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+  Atlas Forum
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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings
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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 83573 times)
morgieb
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« Reply #1100 on: February 08, 2012, 07:27:58 am »
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How come Christie, Jeb and Daniels still trade at above 0 rankings?
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Roma Caput Mundi
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« Reply #1101 on: February 08, 2012, 07:35:32 am »
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Final pre-Feb. 7 caucus update: More Rick-mentum.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 85.4
Santorum 6.5
Gingrich 4.0
Paul 2.6
J. Bush 0.5
Daniels 0.5
Christie 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Colorado

Romney 98.4
Santorum 1.5
Gingrich 0.2
Paul 0.1

Minnesota

Santorum 80.0
Romney 15.7
Paul 1.0
Gingrich 0.8

Damn,Colorado...
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argentarius
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« Reply #1102 on: February 08, 2012, 02:46:12 pm »
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How come Christie, Jeb and Daniels still trade at above 0 rankings?
Brokered convention possibility is at 20%.
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tweed
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« Reply #1103 on: February 08, 2012, 04:00:30 pm »
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VIRGINIA.ROMNEY was last traded at 85.0.  huge buying opportunity.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #1104 on: February 08, 2012, 04:24:53 pm »
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Someone made bank from Colorado
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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #1105 on: February 08, 2012, 04:26:21 pm »
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VIRGINIA.ROMNEY was last traded at 85.0.  huge buying opportunity.

Is there any particular reason for the existence of the "Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Virginia Primary" market? And is there also a reason why it is traded above 0.0% (currently 5.5%)?

Speculation that Newt is gonna win Virginia through a massive write-in campaign or something?
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tweed
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« Reply #1106 on: February 08, 2012, 04:27:55 pm »
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I wouldn't be shocked if some Intraders didn't know about the VA ballot situation.  maybe also the possibility of a (very) late lawsuit or something.
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« Reply #1107 on: February 08, 2012, 08:46:33 pm »
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VIRGINIA.SANTORUM contract traded as high as 15 last night.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1108 on: February 10, 2012, 04:47:22 am »

Romney favored in all of the next four contests.  Romney to win Washington caucuses at 64.0 seems way too high to me, given how this past Tuesday's caucuses went.  If Romney's only at 76.4 to win Arizona and 70 to win Michigan, then he should certainly be below 50 to win Washington.

GOP nomination

Romney 79.5
Santorum 11.6
Gingrich 3.1
Paul 2.4
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.6

Maine

Romney 67.5
Paul 29.9
Santorum 2.7

Arizona

Romney 76.4
Santorum 21.7
Paul 2.2
Gingrich 1.8

Michigan

Romney 70.0
Santorum 30.0
Paul 1.2

Washington

Romney 64.0
Santorum 24.9
Paul 19.8
Gingrich 4.2
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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #1109 on: February 10, 2012, 05:08:02 am »
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VIRGINIA.SANTORUM contract traded as high as 15 last night.

He would probably do fairly well in the "Rick Santorum to be elected President of France in 2012" market too. Wink
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ℒief
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« Reply #1110 on: February 10, 2012, 12:22:18 pm »
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Either Paul or Santorum will win Washington. Romney doesn't have much of a chance.
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tweed
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« Reply #1111 on: February 10, 2012, 12:55:08 pm »
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Either Paul or Santorum will win Washington. Romney doesn't have much of a chance.

how would you know that?
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King
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« Reply #1112 on: February 10, 2012, 04:28:37 pm »
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Romney 79.5
Santorum 11.6
Gingrich 3.1
Paul 2.4
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.6

On Intrade in this race an 11.6 against Romney is like 40% odds of winning.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1113 on: February 10, 2012, 11:27:21 pm »

Final pre-Maine update: Santorum makes more big gains.

Up: Santorum, Paul
Down: Romney

GOP nominee

Romney 72.8
Santorum 17.8
Paul 3.6
Gingrich 3.4
J. Bush 0.9
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.6

Dem. nominee

Obama 97.0
Clinton 2.9
Biden 0.9

Maine

Romney 60.0
Paul 41.0

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 50.0
GOP race to be decided at a brokered convention: 19.9
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« Reply #1114 on: February 10, 2012, 11:51:23 pm »
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If I was old enough, I would have made a killing this cycle.
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« Reply #1115 on: February 11, 2012, 12:54:42 am »
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Things are certainly getting interesting.
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #1116 on: February 11, 2012, 01:13:41 am »
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If I was old enough, I would have made a killing this cycle.
Basically the entire Intrade strategy is bet against Romney when he is above 90%, and bet on the PPP poll when it comes out with a new development.
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Beet
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« Reply #1117 on: February 11, 2012, 03:53:13 am »
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Ok, I'm betting against WASHINGTON.ROMNEY.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1118 on: February 12, 2012, 03:58:57 am »

Post-Maine update: Romney comeback.

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum, Paul

Romney 78.8
Santorum 13.4
Gingrich 3.1
Paul 2.2
J. Bush 1.0
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.5

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 27.9
GOP nomination to be decided by a brokered convention: 19.0
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« Reply #1119 on: February 13, 2012, 03:45:59 pm »

Bush is all the way up to 1.9.  Will he soon pass Paul for fourth place?

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

Romney 75.5
Santorum 17.0
Gingrich 3.4
Paul 2.3
J. Bush 1.9
Christie 1.0
Daniels 0.4
Ryan 0.4
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« Reply #1120 on: February 16, 2012, 03:40:42 am »

Thune joins the list of non-candidates in the top 10.

Romney 71.0
Santorum 16.5
Gingrich 4.1
Paul 2.7
J. Bush 1.6
Thune 1.0
Daniels 0.8
Christie 0.7
Ryan 0.4
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« Reply #1121 on: February 18, 2012, 01:31:27 pm »

Bush now up to 3.0.

Up: Paul, Bush
Down: Romney

Romney 70.0
Santorum 16.4
Paul 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
J. Bush 3.0
Daniels 0.9
Christie 0.8
Ryan 0.5
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« Reply #1122 on: February 19, 2012, 07:39:21 am »

Bush now ties Paul for fourth place:

Romney 70.3
Santorum 14.1
Gingrich 4.0
J. Bush 3.0
Paul 3.0
Daniels 1.2
Christie 0.9
Ryan 0.6
Palin 0.5
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Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1123 on: February 19, 2012, 12:04:08 pm »
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These people are seriously brokering it up. I mean, really? Sarah?
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« Reply #1124 on: February 19, 2012, 12:05:20 pm »
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These people are seriously brokering it up. I mean, really? Sarah?

REP.NOM.2012.BROKERED is up to 33.0.  I don't think we got anywhere near that in 2008.
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