan of Huntsman but the number seems overinflated based on the current hype-o-meter.  I certainly wouldn't put him above Bachmann right now, though his ceiling is about as high as it gets among the candidates, IMO.

I guess we'll see where Bachmann is as more polling comes out with Perry included.

any ranking that has Pawlenty at 6.1 and not <0.5 is smoking crack...

[TheGlobalizer]

Huntsman passes Bachmann for 3rd place:

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4

That's just weird.

I'm a fan of Huntsman but the number seems overinflated based on the current hype-o-meter.  I certainly wouldn't put him above Bachmann right now, though his ceiling is about as high as it gets among the candidates, IMO.

I guess we'll see where Bachmann is as more polling comes out with Perry included.

any ranking that has Pawlenty at 6.1 and not <0.5 is smoking crack...

Yeah, that too.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

folks, there is money to be made by shorting Pawlenty @ 6.1

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa straw poll:

Bachmann 69.8
Paul 20.0
Pawlenty 10.9
"other" 2.9
Romney 2.9
Palin 1.0

Iowa caucus

Bachmann 46.9
Perry 32.0
Palin 8.0
Pawlenty 6.9
Romney 5.0
Paul 4.0

NH primary

Romney 50.1
Huntsman 23.0
Perry 13.6
Paul 5.0
Bachmann 3.0
Palin 2.0
Pawlenty 1.5

[big bad fab]

Perry is the only bubble that could last a bit.
Let's see if he goes through the autumn.
Otherwise, it's OK for Romney (as it is in fact since the beginning).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

[Phony Moderate]

Pawlenty is now at 2.1....Ron Paul is at 2.6.

[Simfan34]

Perry and Romney tied

Perry 31.0
Romney 31.0
Huntsman 7.5
Palin 7.0
Bachmann 5.6
Christie 4.5
Paul 3.0
Pawlenty 2.1
Guliani 1.8
Gingrich 0.6
Johnson 0.6

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Palin above Bachmann? What the ?