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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 84407 times)
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #1200 on: March 20, 2012, 06:34:02 pm »
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Not gonna happen.

Also, Bush is massively overvalued.
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« Reply #1201 on: March 21, 2012, 04:29:08 am »

Post-Illinois update: Romney's now above 90.  Is he there for good?  Santorum and Gingrich are given a combined probability of winning the GOP nomination that's equal to that of Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination.

Up: Romney
Down: Bush

GOP nomination

Romney 91.9
Santorum 1.5
Paul 1.2
J. Bush 1.1
Christie 0.5
Daniels 0.5
Gingrich 0.5

Dem. nomination

Obama 96.5
Clinton 2.0
Biden 1.5
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Roma Caput Mundi
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« Reply #1202 on: March 21, 2012, 04:55:59 am »
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What are the numbers for Louisiana?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1203 on: March 21, 2012, 05:38:58 am »

What are the numbers for Louisiana?

Louisiana

Santorum 89.8
Romney 9.1
Gingrich 2.0

Maryland

Romney 95.9
Santorum 4.0

Wisconsin

Santorum 49.7
Romney 49.5
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« Reply #1204 on: March 21, 2012, 02:19:53 pm »
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Santorum could not win Maryland in 100 million years.  Romney's about as good of a fit as you get in MD this side of John McCain.
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« Reply #1205 on: March 21, 2012, 05:24:14 pm »
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Wisconsin could be interesting.
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All In For KC
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« Reply #1206 on: March 21, 2012, 05:32:32 pm »
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It's time for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out. Romney's certainly going to win this.
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« Reply #1207 on: March 21, 2012, 08:09:02 pm »
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It's time for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out. Romney's certainly going to win this.

That would certainly kill the activity on this board for at least a couple of months.
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« Reply #1208 on: March 21, 2012, 08:20:16 pm »
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Wisconsin could be interesting.

Yes, I agree. Among other things, north of Milwaukee it has a dovish streak, with the Pubs sans Paul being hawks - with Rick the most hawkish at all (I don't bother spending any time on Newt anymore, and he won't be going to Wisconsin anyway, because it is not a proportional state (it's winner take all by CD), and so he can't hurt Mittens, but only help him). I will be looking for any echoes of that when the state votes.
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« Reply #1209 on: March 21, 2012, 08:21:48 pm »
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Wisconsin should act similar to Ohio. Starts with a big Santorum lead, Romney whittles it down by out-spending him, Mitt wins by a point or two the night of once the suburbs come in. Boring.
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« Reply #1210 on: March 22, 2012, 03:58:09 am »

Bush's endorsement of Romney causes Bush's share price to crumble.  Romney goes even higher.

Romney 92.6
Santorum 1.8
Paul 1.4
Gingrich 0.7
Palin 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Christie 0.4
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Breaking hearts and minds
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« Reply #1211 on: March 22, 2012, 11:54:12 am »
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Rick Santorum to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012: 1.5%

Hillary Clinton to be Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2012: 2.0%

*lol*
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« Reply #1212 on: March 24, 2012, 03:07:12 am »

Final pre-Louisiana update: Rubio's surged back up to 35 to be the veep nominee, with McDonnell now in 2nd (though a very distant second).

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 92.6
Santorum 1.7
Paul 1.4
J. Bush 0.5
Palin 0.5
Christie 0.4
Gingrich 0.4

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 35.0
McDonnell 9.0
Christie 8.0
Martinez 7.0
Portman 5.0
Santorum 4.3
Daniels 3.5
McMorris Rodgers 3.5
Ryan 3.0
Thune 3.0

Louisiana

Santorum 98.3
Romney 2.8
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« Reply #1213 on: March 25, 2012, 02:24:59 am »

Post-Louisiana update: Nothing really changes.

Romney 92.5
Santorum 1.7
Paul 1.4
Huckabee 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Gingrich 0.5
Palin 0.5
Christie 0.4
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« Reply #1214 on: March 28, 2012, 04:45:15 am »

Santorum's share price is now so dead that it's trading at half the price of Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

GOP presidential nomination

Romney 92.9
Paul 1.3
Santorum 1.0
J. Bush 0.7
Huckabee 0.5
Palin 0.4
Christie 0.3
Gingrich 0.3

GOP VP nomination

Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Dem. presidential nomination

Obama 96.5
Clinton 2.0
Biden 1.5

Dem. VP nomination

Biden 92.4
Clinton 7.0
Cuomo 0.5

Maryland

Romney 98.5
Santorum 1.9

Wisconsin

Romney 90.7
Santorum 9.7
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« Reply #1215 on: March 31, 2012, 07:32:51 pm »
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Just listing the people actually in the race for the nomination:

Romney    93.3% 

Santorum  1.0%

Paul          1.1%

Gingrich    0.3%



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« Reply #1216 on: March 31, 2012, 07:40:32 pm »
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GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1217 on: April 01, 2012, 05:09:59 am »

GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.

You really think Martinez has a better than 7% chance of being chosen?

Anyway, the latest update is:

GOP nomination

Romney 93.1
Santorum 1.4
Paul 1.3
J. Bush 0.6
Christie 0.4
Palin 0.4
Huckabee 0.3
Cantor 0.2
Daniels 0.2
Gingrich 0.2
Rubio 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Winning party

Dems 61.0
GOP 38.3
other 0.8

Four years ago at this time:

Democratic nomination
Obama 80.0
Clinton 17.3
Gore 4.8
Edwards 0.2

Republican nomination
McCain 94.1
Giuliani 1.7
Paul 1.5
Romney 1.4
Rice 0.5
Huckabee 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2

Winning party
Democratic 59.3
Republican 38.0
Field 0.7
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« Reply #1218 on: April 01, 2012, 11:46:48 am »
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GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.

You really think Martinez has a better than 7% chance of being chosen?

Yes but also I'm not that familiar with her so I'm just assuming she carries herself better than Palin.  Romney will pick his running mate probably just over 2 months before Election Day.  Who knows how the next 4+ months go but it seems to me there's a better than even chance that Romney will, like McCain 2008, realize he's likely headed for a loss without a game change, and similarly roll the dice with a nakedly political pick.  And I think her chances, like McDonnell's, are dragged down by unrealistically high prices for alternatives.  No way will Romney pick Ryan.  Christie also seems very inflated, no pun intended.  Santorum, only if you consider a 3.5 chance (or slightly more) chance of a brokered convention.  0% Romney runs with him otherwise.
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« Reply #1219 on: April 02, 2012, 10:28:20 pm »
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CFTC bans election-based derivatives contracts

Nadex, a Chicago-based electronic exchange, had sought to offer contracts based on results for the elections for the US presidency, the Senate and House of Representatives. The CFTC said that the derivatives “involved gaming and are contrary to public interest”, and asked that Nadex withdraw the self-certification.
...
There has never been a regulated market for investors to purchase futures contracts on political events. Intrade, a market dedicated to unconventional predictions, such as whether France will lose its triple A rating before a certain time, or which movies will have the biggest box office return, currently offers political futures wagers, but is not federally regulated.
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« Reply #1220 on: April 03, 2012, 05:14:30 am »

Final pre-Maryland/Wisconsin update: Santorum is now rated as less likely to win the GOP nomination than both Biden and Clinton are to win the Democratic nomination.

GOP nomination

Romney 93.5
Paul 1.2
Santorum 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Christie 0.4
Gingrich 0.4

Maryland

Romney 99.8
Santorum 0.2

Wisconsin

Romney 93.5
Santorum 7.4

Dem. nomination

Obama 97.0
Biden 1.5
Clinton 1.0
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« Reply #1221 on: April 03, 2012, 11:46:40 am »
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GOP VP nomination
Rubio 32.0
Christie 9.6
McDonnell 8.5
Martinez 6.8
Ryan 6.1
Portman 4.3
Daniels 3.9
Thune 3.6
Santorum 3.5
Jindal 2.6

Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Portman, Santorum all way too high (even if Rubio is frontrunner).  McDonnell, Martinez seem too low.

You really think Martinez has a better than 7% chance of being chosen?

Yes but also I'm not that familiar with her so I'm just assuming she carries herself better than Palin.  Romney will pick his running mate probably just over 2 months before Election Day.  Who knows how the next 4+ months go but it seems to me there's a better than even chance that Romney will, like McCain 2008, realize he's likely headed for a loss without a game change, and similarly roll the dice with a nakedly political pick.  And I think her chances, like McDonnell's, are dragged down by unrealistically high prices for alternatives.  No way will Romney pick Ryan.  Christie also seems very inflated, no pun intended.  Santorum, only if you consider a 3.5 chance (or slightly more) chance of a brokered convention.  0% Romney runs with him otherwise.

Martinez would carry herself better than Palin, but I don't think she wants in.  I can see her doing a second term as governor, wrapping up in 2018 and running in 2020 for the prez spot.  I think 7% is too high but token woman / token Hispanic keeps her above the de minimis level.

FWIW, I haven't heard her speak but she's apparently a very impressive speaker.

Rubio, Christie, and McDonnell are too high.  Daniels and Jindal are probably too low.  DeMint and Fortuno should be in the discussion.
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« Reply #1222 on: April 06, 2012, 03:27:06 am »

Post-WI/MD update: Romney now above 95 to win the GOP nomination, almost as high as Obama is to win the Democratic nomination.


GOP nomination

Romney 95.7
Paul 0.8
Santorum 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Huckabee 0.3
Palin 0.3
Christie 0.2
Daniels 0.2
Gingrich 0.2
Rubio 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Democratic nomination

Obama 97.5
Biden 1.1
Clinton 1.0

Winning individual

Obama 60.6
Romney 37.0
Clinton 0.9
Biden 0.3
Paul 0.3
Santorum 0.2

Pennsylvania

Romney 81.2
Santorum 18.5
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