The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[tmthforu94]

I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.

40% of America love Palin. Whether they will still love her in 3 years, I don't know. I like her a lot, but I won't vote for her, because I know, that unless Obama's approval ratings are below 40%, she will lose. I would feel much more comfortable voting for Crist, even though we don't agree on some issues.

[tmthforu94]

Pawlenty now up to 2nd place:

Romney 27.1
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Palin 12.0
Sanford 11.0

Ahh, Huckabee has slightly gone down. I'm suprised that Palin is just barely beating Sanford, and Mitt Romney is really starting to pull away from the pack.

[tmthforu94]

Romney extends his lead, and there's a huge Palin rally.  Dumb.  Even if you still think Palin's going to run, I would think any sane reading of events should have her odds diminished since last week:

Romney 33.8
Jindal 16.0
Gingrich 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Palin 13.9
Thune 10.0

It's how markets work. It was a correction. I think Thune has more of a chance at this point however.

Thune doesn't even really have much name recognition. I think, if he decides to run and get in the spotlight, he will turn some heads. Definitely a contender for Iowa, Wyoming, and Nevada.

[tmthforu94]

Palin has moved into the lead, ending Romney's long run in the #1 spot:

Palin 26.5
Romney 25.2
Pawlenty 22.5
Huckabee 14.2
Thune 14.0
Gingrich 10.2

Palin jumped up because of Hoffman thing?  I don't get Palin leading, Pawlenty being so close to the lead, Huckabee being so far back/barely ahead of Thune.  In short, what?

Keep in mind, a couple people could put someone like Bachmann in #1 if they felt like it.

[tmthforu94]

Pawlenty has little chance at winning the nomination. He has had a decent record as Governor, and his politics appear ideal for the Republican party. But once he gets out campaigning, I think he's toast. He might break 20% in Iowa, and will of course win Minnesota, and possibly a few other Midwest states. But his chances overall aren't great.
After doing some thinking, I think that if Palin runs, which I'm not thinking she will, she will be the nominee. Many Republicans are drawn to her, and once she gets out there campaigning again, they will be drawn to her again. I'd be lying if I told you there was no chance I would ever vote for her in the primaries.

[tmthforu94]

I'd be investing a lot in Romney right now.

[tmthforu94]

Palin has moved into the lead, ending Romney's long run in the #1 spot:

Palin 26.5
Romney 25.2
Pawlenty 22.5
Huckabee 14.2
Thune 14.0
Gingrich 10.2

[tmthforu94]

Good lord, this is incredible. Even though I support Romney, I'd still almost want to buy Perry stocks, as he's very low for someone leading nationwide and in Iowa/South Carolina/Florida.

[tmthforu94]

I would've bought Perry 2 weeks ago, but the media is beginning to write him off and my grandfather, loyal conservative and tea partier, told me after Thursday's debate that Romney is now his man because Perry looks clueless.

If he changed his mind, I expect many, many others have as well.

I was talking to a parent of one of my friends the other night. She's extremely conservative, a big Tea Partier. She said that she's never been a big fan of Romney because of his healthcare plan in Massachusetts, but after hearing his argument that it was a state issue, she's starting to like him. I think we're seeing this across America - the more people hear Perry, the more they dislike him. The more people here Romney at these debates, the more they like him.

Heck, my parents, people who actually know Perry, are back to supporting Romney, because the understand that the most important thing is Obama being a one term President, and Romney is easily our best shot at taking him down.

[tmthforu94]

I'd be open to Daniels as a compromise candidate.

[tmthforu94]

I would have made a lot of money this cycle if I knew how to use Intrade.

[tmthforu94]

It's time for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out. Romney's certainly going to win this.