The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Torie]

I wonder when the two Mormons will start tearing each other to shreds. There is not room for both of them.

[Torie]

Romney will crush Perry in CA. Just sayin'. 

[Torie]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

Cain withdrew his comments about Perry and the rock word on Hannity, after he had more time to learn "the facts."  He said he "knows" that Perry has no animus to black people.  He's not dumb. He is smart enough not to double down like Perry. In a word, he's smarter than Perry. Who knew? 

[Torie]

Romney over 57%?  Everyone knows I'm bullish on Romney, but that's a bit too high.

It really is basically over Mikado. When Cain/Newt/Perry gets the nomination, you can laugh at me!  But yes, it's basically over. Mittens is cheap!  You may find this hard to believe, but Pubbies do really want an effective POTUS (again hard as it is to believe, a lot of Pubbies are worried about how to make ends meet and finding or keeping a job too, so this is serious business), who along the way, will give Obama some much needed rest.

Your turn. 

[Torie]

jmfcst, the parallels between your words and Perry's being thrown in your faces is eerie.  You both would be wiser to own up to guessing wrong... Friendly advice from the wisest, best predictor on the board (who back in June told The Cainmentum Formerly Known As Yelnoc he was crazy for thinking Cain would still be in contention for anything come Fall.)

the ONLY thing I guessed wrong about was Perry's debate performance, which cost him the nomination...which, I am glad because I always stated he was a tool.

I, of course, predicted these terrible performances, probably because as noted on that IQ thread, I am a genius. See, the dots connect together seamlessly yet again! 

[Torie]

Romney 69.8
Perry 11.9
Cain 9.5
Gingrich 2.0

Romney and Perry are too high (Perry should be 0.5), and Cain and Newt are too low....this would be how I handicap the race:

Cain 40%
Newt 25%
some-other-antiRomney-not-yet-in-the-race 20%
Romney 15%

Mittens has but a 15% chance eh?  Yes, you should short him!  Mortgage the house.

[Torie]

Cain 40%
Newt 25%
some-other-antiRomney-not-yet-in-the-race 20%
Romney 15%

Mittens has but a 15% chance eh?  Yes, you should short him!  Mortgage the house.

so, if Cain or Newt don't both implode (and Newt won't), you think Romney wins a two man contest between either Romney-vs-Cain or Romney-vs-Newt?

Yes, of course.  He is the only one who is a plausible candidate, that can be taken seriously by the voters who are in real play.

[Torie]

Rumors flying that Romney has surged to 5.2 on the jmfcstrade.

Oh, how I wish jmfcst were here...

Indeed. No fair that he's gone now. And is Wonkish still here?

Who was Wonkish supporting?

[Torie]

Someone on intrade thinks the recent polls from Florida that Mitt likes best, at least reflect a trend back in his favor apparently.

[Torie]

Paul's at 3% eh? LOL.

[Torie]

Wow, intrade is dumb. Really, Gingrich has a better chance at the nomination?

You think Gingrich and Santorum should switch out their respective 2.7% and 2.3% odds?

[Torie]

Wisconsin could be interesting.

Yes, I agree. Among other things, north of Milwaukee it has a dovish streak, with the Pubs sans Paul being hawks - with Rick the most hawkish at all (I don't bother spending any time on Newt anymore, and he won't be going to Wisconsin anyway, because it is not a proportional state (it's winner take all by CD), and so he can't hurt Mittens, but only help him). I will be looking for any echoes of that when the state votes.