The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

Mitch/Brown anybody?

[Yelnoc]

Why would Jeb Bush even be on the charts?

[Yelnoc]

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

I wonder what caused Daniels and Pence to both make a 5 point jump?

[Yelnoc]

Romney 28.5
Palin 18.5
Thune 16.1
Pawlenty 10.5
Daniels 8.3
Gingrich 8.0
Huckabee 6.9
Jeb Bush 5.1
Pence 5.0
Paul 4.6
Jindal 3.9
Barbour 2.9
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.0
others under 2.0

I'm liking the Daniels jump to fifth.  I don't know why anyone would by Jeb Bush but besides that this seems like a pretty good list.

From August 2006:

About a month since we last posted the numbers, net change from 7/25 in ()

Democrats

Clinton 40.5 (-1.9)
Warner 18.5 (-0.5)
Gore 15.0 (+0.2)
Edwards 9.0 (0)
Feingold 3.6 (+1.3)
Kerry 3.3 (0)
Obama 2.2 (+0.2)
Bayh 2.2 (+ ~0.4)
Others under 2.0

Republicans

McCain 38.0 (-0.4)
Giuliani 16.0 (+1.5)
Romney 13.2 (+2.8 )
Allen 13.0 (-3.5)
Rice 5.9 (+0.9)
Gingrich 3.2 (+0.5)
Huckabee 2.2 (-0.4)
Others under 2.0

Well, they called the Republican last time 'round, though Obama below Kerry is kind of surprising.  Good reminder that we usually screw up when trying to see the future.

[Yelnoc]

Also, while Intrade doesn't offer "winning individual" contracts yet, they are offered at Betfair:

http://www.betfair.com/

Current Betfair probabilities for the following people being elected president in 2012:

Obama 48
Romney 10
Palin 6
Thune 5
Pawlenty 4
Hillary Clinton 3
Daniels 3
Gingrich 3
Huckabee 3

That's funny.

I guess someone thinks she'll challenge and beat Obama in the Democratic primary.

Thune is doing very well, Gingrich not so much.

Maybe Thune/Barbour 2012?

[Yelnoc]

Hurrah for Daniels at 10!

Oh and congrats on the wedding engagement.

[Yelnoc]

Oh and congrats on the wedding engagement.

Uh....there is no wedding engagement.  That was a spoof of BushOK's "Update" thread. 

What?

[Yelnoc]

What I want to know is who is buying Jeb  Bush shares?  His stock went up by .6.

[Yelnoc]

Is there a website that you are getting these numbers from?

[Yelnoc]

www.intrade.com

I knew it was on the intrade site but I couldn't find the actual data until just now.

I'm surprised to see that Stanley McChrystal has broken the 1 threshold (1.6) and people like Lieberman are even trading at all.

[Yelnoc]

Palin and Daniels were the only two whose chances rose.

[Yelnoc]

Wow, Gingrich has really slipped.

[Yelnoc]

Well, if it comes down to the top 5 I will backing Thune for the nomination.

[Yelnoc]

I find it interesting that at this point in the last Presidential race McCain was already grossing half while Romney has even broken a fourth. 

Of course, go Daniels!  It's nice to see him above Pawlenty as he deserves to be.  I do wonder what has trigger his recent upswing.

[Yelnoc]

I'd say everyone above 6 has a chance, though we all know who I'm pulling for.  I have to say, this will be the most up in the air GOP primary in living memory.

[Yelnoc]

Palin's share price is having a bit of a meltdown today.  It's down to its lowest price since Summer 2009, shortly after she resigned as governor.  Daniels has been surging this past week, and is now up to a tie for third place with Thune:

Romney 19.6
Palin 13.5
Daniels 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.4
Pawlenty 6.5
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Christie 2.4
Barbour 2.1
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5
Johnson 1.4

Will Palin run for president?
yes 55.5
(lowest it's been in many months)

I still remember a couple months ago when everyone thought I was a crazy for supporting "a nobody like Daniels".  Once the Palin collapse is complete he will be in second.  If Romney continues to bottom out MyManMitch will be numero uno.

[Yelnoc]

Can I invest 40 shares in Ron Paul (R-TX) please?

It's your money....

[Yelnoc]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Yelnoc]

Comparing the "Winning Individual" to "GOP Nomination" is very interesting.  Roughly a third of Romney, Thune, Pawlenty, and Huckabee supporters think their candidate will win the election while most of the Daniels supporters think he will win.  I have to ask, though, why is Biden trading at all in the "Winning Individual" category?

[Yelnoc]

Comparing the "Winning Individual" to "GOP Nomination" is very interesting.  Roughly a third of Romney, Thune, Pawlenty, and Huckabee supporters think their candidate will win the election while most of the Daniels supporters think he will win.  I have to ask, though, why is Biden trading at all in the "Winning Individual" category?

Well, if something happens to Obama, then of course Biden is a possibility to be elected in 2012.

Also, "supporters" isn't really the right word for it.  You can bet on a candidate's chances without actually supporting them.

True, though I would think that political convictions motivate much of the trading in these futures.

[Yelnoc]

For the Curious, here is everyone trading at 1 or over ("last" price).

Romney 23.8
Palin 11.5
Thune 10.9
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.4
Daniels 7.9
Huntsman 5.5
Gingrich 5.2
Barbour 3.6
Bachmann 3.1
Bush 2.5
Giuliani 2.1
Trump 2.0
Christie 1.9
DeMint 1.6
Johnson 1.2
Paul 1.1

[Yelnoc]

I can see why Gingrich's chances would rise, considering the recent speculation, but what caused the Daniels, Huckabee, and Romney jumps I wonder?

[Yelnoc]

I see jmfcst hasn't got rid of his Pence shares

[Yelnoc]

Daniels goes up?

Is that shocking news?

[Yelnoc]

Daniels goes up?

Is that shocking news?

I'd argue it makes little sense for him to go up in the past week.  In fact the only Daniels activity in the past week has been bucking the party and killing Indiana's new anti-union bills.  He could get past that in a primary but why would it boost his price?  Seems wrong.  He also hasn't made any new moves toward running.  His price is comparable to Pawlenty who is basically already running and comparably strong on paper if not stronger.

I also don't see why Palin's loss (whatever drove it in past week I'm not clear on) should be Daniels's gain.  Don't see her supporters going to him if she doesn't run or flops but to someone who'd be tougher for him to beat than Palin.  I actually think Daniels and Palin's chances are correlated.  I think his best path is if he clears out the grown-up wing while she does the Tea Party side.  And her best path might be the same thing.  So one's momentum should help the other.

Daniels only went up 1.3, within the realm of statistical noise.  That said, Pawlenty is a much weaker potential candidate than Daniels; the fact that their share prices are almost the same despite Pawlenty clearly in the running and Daniels on the fence is indicative of that.  As to Palin, I highly doubt her fall and Daniels gain are in any way related.