The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

On InTrade.

Perfect candidate?  Not sure.  Daniels is an excellent fit for the 2012 GOP.  For electability, I still think Gary Johnson would have destroyed Obama.  Needed some help on the presentation but the dude is pretty awesome.

I was going to make some snide comment about not being able to string coherent sentences together, and then I realized who else was running.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Gingrich
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 64.0
Gingrich 26.0
Paul 3.2
Daniels 1.9
Santorum 1.6
J. Bush 1.4
Christie 0.5
Ryan 0.5

Florida

Gingrich 56.6
Romney 42.9

[Bull Moose Base]

It'd be funny if Santorum blew his remaining money running attack ads against Daniels this week.

[Zarn]

It'd be funny if Santorum blew his remaining money running attack ads against Daniels this week.

Don't be silly, Jeb might make a run on him. He needs to keep Jeb down.

[© tweed]

Daniels 1.8, Jeb 1.0, Christie 0.6, field 0.4, Rubio 0.2.  lol

[Mr. Morden]

Big Romney comeback.

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

GOP nomination

Romney 76.4
Gingrich 15.7
Paul 3.1
Santorum 1.4
Daniels 1.0
J. Bush 0.7
Christie 0.6
Ryan 0.3

Florida

Romney 67.2
Gingrich 35.9

Nevada

Romney 87.7
Gingrich 15.0
Paul 3.3

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 36.4

The following candidates to drop out by Feb. 5:

Santorum 41.0
Gingrich 1.9
Romney 1.6
Paul 0.5

[Torie]

Someone on intrade thinks the recent polls from Florida that Mitt likes best, at least reflect a trend back in his favor apparently.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney surge continues as Gingrich completely implodes.

GOP nomination

Romney 87.8
Gingrich 5.6
Paul 3.4
Santorum 1.7
Daniels 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Christie 0.4

Florida

Romney 91.8
Gingrich 8.8

Nevada

Romney 94.5
Gingrich 4.0
Paul 3.0

Colorado

Romney 85.0
Paul 10.0
Gingrich 8.9

Minnesota

Romney 83.0
Gingrich 15.0
Paul 5.0

[J. J.]

A 23 point gain in three days, while starting with a majority.  Wow.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 87.2
Gingrich 6.8
Paul 3.1
Santorum 1.4
J. Bush 0.6
Daniels 0.4

[Insula Dei]

Gingrich would be a good buy, provided you believe he will win some states on Super Tuesday.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Gingrich would be a good buy, provided you believe he will win some states on Super Tuesday.

Doubtful. Missouri, maybe, but that strikes me as more of Santorum's kinda state so no.

[Yelnoc]

Gingrich would be a good buy, provided you believe he will win some states on Super Tuesday.

Doubtful. Missouri, maybe, but that strikes me as more of Santorum's kinda state so no.

Gingrich isn't on the ballot in Missouri.

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich would be a good buy, provided you believe he will win some states on Super Tuesday.

Doubtful. Missouri, maybe, but that strikes me as more of Santorum's kinda state so no.

Gingrich isn't on the ballot in Missouri.

Only in the non-binding primary though.  Presumably he meant the caucus.

But neither the primary nor the caucus is on Super Tuesday, so I guess it doesn't make sense either way.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Florida update:

Up: Romney
Down: Gingrich

Romney 88.6
Gingrich 5.0
Paul 3.1
Santorum 1.4
J. Bush 0.4
Christie 0.3
Daniels 0.3

Four years ago:

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 55.0
Obama 46.0
Gore 1.0
Edwards 0.2

REPUBLICANS
McCain 90.5
Romney 6.2
Paul 1.6
Guiliani 1.0
Huckabee 0.6
Rice 0.3
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-Nevada caucus update:

GOP presidential nomination

Romney 88.0
Gingrich 4.8
Paul 2.8
Santorum 1.5
Daniels 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Christie 0.5

Nevada first place

Romney 99.5
Paul 0.6

Nevada second place

Gingrich 75.8
Paul 24.0

Colorado

Romney 92.5
Gingrich 4.0
Paul 2.6
Santoru 1.0

Minnesota

Romney 83.9
Gingrich 22.5
Santorum 5.0
Paul 2.0

GOP VP nomination

Rubio 24.2
Christie 19.5
Ryan 9.8
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.0
Portman 5.0
Santorum 3.7
Thune 3.6
Daniels 3.0

GOP presidential race to be settled at a brokered convention 8.0
Paul to win at least one primary or caucus 31.8
Gingrich to win a second primary or caucus 63.1

[Mr. Morden]

Romney gets a negative bounce from his completely expected win in Nevada.  Santorum price more than doubles in the last two days, as people start to realize that he might actually win something this week.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 86.3
Gingrich 4.4
Santorum 3.4
Paul 3.0
Daniels 0.7
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.5

Colorado

Romney 97.5
Santorum 2.3

Minnesota

Romney 67.1
Santorum 28.8
Gingrich 4.1
Paul 3.4

[Torie]

Paul's at 3% eh? LOL.

[Eraserhead]

Paul/Minnesota looks like a good buy.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum passes Gingrich for second place:

Romney 86.7
Santorum 4.3
Gingrich 4.1
Paul 2.5
J. Bush 0.8
Daniels 0.8
Christie 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Feb. 7 caucus update: More Rick-mentum.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 85.4
Santorum 6.5
Gingrich 4.0
Paul 2.6
J. Bush 0.5
Daniels 0.5
Christie 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Colorado

Romney 98.4
Santorum 1.5
Gingrich 0.2
Paul 0.1

Minnesota

Santorum 80.0
Romney 15.7
Paul 1.0
Gingrich 0.8

[argentarius]

Romney and Paul are undervalued in Minnesota.

[Oakvale]

Interesting to see Santorum finally overtaking Gingrich.

Obama's also over 60% to be re-elected on Intrade, which is the first time he's been there since the Bin Laden bounce wore off.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Feb. 7 caucus update:

Santorum surges like mad and Romney drops.  Santorum was at 0.6 just a couple of weeks ago, so anyone who put $ on him then would now have enough money to fund quite a few attack ads.  Dems now over 60% chance to win the general election.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 78.0
Santorum 12.1
Gingrich 3.5
Paul 2.4
Daniels 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Christie 0.3

winning party

Dems 60.5
GOP 39.1
other 0.9

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 35.2
GOP nomination to be decided by a brokered convention: 20.0

[© tweed]

-the total bids on winning party total 100.0.  a unique shorting opportunity

-I feel ask if winning party-Dem should have gained a few points last night