The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

It's a bit odd though that Romney is currently not favored to win the first five primaries, while neither of the other "major" candidates are favored to win at least a single primary.

That's not strange at all.  Romney is favored in each of the first five primaries, but he's likely to lose at least one of them.  We just don't know which one.  And we don't know which of his opponents will beat him in one of those primaries, though Gingrich is the most likely.

This sort of thing happens all the time with probabilities.  It's like, the Packers are favored to win every game for the rest of the season, yet they'll probably lose at least one, but we don't know which one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That's not strange at all.  Romney is favored in each of the first five primaries, but he's likely to lose at least one of them.  We just don't know which one.

Yeah, like I said, it shows that nobody is sure of much at this point. I knew that without Intrade.

And we don't know which of his opponents will beat him in one of those primaries, though Gingrich is the most likely.

Not precisely, because there's currently no "Jon Huntsman/Michele Bachmann/Rick Santorum to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012" market which makes it a flawed prediction. In theory, such market, would it exist, could rate higher than the Gingrich market. Unless you're also deducing a certain probablity from the non-existence of such market.

[Mr. Morden]

That's not strange at all.  Romney is favored in each of the first five primaries, but he's likely to lose at least one of them.  We just don't know which one.

Yeah, like I said, it shows that nobody is sure of much at this point. I knew that without Intrade.

No one said Intrade is anything other than a conventional wisdom aggregator.  It always just tells you "what you already know".  Just like the odds offered on sports betting tell you what you already know.  What it does though, is quantify the conventional wisdom.  So you actually have to think "Ok, Romney is favored in this or that primary, but how do I quantify the probability of him winning?"

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Not precisely, because there's currently no "Jon Huntsman/Michele Bachmann/Rick Santorum to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012" market which makes it a flawed prediction. In theory, such market, would it exist, could rate higher than the Gingrich market. Unless you're also deducing a certain probablity from the non-existence of such market.
[/quote]

I would be stunned if any of those three were beating Gingrich in a hypothetical "will win at least one primary/caucus" market.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I would be stunned if any of those three were beating Gingrich in a hypothetical "will win at least one primary/caucus" market.

Today, sure.

Then again, people would have said the same about Gingrich very recently.

[Mr. Morden]

I would be stunned if any of those three were beating Gingrich in a hypothetical "will win at least one primary/caucus" market.

Today, sure.

Then again, people would have said the same about Gingrich very recently.

Yes, I'm talking about today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, I'm talking about today.

That's perhaps another problem. Intrade aims to tell us how likely a future event will occur. What it actually tells us (in this case) is how likely a hypothetical event would occur today. The thing is, the event doesn't occur today.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, I'm talking about today.

That's perhaps another problem. Intrade aims to tell us how likely a future event will occur. What it actually tells us (in this case) is how likely a hypothetical event would occur today. The thing is, the event doesn't occur today.

It aims to tell us the likelihood of a future event, given the information we currently have.  Obviously, the information we have changes, and the likelihoods change.  Compared to a month ago, Cain's odds of winning are down because of things like the sexual harassment charges coming to light.  I'm not sure why that should be considered a problem.  We have new information, and the odds change.  That happens irrespective of what's happening with Intrade.  Intrade simply reflects that reality.

It's not telling us how likely an event would be if it happened today.  If every state held its primary today, Gingrich would win the most delegates, yet Romney is way ahead of him on Intrade, because the betting markets don't believe Gingrich's lead will last.

[Mr. Morden]

Cain has rebounded slightly on his odds to win the nomination, but is down in the Iowa caucus market, and in fact Bachmann is now given a better chance of winning Iowa than he is.

Up: Gingrich, Huntsman, Cain
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 63.1
Gingrich 16.3
Huntsman 7.7
Paul 6.1
Cain 3.6
Perry 2.0
Bachmann 1.3
Santorum 0.8

Iowa

Romney 31.2
Gingrich 29.3
Paul 20.0
Bachmann 7.8
Cain 5.2
Perry 3.5
Santorum 3.0

[© tweed]

why is Huntsman trading so high?

[© tweed]

Gingrich surging.  Romney leads 61.6-19.9.

[The Mikado]

why is Huntsman trading so high?

He is a centimillionaire.  I don't think there's a rule saying candidates can't bet on themselves.

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich surges some more, now above 20.  And Gingrich has taken the lead in both the Iowa and South Carolina markets.  Romney is down to 3rd place in the Iowa caucus market, just barely behind Paul.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Romney, Huntsman

GOP nomination

Romney 56.2
Gingrich 23.9
Huntsman 6.5
Paul 5.6
Cain 4.1
Perry 2.0
Bachmann 1.3
Santorum 0.8
Johnson 0.2
Palin 0.2
Roemer 0.2

Iowa

Gingrich 35.0
Paul 25.0
Romney 24.9
Bachmann 6.0
Cain 4.5
Perry 3.5
Santorum 2.5

New Hampshire

Romney 79.0
Gingrich 12.5
Huntsman 9.1
Paul 5.2

South Carolina

Gingrich 35.0
Romney 32.0
Cain 13.9
Huntsman 8.0
Paul 7.9

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich keeps gaining.  Now above 25.  Cain affair story pushes him all the way down to 1....behind Bachmann.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Romney, Cain

GOP prez. nominee

Romney 54.9
Gingrich 27.6
Paul 5.7
Huntsman 4.9
Perry 2.1
Bachmann 1.3
Cain 1.0
Santorum 0.7

Dem prez. nominee

Obama 93.6
Clinton 7.0
Biden 0.7

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 86.9
Clinton 16.5
Cuomo 5.0

[CLARENCE 2015!]

He is the highest non-Romney ever minus Perry

[GLPman]

Wow, Gingrich has really surged. I expect Romney's number to be in the low 40s by the time Iowa approaches.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Gingrich within 20 of Romney, Romney at risk of going below 50

Romney 50.4
Gingrich 31.5
Huntsman 6.0
Paul 5.9
Perry 2.5
Bachmann 1.3
Cain 1.1
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.1
Roemer 0.1

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Actually that apparently happened earlier today http://www.businessinsider.com/breaking-romney-falls-under-50-on-intrade-2011-11

[© tweed]

time to buy Romney?  just short of even money, less vig than you'd lay on a football game

[Middle-aged Europe]

All right, but these are finally some weird Intrade numbers :


Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 50.0%

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary 44.9%

Newt Gingrich to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012 40.0%

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

time to buy Romney?   just short of even money, less vig than you'd lay on a football game

to the contrary, short Romney all the way to 10%, cause he will be even money at 10%

current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Newt         60%
late entry  20%
Romney     10%
Huntsman   5%
Perry           2%
Cain            1.1%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%

though I would now place Cain at the very bottom

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Revised rankings 11/29/11

Newt          65%
Huntsman  15%
late entry   10%
Romney       5%
Perry           3%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%
Cain            0.1%

[Yelnoc]

Romney back above fifty, Cain drops below Santorum.

Romney 54.1
Gingrich 29.5
Huntsman 6.0
Paul 5.5
Perry 2.4
Bachman 1.9
Santorum 0.6
Cain 0.4

[Niemeyerite]

I want to see intrade after FL polls

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Revised rankings 11/29/11

Newt          65%
Huntsman  15%
late entry   10%
Romney       5%
Perry           3%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%
Cain            0.1%

I hope Keystone Phil appreciates the bone I threw him by placing Santorum 4th from the bottom.... 

[© tweed]

53.5-31.2...