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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 70625 times)
Senator Clarence
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« Reply #950 on: December 10, 2011, 11:32:49 pm »
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That is strange.... I would have thought Perry would pick up more then Bachmann after that debate
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« Reply #951 on: December 10, 2011, 11:37:41 pm »
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Romney reminds me of the 2005 Indianapolis Colts
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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« Reply #952 on: December 11, 2011, 02:40:20 pm »
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Speaking of betting, Romney's offer is really dropping him on intrade.
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« Reply #953 on: December 11, 2011, 03:17:27 pm »
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Gingrich within 2.3 of Romney on last transaction (though bid-ask splits are a bit greater)
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #954 on: December 12, 2011, 02:49:10 am »
GOP nomination

Romney 42.2
Gingrich 37.7
Paul 7.5
Huntsman 6.2
Perry 2.3
Bachmann 1.8
Santorum 0.8

Iowa

Gingrich 60.0
Paul 21.1
Romney 10.0
Bachmann 4.5
Perry 2.4
Santorum 1.6

New Hampshire

Romney 69.9
Gingrich 14.0
Huntsman 10.4
Paul 5.0

South Carolina

Gingrich 71.0
Romney 18.0
Paul 5.2
Huntsman 2.0
Bachmann 1.6
Perry 1.1
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Senator Clarence
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« Reply #955 on: December 12, 2011, 02:57:02 am »
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So is Gingrich more like McCain or Obama was in 2008?
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« Reply #956 on: December 12, 2011, 04:13:26 am »
Quote from: clarence on December 12, 2011, 02:57:02 am
So is Gingrich more like McCain or Obama was in 2008?

At this point in 2007?  Obama was at 34.0 to win the Democratic nomination, and McCain was only at 9.2 to win the GOP nomination.  So in that sense, more like Obama.  But Obama had been the frontrunner's chief adversary for the whole preceding year, which is quite unlike the situation with Gingrich.
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« Reply #957 on: December 12, 2011, 03:54:18 pm »
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Romney is going to experience a major NH drop if he loses badly in Iowa/Gingrich wins.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #958 on: December 13, 2011, 03:21:46 pm »
Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

Romney 44.0
Gingrich 34.2
Paul 8.0
Huntsman 6.0
Perry 2.8
Bachmann 1.9
Santorum 0.9

If Paul ends up with a narrow win in Iowa (say, ~25%, just a couple of percentage points ahead of Gingrich), then what will his price be on Intrade the next day?
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Quote from: Lunar on March 20, 2011, 10:58:04 am
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« Reply #959 on: December 13, 2011, 04:42:19 pm »
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In the upper 20's.  Gingrich will be below his, but still in the 20's.  And Romney will shoot back up above 60.
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« Reply #960 on: December 13, 2011, 08:52:14 pm »
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Romney just went up to 50, and Gingrich is now at 30. What happened?
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« Reply #961 on: December 13, 2011, 09:18:57 pm »
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I doubt it's this.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/13/key-gingrich-staff-member-departs-over-mormon-comment/
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Quote from: Peternerdman on December 31, 2012, 03:34:54 pm
Never thought I'd say this, but I'm praying for another black-yellow majority, and for the SPD to get shattered.  It's exactly what it deserves.
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« Reply #962 on: December 13, 2011, 09:28:16 pm »
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Quote from: Blackwater NiK on December 13, 2011, 08:52:14 pm
Romney just went up to 50, and Gingrich is now at 30. What happened?

I bet someone bet $10,000 on Mitt.  Any theories who?
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« Reply #963 on: December 13, 2011, 09:28:45 pm »
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Quote from: Blackwater NiK on December 13, 2011, 08:52:14 pm
Romney just went up to 50, and Gingrich is now at 30. What happened?

Probably the increasing possibility that Ron Paul could win Iowa.
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« Reply #964 on: December 14, 2011, 01:52:47 am »
Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

Romney 47.6
Gingrich 31.9
Paul 8.2
Huntsman 6.0
Perry 2.9
Bachmann 1.8
Santorum 0.9
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Quote from: Lunar on March 20, 2011, 10:58:04 am
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« Reply #965 on: December 14, 2011, 08:59:10 am »
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Gingrich tripled down on RWSE yesterday by calling the Roadmap "stupid." That's without mentioning already provoking George Will into taking Romney's side on the Bain thing.
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Quote from: Peternerdman on December 31, 2012, 03:34:54 pm
Never thought I'd say this, but I'm praying for another black-yellow majority, and for the SPD to get shattered.  It's exactly what it deserves.
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« Reply #966 on: December 14, 2011, 04:48:44 pm »
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You guys haven't seen the Gingrich doodles yet? There is no way he is going to be the nominee. Clearly he is mentally ill.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #967 on: December 14, 2011, 05:52:28 pm »
Gingrich drops to 30.

Romney 48.3
Gingrich 30.0
Paul 8.3
Huntsman 5.4
Perry 3.2
Bachmann 2.0
Santorum 0.9

Less than two weeks ago, we were at:

Quote from: Mr. Morden on December 02, 2011, 04:22:41 am
Romney 46.6
Gingrich 38.1
Paul 5.0
Huntsman 4.9
Perry 1.8
Bachmann 1.5
Cain 0.9
Santorum 0.7

So, Gingrich has been dropping, while Paul and Perry have been gaining.
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Quote from: Lunar on March 20, 2011, 10:58:04 am
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« Reply #968 on: December 14, 2011, 07:07:19 pm »
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What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #969 on: December 14, 2011, 07:38:02 pm »
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Quote from: Politico on December 14, 2011, 04:48:44 pm
You guys haven't seen the Gingrich doodles yet? There is no way he is going to be the nominee. Clearly he is mentally ill.

Mentally ill?  He's the leader (possibly) of civilizing forces!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #970 on: December 14, 2011, 07:51:56 pm »
Quote from: Yelnoc on December 14, 2011, 07:07:19 pm
What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?

Four years ago at this time:

Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 12, 2007, 08:08:33 pm
Democrats
Clinton 60.1
Obama 34.0
Edwards 4.5
Gore 2.8
Biden 0.3
Richardson 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.1
Romney 19.5
Huckabee 17.8
McCain 9.2
Paul 6.0
Thomspon 5.0
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
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« Reply #971 on: December 14, 2011, 09:40:32 pm »
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So this debate tomorrow is really it until Iowa? Barring some gaffe on the campaign or some other amazing thing happens to thoroughly shake up the race.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #972 on: December 15, 2011, 12:07:35 am »
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Quote from: Mr. Morden on December 14, 2011, 07:51:56 pm
Quote from: Yelnoc on December 14, 2011, 07:07:19 pm
What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?

Four years ago at this time:

Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 12, 2007, 08:08:33 pm
Democrats
Clinton 60.1
Obama 34.0
Edwards 4.5
Gore 2.8
Biden 0.3
Richardson 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.1
Romney 19.5
Huckabee 17.8
McCain 9.2
Paul 6.0
Thomspon 5.0
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4


The GOP side of that shows how far ahead Atlas is over Intrade.  By December 2007, we had spotted the McCain resurrection and, IIRC, were all talking about the race as a tricorned contest between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.  Intrade hung on with Giuliani and his absurd Florida strategy far longer.
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« Reply #973 on: December 15, 2011, 09:37:56 am »
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someone went crazy and bought out a ton of Romney stock and shorted a bunch of Gingrich.  Romney traded at 60.5 on one recent transaction, 56.5 last; Gingrich at 20 last.  bid-ask on Gingrich suggests he should stabilize in the low to mid 20s.
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« Reply #974 on: December 15, 2011, 09:47:56 am »
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Quote from: © Boss Tweed on December 15, 2011, 09:37:56 am
someone went crazy and bought out a ton of Romney stock and shorted a bunch of Gingrich.  Romney traded at 60.5 on one recent transaction, 56.5 last; Gingrich at 20 last.  bid-ask on Gingrich suggests he should stabilize in the low to mid 20s.

Do they have inside information that something is going to be revealed tonight?
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