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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 83559 times)
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1175 on: March 04, 2012, 12:08:46 am »
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Santorum is done after tonight. It's up to Newt to make Super Tuesday somewhat interesting.
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« Reply #1176 on: March 04, 2012, 12:44:11 am »

More volatility, as Santorum is back up to 2nd place, and Bush is edging Paul for 4th place.

Romney 83.3
Santorum 4.1
Gingrich 3.8
J. Bush 2.3
Paul 2.2
Christie 0.5
Palin 0.4
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« Reply #1177 on: March 06, 2012, 03:42:39 am »

Pre-Super Tuesday update: Gingrich now back up to 2nd place as Santorum sinks further.

GOP nominee

Romney 86.5
Gingrich 3.5
Santorum 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.8
Christie 0.3
Palin 0.3

Winning Party

Dems 60.2
GOP 39.0
other 0.9

What will the numbers look like in 24 hours?
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« Reply #1178 on: March 06, 2012, 09:27:24 am »
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Pre-Super Tuesday update: Gingrich now back up to 2nd place as Santorum sinks further.

GOP nominee

Romney 86.5
Gingrich 3.5
Santorum 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.8
Christie 0.3
Palin 0.3

Winning Party

Dems 60.2
GOP 39.0
other 0.9

What will the numbers look like in 24 hours?


If my predictions are in the right ballpark, I imagine they'll be pretty similar. Perhaps Romney will go even higher though.
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« Reply #1179 on: March 06, 2012, 09:57:18 am »
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Pre-Super Tuesday update: Gingrich now back up to 2nd place as Santorum sinks further.

GOP nominee

Romney 86.5
Gingrich 3.5
Santorum 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.8
Christie 0.3
Palin 0.3

Winning Party

Dems 60.2
GOP 39.0
other 0.9

What will the numbers look like in 24 hours?


When you post the numbers, do you use the bid or ask price?  Santorum's current bid is $0.17 (1.7%)
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« Reply #1180 on: March 07, 2012, 04:48:50 am »

Pre-Super Tuesday update: Gingrich now back up to 2nd place as Santorum sinks further.

GOP nominee

Romney 86.5
Gingrich 3.5
Santorum 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.8
Christie 0.3
Palin 0.3

Winning Party

Dems 60.2
GOP 39.0
other 0.9

What will the numbers look like in 24 hours?


When you post the numbers, do you use the bid or ask price?  Santorum's current bid is $0.17 (1.7%)

The relevant number is "last", not bid or ask.

And we're now at:

Romney 89.9
Santorum 3.1
Gingrich 2.1

So both Romney and Santorum have gained off of Super Tuesday, while Gingrich has lost ground.
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« Reply #1181 on: March 09, 2012, 03:31:24 am »

Santorum on a bit of a rebound.  Meanwhile, Bush now up to 3rd place, and Gingrich down to 5th place.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney

Romney 84.7
Santorum 4.3
J. Bush 2.1
Paul 1.7
Gingrich 1.5
Christie 0.6
Daniels 0.4

Gingrich to drop out of the race by the end of March: 40.0
Santorum to drop out of the race by the end of March: 10.0
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« Reply #1182 on: March 09, 2012, 04:11:28 pm »
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I think Santorum is way overvalued in Kansas... last traded at 92.6
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« Reply #1183 on: March 09, 2012, 07:56:09 pm »
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I think Santorum is way overvalued in Kansas... last traded at 92.6

Romney and Gingrich are not even bothering to campaign there.
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« Reply #1184 on: March 09, 2012, 08:37:46 pm »
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I think Santorum is way overvalued in Kansas... last traded at 92.6

Romney and Gingrich are not even bothering to campaign there.

Even so, weird things can happen. IIRC, Romney was trading at 97-99 to win Colorado. Some people made a killing off that.
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« Reply #1185 on: March 09, 2012, 08:56:35 pm »
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I think Santorum is way overvalued in Kansas... last traded at 92.6

Romney and Gingrich are not even bothering to campaign there.

why would Romney campaign there?  then if he loses it's a story.  I'd put Santorum at 80ish to win.
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« Reply #1186 on: March 10, 2012, 04:13:55 am »

Final pre-Kansas update:

Romney 85.9
Santorum 3.6
Gingrich 2.3
J. Bush 1.7
Paul 1.2
Christie 0.6
Palin 0.3
Ryan 0.3
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« Reply #1187 on: March 11, 2012, 03:50:43 am »

Post-Kansas/island Saturday update:

GOP nomination

Romney 86.0
Santorum 3.0
Gingrich 1.8
J. Bush 1.7
Paul 1.6
Christie 0.6
Palin 0.3
Rubio 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Alabama

Santorum 40.0
Gingrich 36.0
Romney 23.0

Hawaii

Romney 95.0
Santorum 5.9

Mississippi

Romney 40.5
Gingrich 36.0
Santorum 19.7

nomination to be decided by brokered convention: 11.6
Gingrich to drop out by end of March: 27.6
Santorum to drop out by end of March: 8.7
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« Reply #1188 on: March 11, 2012, 06:16:02 am »
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It's good to see intrade is as clueless about MS and AL as everyone else is.
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« Reply #1189 on: March 13, 2012, 04:36:06 am »

Final pre-Deep South Tuesday update: Gingrich now in 2nd place for the nomination, just ahead of Santorum.  The market now has Gingrich as the favorite in both AL and MS, though he's only very narrowly ahead of Romney in MS.  But Santorum is favored to come back and win the Missouri caucuses later this week.

GOP nomination

Romney 87.5
Gingrich 2.7
Santorum 2.3
J. Bush 2.0
Paul 1.7
Christie 0.9
Ryan 0.4

Alabama

Gingrich 67.4
Romney 17.6
Santorum 17.6

Hawaii

Romney 95.5
Paul 2.5
Santorum 2.0

Mississippi

Gingrich 50.1
Romney 46.0
Santorum 7.9

Missouri

Santorum 82.4
Romney 14.0
Gingrich 2.0
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« Reply #1190 on: March 13, 2012, 06:13:38 am »
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Wow, intrade is dumb. Really, Gingrich has a better chance at the nomination?
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« Reply #1191 on: March 13, 2012, 09:14:26 am »
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Wow, intrade is dumb. Really, Gingrich has a better chance at the nomination?

You think Gingrich and Santorum should switch out their respective 2.7% and 2.3% odds? Smiley
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« Reply #1192 on: March 14, 2012, 05:28:30 am »

Santorum surges, and Gingrich crashes down to 6th place, tied with Paul Ryan, and behind Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.  The market now thinks there's a 40% chance that Gingrich is out of the race by the end of the month.

Up: Santorum
Down: Romney, Bush, Gingrich

GOP nomination

Romney 85.6
Santorum 6.2
Paul 1.0
J. Bush 0.9
Christie 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Ryan 0.4

GOP race to be decided by brokered convention: 18.0

Gingrich to drop out by the end of March: 40.0
Santorum to drop out by the end of March: 9.0
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« Reply #1193 on: March 14, 2012, 12:59:01 pm »
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Something tells me this GOP race will be over on late may.
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« Reply #1194 on: March 16, 2012, 07:57:18 pm »

Santorum has lost nearly all the ground he gained off of his AL and MS wins.

Up: Romney
Down: Santorum

GOP nomination

Romney 88.9
Santorum 3.1
J. Bush 1.5
Paul 1.4
Christie 1.0
Gingrich 0.5

Illinois

Romney 85.1
Santorum 14.0
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« Reply #1195 on: March 17, 2012, 06:10:26 pm »
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Ron Paul and the people who aren't even running seem quite overvalued to me.
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« Reply #1196 on: March 18, 2012, 02:51:33 am »

Final pre-Puerto Rico update:

Romney 89.0
Santorum 2.6
J. Bush 1.5
Paul 1.3
Daniels 0.5
Gingrich 0.5
Christie 0.4
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« Reply #1197 on: March 20, 2012, 03:00:45 am »

Final pre-Illinois update.  If Romney wins particularly big tomorrow, I assume he'll make it up to 90.  How long will he stay there?  And will Bush pass Santorum for 2nd place?

GOP nomination

Romney 89.5
Santorum 2.2
J. Bush 2.1
Paul 1.4
Gingrich 0.7
Christie 0.4

Illinois

Romney 97.8
Santorum 3.0

Louisiana

Santorum 74.0
Romney 23.9
Gingrich 4.6

Next candidate to drop out of race for nomination

Gingrich 80.0
Santorum 20.0
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« Reply #1198 on: March 20, 2012, 05:11:25 am »
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I wonder if Romney can win LA, it should be more favorable terrain for him than AL or MS were...
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« Reply #1199 on: March 20, 2012, 08:46:21 am »
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I wonder if Romney can win LA, it should be more favorable terrain for him than AL or MS were...

I've been speculating about the "hat trick,"  PR, IL, LA. 

I think LA is possible.  For a southern state, it has a fairly large Catholic population, 28%; white Evangelicals are at 31%.
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