The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Wonkish1]

Rumors flying that Romney has surged to 5.2 on the jmfcstrade.

Oh, how I wish jmfcst were here...

Indeed. No fair that he's gone now. And is Wonkish still here?

Who was Wonkish supporting?

Gingrich, I believe. He certainly argued that Gingrich did not engage in lobbying.

You believed wrong. And he didn't engage in lobbying.

[Wonkish1]

Is Wonkish still here?

Either he's busy paying for his Escalade or the Gingrich implosion has driven him deep into hiding. 

EDIT: Tory, if I remember correctly Wonkish said that he was undecided, but he had quite a Gingrich fetish. He claimed to have spent hundreds of hours watching Gingrich speeches and bragged that he'd managed to parlay several of Gingrich's ideas into a "lucrative" raise. And he was a vehement defender of the idea that Gingrich had a plausible shot at the nomination, arguing with me over that fact as early as late September.

Busy working! And you have a good memory. On speeches alone a good estimate would be between 80 and 150 hours(average speech time of about 30-45 minutes). Usually listened to them in the background of doing something else. Decent amount of repetition(but significantly less than other people).

Not a raise. When I was younger I did some marketing for a start up firm that is still around. During the interview process they asked for some ideas. I produced a list of them and got the job. One of them was partially gleaned from a speech Newt gave, I believe that was the one that clinched the deal because that was the one we moved on immediately after I got contracted. That marketing idea has since become a lot more common.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

So will you be able to accept Romney as the nominee? I seem to remember you being pretty anti-Romney.

[M]

Wait, jmfcst left? Why?

[Meeker]

Wait, jmfcst left? Why?

He was hired as a campaign advisor.

[Wonkish1]

So will you be able to accept Romney as the nominee? I seem to remember you being pretty anti-Romney.

I would be curious for you to quote me ever being anti-Romney.

He has a decent share of drawbacks just like the rest of them. I see Romney as very, very slight improvement on GWB and 100 times better than John McCain. I've met a lot of Romney-like people in my industry. I understand them. Doesn't mean I agree with them, but they don't bother me that much. They were the teachers pet types when they took their econ classes in college. So they are a mixture of Neo-Keynesianism and fiscal conservatism.

If you want to understand Mitt Romney look at his key economic adviser(in 08 and now), Greg Mankiw. Some of the stuff that has come out of Mankiw's mouth is absolutely atrocious, but its still a huge improvement to the crap that comes out of people like Krugman and Stiglitz.

[Yelnoc]

Wait, jmfcst left? Why?

He was hired as a campaign advisor.

Really?  To who?

[Wonkish1]

Wait, jmfcst left? Why?

He was hired as a campaign advisor.

Really?  To who?

LOL, I think it was family related. More time demands by his family if I'm not mistaken.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Ron Paul now in second place....

[Yelnoc]

Ron Paul now in second place....

Not anymore.  No Santorum surge either, which surprises me.

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich rebounds some more, and Santorum moves up into a tie with Bachmann for 6th place.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Romney, Huntsman

Romney 68.5
Gingrich 11.3
Paul 8.1
Huntsman 5.2
Perry 2.8
Bachmann 1.3
Santorum 1.3
J. Bush 0.6

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 45.5
Gingrich to win at least one primary or caucus: 34.9
Perry to win at least one primary or caucus: 11.0
Either Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul, or Bachmann to run for prez as a 3rd party candidate: 34.0

[© Tweed the Younger]

'run for prize'?  odd phraseology.

[Mr. Morden]

'run for prize'?  odd phraseology.

Don't know what I was thinking on that one.  Meant to type "prez", but I typed "prize".

[Oakvale]

That Palin/Trump/etc third-party candidacy thing seems quite overpriced.

[pikachu]

Doubt Perry will win any primaries/caucuses. None of those, except maybe Trump, will run 3rd party. I don't think anyone wants anymore Bachmann/Palin.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney hits 70, Paul back in 2nd place, and Santorum ahead of Bachmann.

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

Romney 70.0
Paul 8.4
Gingrich 8.2
Huntsman 5.0
Perry 2.5
Santorum 1.8
Bachmann 1.4

Winning party

Dems 51.9
GOP 45.6
other 2.6

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

I see Santorum is on a tear.

He has now passed Bachman.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney
Down: Paul, Huntsman

GOP nomination

Romney 72.9
Gingrich 7.7
Paul 6.9
Huntsman 4.0
Perry 2.6
Santorum 1.6
Bachmann 1.1

winning individual

Obama 52.0
Romney 36.3
Paul 3.8
Gingrich 3.0
Huntsman 2.0
Perry 1.0
Clinton 0.9
Santorum 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

GOP nomination

Romney 74.8
Paul 7.6
Gingrich 5.0
Huntsman 4.4
Perry 2.5
Santorum 2.1
Bachmann 0.8

Iowa

Paul 52.2
Romney 35.1
Gingrich 5.1
Santorum 5.0
Bachmann 1.6
Perry 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum passes Perry.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 73.7
Paul 7.7
Gingrich 5.4
Huntsman 3.9
Santorum 3.4
Perry 2.3
Bachmann 1.0

Iowa

Paul 55.1
Romney 32.4
Santorum 7.5
Gingrich 4.1
Bachmann 1.3
Perry 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

And now Romney breaks 75, and Santorum passes Huntsman for 4th place:

Romney 75.1
Paul 7.5
Gingrich 5.7
Santorum 3.6
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 1.6
Bachmann 0.9

[Keystone Phil]

And now Romney breaks 75, and Santorum passes Huntsman for 4th place:

Romney 75.1
Paul 7.5
Gingrich 5.7
Santorum 3.6
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 1.6
Bachmann 0.9

Rejoice! He will surely pass Gingrich by next Wednesday.

[Simfan34]

Nooooooooooooo!

[Mr. Morden]

Paul is crashing, and Gingrich passes him for 2nd place and Santorum passes him for 3rd place.

GOP nomination

Romney 77.8
Gingrich 4.9
Santorum 4.0
Paul 3.7
Huntsman 3.1
Perry 1.5
J. Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.6

Iowa

Romney 50.1
Paul 26.9
Santorum 20.3
Gingrich 1.0
Perry 0.6
Bachmann 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum was at 0.7 as recently as Dec. 18, so anyone investing in him then would have made some big $.

GOP nomination

Romney 79.0
Gingrich 5.3
Santorum 4.5
Paul 3.8
Huntsman 3.5
Perry 1.5
J. Bush 0.6
Bachmann 0.5

Iowa

Romney 45.0
Paul 28.2
Santorum 23.6
Gingrich 1.0

Four years ago today:

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 64.5
Obama 26.5
Edwards 7.0
Gore 1.8
Richardson 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Biden 0.1

Iowa
Obama 54.7
Clinton 28.0
Edwards 18.0
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 27.1
McCain 24.0
Romney 23.8
Huckabee 11.5
Paul 7.5
Thompson 2.9
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.4
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 58.1
Romney 40.0
McCain 0.3
Thompson 0.2
Field 4.0