The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[© tweed]

I thought Patraeus said he wasn't running.

it's just a case of one overanxious buyer distorting the market a bit early in the low-volume game.  the bid/ask is far below 19.8 on Petraeus.

[© tweed]

Good to see Romney polling so well. I will support him in 2012.

it's not a poll

[© tweed]

Romney is really undervalued.

oh burn it down

maybe he is undervalued in the sense that he is likely to be traded above 27 at some point but more than that is just card tricks

[© tweed]

Palin to run up to 1:3 on your money .. worth a short? thoughts from the residents?

[© tweed]

Perry looks like a bit of a bubble... remember Edwards flirted with 20 at some point in 2007 and Gore had his days upon months in the mid-teens way later than should have been.

[© tweed]

Iowa and NH (guess which are which)


Bachmann 47.0
Romney 12.9
Perry 12.0
Pawlenty 7.0
(other) 5.0
Paul 4.5
Palin 3.9
Cain 1.5
Huntsman 0.7
Gingrich 0.7
Santorum 0.6


Romney 60.0
Huntsman 15.1
(other) 7.9
Perry 7.5
Bachmann 6.9
Pawlenty 3.0
Palin 2.0
Santorum, Gingrich, Cain no bids
Paul with a 3.0 bid but no transactions

[© tweed]

shorting Bachmann in Iowa seems like the best bet agreed?  or reverse-shorting (buying Romney, Perry, Pawlenty, Palin, and Huntsman is 'cheaper' as you're not paying for Paul, Cain, Gingrich)

[© tweed]

the straw poll has a screwy history (Robertson '87).  there's no approaching-objective way to predict it so I wouldn't want my money wrapped up in it.

[© tweed]

Romney + Huntsman + Bachmann paying between 1:1 and 3:2?  sounds like a "buying opportunity", until I start thinking about it just a bit more.

[© tweed]

if he gets out of the early states at least neck and neck in terms of media crowning and whatnot (which is likely, because the advertisers that fund the cable programs are sure to prefer Romney to Perry or Bachmann or Palin), he can romp in the big delegate states FL, NY, NJ, CA.

[© tweed]

Romney will win between 2-12 states, no more...in fact Perry will win more delegates in '12 than McCain did in '08

so go bet on it.

[© tweed]

I'm not attempting to go through the painstaking process of combating your massive ego, jmf, I'm just kindly suggesting that if you so believe in your own opinion there are opportunities out there to make 3x on your money.

[© tweed]

have you ever heard of / read the works of this dude?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randall_Balmer

[© tweed]

great month for W Mitt.  up 25%.

[© tweed]

Romney / Perry now 45.0 / 27.1

[© tweed]

GOP bid/ask both above 50 now too.  the seas have changed.

[© tweed]

Intrade doesn't really seem to take Cain seriously.

jmfcst's don't do Intrade.

good, because your massive pushing of Perry stock about a month ago is worth between 50 and 60 cents on the dollar.

[© tweed]

he also explicitly said to short Romney at 30, and the value of that stock has since doubled.

[© tweed]

and also this:

Aside from a major scandal or a new entry into the race, here are the odds on winning the GOP nomination:

Perry: 95%
Paul: 5% (if the economy goes to hell in a handbasket, people might be desperate enough to have a revolution against government)
everyone else: 0%

[© tweed]

oh, so it's dis the jmfcst time....well, let's review the facts...It's fact time...Fact time for jmfcst...

when you claim to have a direct line to God and a monopoly on certainty, you will gain yourself some rivals, and they will much enjoy pointing it out when fate proves you wrong.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

jmfcst dumps Perry...

well, if Perry doesnt perform well tonight in the debate...his reign as frontrunner will be short lived.

Perry is proving he is an empty suit.  we need someone like jmfcst, someone willing to spend money on the right things that will provide career private sector jobs

Perry is showing why he basically stayed out of sight in Austin the last 12 years, so much so that Texans like me hardly heard a word about him...not only is no one home, the lights aren't even on.

conservatives dont have a viable canidate....so I think there is STILL time for someone else, other than Palin, to enter the race

[/quote]

that basically places you 'in' on him at his peak and 'out' as his value started to crash.  if you dumped on the 22nd you probably would have lost minimal money, maybe 5-10%.  by Oct 1 he had lost 40-50% of his value.  

[© tweed]

when you claim to have a direct line to God and a monopoly on certainty, you will gain yourself some rivals, and they will much enjoy pointing it out when fate proves you wrong.

I have NEVER claimed that God gave me any info on any candidate.  And you've been here long enough to know that, so stop lying about my testimony.

was not what I said and was not implied.  I do see points of connection between your existential certainty and your GOP primary predictive certainty, however: they're a fundamental constituent part of a coherent persona.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

as I said, someone strictly heeding your advice on 2012.REP.NOM.PERRY would have "probably lost minimal money".  minimal the operative word.  the problem is someone heeding your advice on 2012.REP.NOM.ROMNEY would be in a serious hole right about now, no matter the specific buying date.

[© tweed]

stepping in for Morden, one time only.  I'm a substitute but not a replacement. 

wealth transfer direct from Perry to Romney post-debate, who now approaches 2/3.  Giuliani falls off radar.

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 65.2
Perry 12.5
Cain 9.0
Huntsman 2.9
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Bachmann 1.1
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.5


in the second slot, Iowa caucuses.

Romney 32.0
Cain 25.0
Perry 20.0
Bachmann 7.0
Paul 6.5

[© tweed]

returning to my default persona now.  here are the IEM numbers


general election

Republican 51.7
Democratic 48.1


GOP nomination

Romney 67.2
Perry 12.5
Bachmann 1.4
Paul 1.0
Rest of Field 15.6 [mainly Cain-driven]

[© tweed]

there's another debate tonight?  Christ

[© tweed]

you have to be 105-110% as intelligent as the market if you include fees.  maybe more depending on how much you have to pay to get your money in/out.  there's not much else to say.  if you think you are then go for it.