The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings (user search)
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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 201630 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: April 06, 2009, 12:52:40 PM »
So there are some people who still think Obama is going to be offed, apparently.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2010, 02:23:37 AM »
Romney is really undervalued.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2011, 05:16:21 AM »
We really need some solid Iowa polling. Who the hell knows what's happening there now?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2011, 04:46:40 AM »
Wow, the last few pages of this have been fantastic!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2011, 08:04:56 PM »
Intrade is pretty racist, it seems.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2011, 04:36:36 AM »
The Cain number is absolutely ridiculous.

Huntsman is basically right next to him. Huntsman... really?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2011, 04:44:44 AM »
Eh, put me in the camp that thinks Gingrich would be a nightmare for the GOP in the general. Although he'd obviously perform a lot better than Cain would (who wouldn't?).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2011, 05:59:57 PM »
Quote from: jmfcst on November 29, 2011, 01:00:39 PM
current odds of winning GOP nomination:

Revised rankings 11/29/11

Newt          65%
Huntsman  15%
late entry   10%
Romney       5%
Perry           3%
Santorum    1.0%
Paul            0.8%
Bachmann   0.1%
Cain            0.1%




What's the Huntsman boner all about?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2011, 03:54:18 PM »
Romney is going to experience a major NH drop if he loses badly in Iowa/Gingrich wins.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2011, 06:15:56 PM »
The recent Iowa and New Hampshire polling is looking less solid for Gingrich. I'm not sure if it could explain that kind of drop though.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2011, 01:46:59 AM »
Wow.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2011, 04:20:24 PM »

Indeed. No fair that he's gone now. And is Wonkish still here?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2011, 05:15:29 PM »
So will you be able to accept Romney as the nominee? I seem to remember you being pretty anti-Romney.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2012, 02:51:15 PM »
Gingrich and Paul are undervalued in South Carolina.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2012, 05:50:31 AM »
Prediction: Romney falls below 55 if he loses FL (below 50 if he loses big). Gingrich, Daniels, Christie have big surges.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2012, 02:11:01 PM »
Paul/Minnesota looks like a good buy.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2012, 12:54:42 AM »
Things are certainly getting interesting.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2012, 05:24:02 AM »
Epic. Gingrich should be in second again soon.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2012, 08:06:03 AM »
Quote from: © Boss Tweed on February 24, 2012, 07:52:04 AM
huge Santorum rebound... 10.0 on last transact to win the nomination

Can we call that the ARG bounce?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2012, 08:30:33 AM »
Reminds me that I should probably go about arranging some sort of Super Tuesday gathering.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2012, 03:11:15 AM »
Michigan:
Romney 51
Santorum 49

Well, that's just awesome.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2012, 12:08:46 AM »
Santorum is done after tonight. It's up to Newt to make Super Tuesday somewhat interesting.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2012, 09:27:24 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2012, 03:42:39 AM
Pre-Super Tuesday update: Gingrich now back up to 2nd place as Santorum sinks further.

GOP nominee

Romney 86.5
Gingrich 3.5
Santorum 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.8
Christie 0.3
Palin 0.3

Winning Party

Dems 60.2
GOP 39.0
other 0.9

What will the numbers look like in 24 hours?


If my predictions are in the right ballpark, I imagine they'll be pretty similar. Perhaps Romney will go even higher though.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2012, 06:16:02 AM »
It's good to see intrade is as clueless about MS and AL as everyone else is.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2012, 05:11:25 AM »
I wonder if Romney can win LA, it should be more favorable terrain for him than AL or MS were...
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