The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

In the upper 20's.  Gingrich will be below his, but still in the 20's.  And Romney will shoot back up above 60.

[Psychic Octopus]

Romney just went up to 50, and Gingrich is now at 30. What happened?

[RogueBeaver]

I doubt it's this.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/13/key-gingrich-staff-member-departs-over-mormon-comment/

[Bull Moose Base]

Romney just went up to 50, and Gingrich is now at 30. What happened?

I bet someone bet $10,000 on Mitt.  Any theories who?

[Volrath50]

Romney just went up to 50, and Gingrich is now at 30. What happened?

Probably the increasing possibility that Ron Paul could win Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

Romney 47.6
Gingrich 31.9
Paul 8.2
Huntsman 6.0
Perry 2.9
Bachmann 1.8
Santorum 0.9

[RogueBeaver]

Gingrich tripled down on RWSE yesterday by calling the Roadmap "stupid." That's without mentioning already provoking George Will into taking Romney's side on the Bain thing.

[Politico]

You guys haven't seen the Gingrich doodles yet? There is no way he is going to be the nominee. Clearly he is mentally ill.

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich drops to 30.

Romney 48.3
Gingrich 30.0
Paul 8.3
Huntsman 5.4
Perry 3.2
Bachmann 2.0
Santorum 0.9

Less than two weeks ago, we were at:

Romney 46.6
Gingrich 38.1
Paul 5.0
Huntsman 4.9
Perry 1.8
Bachmann 1.5
Cain 0.9
Santorum 0.7

So, Gingrich has been dropping, while Paul and Perry have been gaining.

[Yelnoc]

What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?

[The Mikado]

You guys haven't seen the Gingrich doodles yet? There is no way he is going to be the nominee. Clearly he is mentally ill.

Mentally ill?  He's the leader (possibly) of civilizing forces!

[Mr. Morden]

What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?

Four years ago at this time:

Democrats
Clinton 60.1
Obama 34.0
Edwards 4.5
Gore 2.8
Biden 0.3
Richardson 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.1
Romney 19.5
Huckabee 17.8
McCain 9.2
Paul 6.0
Thomspon 5.0
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4

[California8429]

So this debate tomorrow is really it until Iowa? Barring some gaffe on the campaign or some other amazing thing happens to thoroughly shake up the race.

[The Mikado]

What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?

Four years ago at this time:

Democrats
Clinton 60.1
Obama 34.0
Edwards 4.5
Gore 2.8
Biden 0.3
Richardson 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.1
Romney 19.5
Huckabee 17.8
McCain 9.2
Paul 6.0
Thomspon 5.0
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4

The GOP side of that shows how far ahead Atlas is over Intrade.  By December 2007, we had spotted the McCain resurrection and, IIRC, were all talking about the race as a tricorned contest between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.  Intrade hung on with Giuliani and his absurd Florida strategy far longer.

[© tweed]

someone went crazy and bought out a ton of Romney stock and shorted a bunch of Gingrich.  Romney traded at 60.5 on one recent transaction, 56.5 last; Gingrich at 20 last.  bid-ask on Gingrich suggests he should stabilize in the low to mid 20s.

[Politico]

someone went crazy and bought out a ton of Romney stock and shorted a bunch of Gingrich.  Romney traded at 60.5 on one recent transaction, 56.5 last; Gingrich at 20 last.  bid-ask on Gingrich suggests he should stabilize in the low to mid 20s.

Do they have inside information that something is going to be revealed tonight?

[Bull Moose Base]

Romney now 63, Gingrich 16.  The party's operation to destroy Newt is now in full swing.  Research was just published yesterday which showed that intrade #s can sway voters.  I'd guess this is intrade manipulation by Romney backers or Karl Rove.

[Yelnoc]

Romney now 63, Gingrich 16.  The party's operation to destroy Newt is now in full swing.  Research was just published yesterday which showed that intrade #s can sway voters.  I'd guess this is intrade manipulation by Romney backers or Karl Rove.

Either that, or something really juicy is going to be revealed at tonight's debate.

[Politico]

Romney now 63, Gingrich 16.  The party's operation to destroy Newt is now in full swing.  Research was just published yesterday which showed that intrade #s can sway voters.  I'd guess this is intrade manipulation by Romney backers or Karl Rove.

Either that, or something really juicy is going to be revealed at tonight's debate.

Yeah, I would bank on somebody knowing something we do not know (yet).

[© tweed]

Gingrich collapse.  Huntsman, Romney, Perry surge


Romney 60.3
Gingrich 15.1
Paul 8.7
Huntsman 8.6
Perry 4.2
Bachmann 1.9
Santorum 1.2


Paul now the favorite on last transaction to win Iowa:

Paul 32.8
Romney 30.9
Gingrich 25.0
Bachmann 5.6
Perry 5.0
Santorum 2.2
Huntsman 0.4

[Eraserhead]

The recent Iowa and New Hampshire polling is looking less solid for Gingrich. I'm not sure if it could explain that kind of drop though.

[Lief 🗽]

The recent Iowa and New Hampshire polling is looking less solid for Gingrich. I'm not sure if it could explain that kind of drop though.

Moneybags Mittens and his friends are no doubt selling off Newt and buying Mitt to feed into the Gingrich collapse/Romney comeback story.

[Likely Voter]

Maybe the market is just reacting rationally to the notion of Paul winning Iowa. If Newt loses IA, it is pretty much over for him

[Simfan34]

Mitt Romney 59.1
Newt Gingrich 17.8
Ron Paul 7.8
Jon Huntsman 7.3
Rick Perry 4.0
Michele Bachmann 1.6
Rick Santorum 1.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney surges, most others drop, especially Gingrich and Perry.

Romney 64.6
Gingrich 13.8
Paul 7.5
Huntsman 6.6
Perry 2.8
Bachmann 1.8
Santorum 0.7