The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Eraserhead]

huge Santorum rebound... 10.0 on last transact to win the nomination

Can we call that the ARG bounce?

[© tweed]

you can call it what you like but I think more generally it's about the collection of polls not showing any quantifiable Romney surge post-debate, as was anticipated.  and also the enduring possibility that Santorum wins the statewide PV in Michigan, which MSM would probably build a whole narrative around that embarasses Romney.  "omg lost his home state still not embraced by the base omgg Super Tuesday!!"  then Ricky wins Washington on that first beautiful Saturday of March, and off we go into the big show.

a bit of a personal note now, I have the bug.  I'm really into this co-worker girl.  she's 21, from Indiana.  the last thing her grandparents told her before coming to Ithaca was "don't let the liberals get to you" or etc.  and now here she is, good friends w/ a Marxist-Leninist agitating fool like young Tweed.  so I invited her to a Super Tuesday party which I'll arrange.  I have an exam that Thursday but I'm so looking forward to this.  if I have it at my apartment I really should clean the bathroom.

[Eraserhead]

Reminds me that I should probably go about arranging some sort of Super Tuesday gathering.

[J. J.]

Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.

Might be?  He's already set the new gold standard.

I thing he has to pop out of the hole at least once more. 

[Politico]

Mitt is back to 82 in Michigan. New polls are starting to show a post-debate bounce for Mitt in Arizona and Michigan, the two states that were presumably paying the most attention.

[TheGlobalizer]

Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.

Might be?  He's already set the new gold standard.

I thing he has to pop out of the hole at least once more. 

Which hole?  Callista's?

[J. J.]

Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.

Might be?  He's already set the new gold standard.

I thing he has to pop out of the hole at least once more. 

Which hole?  Callista's?

Not familiar with Whack-a-Mole?

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 78.8
Santorum 7.6
Gingrich 4.6
Paul 3.4
J. Bush 1.9
Christie 0.9
Daniels 0.7
Huckabee 0.3

[TheGlobalizer]

Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.

Gingrich might be the Whack-a-Mole of this campaign.

Might be?  He's already set the new gold standard.

I thing he has to pop out of the hole at least once more. 

Which hole?  Callista's?

Not familiar with Whack-a-Mole?

It was supposed to be a joke...  :-P

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP presidential nomination

Romney 82.4
Santorum 5.9
Gingrich 3.8
Paul 3.0
J. Bush 2.8
Christie 0.9
Daniels 0.6

GOP VP nomination

Rubio 25.0
Christie 12.3
McDonnell 7.1
Martinez 6.5
Ryan 5.1
Rand Paul 5.0
Santorum 5.0
Thune 3.7
Portman 3.3
Daniels 3.0

[© tweed]

Romney got slaughtered today.  down over 9 points on last transaction.

[Eraserhead]

Michigan:
Romney 51
Santorum 49

Well, that's just awesome.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade is proving to be overly reactive to whatever the latest PPP results are.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Romney 74.0
Santorum 10.0
Gingrich 3.7
Paul 3.6
J. Bush 2.6
Christie 1.0
Daniels 0.7
Jindal 0.6
Ryan 0.6

Arizona

Romney 98.5
Santorum 2.0

Michigan

Romney 56.9
Santorum 44.0

Washington

Santorum 66.9
Romney 33.0
Paul 8.9

[© tweed]

Intrade is proving to be overly reactive to whatever the latest PPP results are.

haha, you should have been awake at 10pm Eastern.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP nomination

Romney 81.7
Santorum 6.8
Gingrich 3.4
Paul 2.8
J. Bush 2.0
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.4
Thune 0.3

Washington

Romney 54.0
Santorum 44.0
Paul 4.2
Gingrich 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Washington caucus update:

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP nomination

Romney 82.8
Santorum 5.8
Gingrich 3.6
Paul 2.7
J. Bush 1.6
Christie 0.4
Palin 0.4
Daniels 0.3
Huckabee 0.3

Washington Caucus

Romney 72.5
Santorum 24.4
Paul 5.0

Paul to win at least one primary or caucus: 32.0
GOP nomination decided by brokered convention: 16.0

Four years ago at this time:

Democratic nomination
Obama 72.5
Clinton 27.0
Gore 1.2

Republican nomination
McCain 96.1
Giuliani 1.3
Huckabee 1.0
Paul 1.0
Rice 0.6
Romney 0.5
Gingrich 0.2

Brokered Democratic convention: 20

So yeah, Jeb Bush is currently trading ahead of where Gore, or any other such fantasy candidate, was trading four years ago.  And brokered convention for the Dems four years ago was trading above brokered convention for the GOP right now.....even though the fact that there were only two candidates made a brokered convention nearly impossible for the Dems four years ago.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So yeah, Jeb Bush is currently trading ahead of where Gore, or any other such fantasy candidate, was trading four years ago.  And brokered convention for the Dems four years ago was trading above brokered convention for the GOP right now.....even though the fact that there were only two candidates made a brokered convention nearly impossible for the Dems four years ago.

You're forgetting that the Democrats had a bunch of unpledged superdelegates.  That opened up the possibility for someone to win a majority of the pledged delegates and still not be able to clinch a first ballot victory.  GOP rules result in a lot less unpledged delegates. making it far less likely for them to have a contested convention in a two candidate race.

[J. J.]

This thread should be stickied.

[Mr. Morden]

So yeah, Jeb Bush is currently trading ahead of where Gore, or any other such fantasy candidate, was trading four years ago.  And brokered convention for the Dems four years ago was trading above brokered convention for the GOP right now.....even though the fact that there were only two candidates made a brokered convention nearly impossible for the Dems four years ago.

You're forgetting that the Democrats had a bunch of unpledged superdelegates.  That opened up the possibility for someone to win a majority of the pledged delegates and still not be able to clinch a first ballot victory.  GOP rules result in a lot less unpledged delegates. making it far less likely for them to have a contested convention in a two candidate race.

I haven't forgotten that.  My point is, *why* would all those superdelegates *not* vote for either Clinton or Obama, the two candidates contesting the nomination?  That never made any sense to me.  It seemed clear enough that they would vote for one or the other, in which case, one of them would get a majority on the first ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

Washington caucus 1st place

Romney 90.8
Paul 6.9
Santorum 2.2

Washington caucus 2nd place

Santorum 52.5
Paul 43.1
Romney 5.3

[© tweed]

This thread should be stickied.

no, it should probably be closed as soon as Gingrich and Santorum drop out, and we can open a general election edition.

[J. J.]

This thread should be stickied.

no, it should probably be closed as soon as Gingrich and Santorum drop out, and we can open a general election edition.

Why couldn't we use this as the GE edition?

[Mr. Morden]

The market can't decide whether Paul or Santorum will get 2nd place in Washington.

Washington caucus 1st place

Romney 91.0
Paul 8.0
Santorum 4.6

Washington caucus 2nd place

Santorum 49.9
Paul 47.5
Romney 4.0

[© tweed]

This thread should be stickied.

no, it should probably be closed as soon as Gingrich and Santorum drop out, and we can open a general election edition.

Why couldn't we use this as the GE edition?

posterity prefers duality.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum implosion.  Gingrich now back in 2nd place.

GOP nomination

Romney 84.9
Gingrich 3.5
Santorum 3.1
Paul 2.4
J. Bush 2.3
Christie 0.4
Palin 0.4