The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Poundingtherock]

Palin has taken the lead on Intrade.

[Poundingtherock]

I expect after this Saturday evening that Palin will hold the lead until Romney releases his book.

I expect Romney's book to tank (meaning it won't make the top 10 or if it does, the NY Times will give him a dagger symbol, indicating bulk sales)

[Poundingtherock]

I disagree that she is a better known figure nationally.

There's a distinction between name ID and favorability/unfavorability rankings.

More people have an opinion about Palin but I would suspect they aren't far apart in terms of name ID (which may or may not be a bad thing for Romney as I suspect that the Republicans who are undecided about him break against him 2-to-1).

[Poundingtherock]

Morden,

I think she takes the lead again after Saturday nigt (assuming she performs well with her nationally televised Tea Party Convention speech).

[Poundingtherock]

Palin 22.5
Romney 21.2
Thune 11
Pawlenty 8

[Poundingtherock]

Most of the reviews of her Tea Party speech were good, even from typical critics.

[Poundingtherock]

And by the way, I hope you understand the distinction between using notes and a teleprompter.

You are pretty close to speaking off the cuff when you are using notes while you are speaking word for word from what shows up on the screen when using a teleprompter.

If she had performed the way she did with a teleprompter, then I don't think it would have been successful.

But the way she performed without one was quite strong.

[Poundingtherock]

I'd also point out that she was very strong with Chris Wallace (who scored the biggest ratings he's had in six years in the DC region).

Nearly everyone agrees that Wallace pushed her as hard as anyone would have pushed her.

[Poundingtherock]

I'd expect Palin to take the "intrade" lead after this week.  She's got the primetime speech at the SRLC and the huge rally this week with Bachmann and Pawlenty.

[Poundingtherock]

Palin 26.6
Romney 26
Thune 16.6

[Poundingtherock]

Well, the traders continue to see a two-way matchup.

Palin 27
Romney 26.5

Palin running is at 63.3.

[Poundingtherock]

Romney is dramatically overpriced for a guy with such low favorables with Republicans.  Thune is as well

I'd agree that Pawlenty is underpriced a little bit.  But I think Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Daniels are about right.

[Poundingtherock]

Palin at 28.5.

[Poundingtherock]

But the benefit from winning outweighs the stigma of a loss.

A win in the GOP primary seems likely according to some polls (less likely according to others) and that alone is probably worth it.

A victory over Barack Obama of course gets her to the White House and that opens up even more possibilities.

The person with the best favorables among Republicans nearly always wins the primaries.  It's no contest with her, Gingrich, and Romney in that arena.

[Poundingtherock]

Look at the Pew poll:

http://people-press.org/reports/questionnaires/459.pdf

66% thought she did an excellent or good job in her debate with Biden.

In fact, her "excellent" rating was higher than Obama's in his debate.

Romney was pretty easily outclassed in the debates in 2008, so I don't see how he would do well in a debate with Palin.

Though Gingrich is clearly a masterful debater.

[Poundingtherock]

I wonder if Johnson can get hot in New Hampshire.  Perhaps Palin, Pawlenty, and co. should tell all their supporter to all vote for Johnson in New Hampshire so he can gut out a win and end the Romney campaign.

[Poundingtherock]

At what point will Romney's Intrade people abandon ship?

If he's not up by at least 5 in the upcoming Florida primary poll with both Huckabee and Palin in the race, his candidacy as a duck.

[Poundingtherock]

Sorry Joe, the shooter is clearly a Democrat Party supporter.

That's why the media isn't providing very much in terms of information because this is a Democrat on Democrat crime.  It doesn't fit the narrative that the Democrat Party wanted.

[Poundingtherock]

Joe,

There's something called facts.

You guys in the Democrat Party are lucky this didn't happen on a weekday because the Fox gang would be out there right now showing that this is Democrat-on-Democrat violence.

http://twitter.com/caitieparker/status/23853016876589057

Maybe we'll show you guys some compassion but ask yourself why your friends in the Democrat Party and the media got so quiet when details started to emerge about the shooter.  Shouldn't we be getting profiles about this guy?  Ask yourself why you aren't getting such profiles.

Trust me man...you don't want there to be any optics with this one.  You cannot win them.  Look at how shaky Obama was today with his statement.   He was stuttering with his head buried in his notes.  Wouldn't he be more confident if he had the goods on us?