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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 70569 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1100 on: February 05, 2012, 03:58:31 pm »
Romney gets a negative bounce from his completely expected win in Nevada.  Santorum price more than doubles in the last two days, as people start to realize that he might actually win something this week.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 86.3
Gingrich 4.4
Santorum 3.4
Paul 3.0
Daniels 0.7
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.5

Colorado

Romney 97.5
Santorum 2.3

Minnesota

Romney 67.1
Santorum 28.8
Gingrich 4.1
Paul 3.4
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« Reply #1101 on: February 05, 2012, 05:50:18 pm »
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Paul's at 3% eh? LOL.
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« Reply #1102 on: February 06, 2012, 02:11:01 pm »
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Paul/Minnesota looks like a good buy.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1103 on: February 06, 2012, 03:02:59 pm »
Santorum passes Gingrich for second place:

Romney 86.7
Santorum 4.3
Gingrich 4.1
Paul 2.5
J. Bush 0.8
Daniels 0.8
Christie 0.5
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« Reply #1104 on: February 07, 2012, 04:58:43 am »
Final pre-Feb. 7 caucus update: More Rick-mentum.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 85.4
Santorum 6.5
Gingrich 4.0
Paul 2.6
J. Bush 0.5
Daniels 0.5
Christie 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Colorado

Romney 98.4
Santorum 1.5
Gingrich 0.2
Paul 0.1

Minnesota

Santorum 80.0
Romney 15.7
Paul 1.0
Gingrich 0.8
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« Reply #1105 on: February 07, 2012, 01:52:43 pm »
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Romney and Paul are undervalued in Minnesota.
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« Reply #1106 on: February 07, 2012, 02:18:54 pm »
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Interesting to see Santorum finally overtaking Gingrich.

Obama's also over 60% to be re-elected on Intrade, which is the first time he's been there since the Bin Laden bounce wore off.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1107 on: February 08, 2012, 03:30:34 am »
Post-Feb. 7 caucus update:

Santorum surges like mad and Romney drops.  Santorum was at 0.6 just a couple of weeks ago, so anyone who put $ on him then would now have enough money to fund quite a few attack ads.  Dems now over 60% chance to win the general election.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 78.0
Santorum 12.1
Gingrich 3.5
Paul 2.4
Daniels 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Christie 0.3

winning party

Dems 60.5
GOP 39.1
other 0.9

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 35.2
GOP nomination to be decided by a brokered convention: 20.0
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« Reply #1108 on: February 08, 2012, 03:50:58 am »
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-the total bids on winning party total 100.0.  a unique shorting opportunity

-I feel ask if winning party-Dem should have gained a few points last night
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« Reply #1109 on: February 08, 2012, 07:27:58 am »
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How come Christie, Jeb and Daniels still trade at above 0 rankings?
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Roma Caput Mundi
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« Reply #1110 on: February 08, 2012, 07:35:32 am »
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Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 07, 2012, 04:58:43 am
Final pre-Feb. 7 caucus update: More Rick-mentum.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 85.4
Santorum 6.5
Gingrich 4.0
Paul 2.6
J. Bush 0.5
Daniels 0.5
Christie 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Colorado

Romney 98.4
Santorum 1.5
Gingrich 0.2
Paul 0.1

Minnesota

Santorum 80.0
Romney 15.7
Paul 1.0
Gingrich 0.8

Damn,Colorado...
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argentarius
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« Reply #1111 on: February 08, 2012, 02:46:12 pm »
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Quote from: morgieb on February 08, 2012, 07:27:58 am
How come Christie, Jeb and Daniels still trade at above 0 rankings?
Brokered convention possibility is at 20%.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1112 on: February 08, 2012, 04:00:30 pm »
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VIRGINIA.ROMNEY was last traded at 85.0.  huge buying opportunity.
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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A-Bob
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« Reply #1113 on: February 08, 2012, 04:24:53 pm »
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Someone made bank from Colorado
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Old Europe
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« Reply #1114 on: February 08, 2012, 04:26:21 pm »
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Quote from: © to a universal proletarianization of the non-Mod community on February 08, 2012, 04:00:30 pm
VIRGINIA.ROMNEY was last traded at 85.0.  huge buying opportunity.

Is there any particular reason for the existence of the "Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Virginia Primary" market? And is there also a reason why it is traded above 0.0% (currently 5.5%)?

Speculation that Newt is gonna win Virginia through a massive write-in campaign or something?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1115 on: February 08, 2012, 04:27:55 pm »
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I wouldn't be shocked if some Intraders didn't know about the VA ballot situation.  maybe also the possibility of a (very) late lawsuit or something.
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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« Reply #1116 on: February 08, 2012, 08:46:33 pm »
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VIRGINIA.SANTORUM contract traded as high as 15 last night.
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Quote from: krazen1211 on January 17, 2013, 06:26:56 pm
15 rounds for the elites but 7 for the people. Interesting.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1117 on: February 10, 2012, 04:47:22 am »
Romney favored in all of the next four contests.  Romney to win Washington caucuses at 64.0 seems way too high to me, given how this past Tuesday's caucuses went.  If Romney's only at 76.4 to win Arizona and 70 to win Michigan, then he should certainly be below 50 to win Washington.

GOP nomination

Romney 79.5
Santorum 11.6
Gingrich 3.1
Paul 2.4
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.6

Maine

Romney 67.5
Paul 29.9
Santorum 2.7

Arizona

Romney 76.4
Santorum 21.7
Paul 2.2
Gingrich 1.8

Michigan

Romney 70.0
Santorum 30.0
Paul 1.2

Washington

Romney 64.0
Santorum 24.9
Paul 19.8
Gingrich 4.2
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Quote from: Lunar on March 20, 2011, 10:58:04 am
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Old Europe
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« Reply #1118 on: February 10, 2012, 05:08:02 am »
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Quote from: Beet on February 08, 2012, 08:46:33 pm
VIRGINIA.SANTORUM contract traded as high as 15 last night.

He would probably do fairly well in the "Rick Santorum to be elected President of France in 2012" market too. Wink
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Lief
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« Reply #1119 on: February 10, 2012, 12:22:18 pm »
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Either Paul or Santorum will win Washington. Romney doesn't have much of a chance.
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« Reply #1120 on: February 10, 2012, 12:55:08 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on February 10, 2012, 12:22:18 pm
Either Paul or Santorum will win Washington. Romney doesn't have much of a chance.

how would you know that?
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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King
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« Reply #1121 on: February 10, 2012, 04:28:37 pm »
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Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 10, 2012, 04:47:22 am
Romney 79.5
Santorum 11.6
Gingrich 3.1
Paul 2.4
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.6

On Intrade in this race an 11.6 against Romney is like 40% odds of winning.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1122 on: February 10, 2012, 11:27:21 pm »
Final pre-Maine update: Santorum makes more big gains.

Up: Santorum, Paul
Down: Romney

GOP nominee

Romney 72.8
Santorum 17.8
Paul 3.6
Gingrich 3.4
J. Bush 0.9
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.6

Dem. nominee

Obama 97.0
Clinton 2.9
Biden 0.9

Maine

Romney 60.0
Paul 41.0

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 50.0
GOP race to be decided at a brokered convention: 19.9
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Quote from: Lunar on March 20, 2011, 10:58:04 am
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« Reply #1123 on: February 10, 2012, 11:51:23 pm »
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If I was old enough, I would have made a killing this cycle.
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« Reply #1124 on: February 11, 2012, 12:54:42 am »
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Things are certainly getting interesting.
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