The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[RogueBeaver]

Giffords happened to be on Palin's Obamacare "target list" with a crosshairs over her CD. Pure coincidence, but we all know what happened to Goldwater in '63.

[RogueBeaver]

This is all Giffords fallout presumably. Or is the realization that she isn't going to run starting to sink in? Mixture of the 2?

[RogueBeaver]

In retrospect, the fact that Giuliani was a media candidate with no base ("roof without a foundation") and that the Dems were desperate to toss their polarizing dynast under the bus, plus their history of bucking the frontrunner in favor of a promising dark horse, were ignored. Given that Romney isn't splitting his base with anyone like Hillary did with WWC voters in Iowa, like Barbour/Gingrich could well in the South, and Pawlenty/Gingrich/Barbour split the SoCon vote, I see no reason to doubt the heavy odds favouring a Romney nomination.

[RogueBeaver]

Then the obvious beneficiaries would be Gingrich or Barbour. Though IMO anyone who thinks Bachmann and Barbour have equal shots at the nomination, or that Pawlenty has a better chance than Gingrich, is either a) deluded b) forgot GOP primary dynamics c) both.

[RogueBeaver]

You don't need inside info to know that Perry is likely staying out.

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate, Cain might pass Perry... depending on how the SH stuff plays out.

[RogueBeaver]

Why are the 2 Shermanesques, Rubio and Christie, trading so high?

[RogueBeaver]

Why are the 2 Shermanesques, Rubio and Christie, trading so high?

No one believes denial of VP interest this early.  Once they actually refuse to be vetted, then it's time to actually believe them.

So we'll wait then. Interesting that Jon Kyl (who openly expressed interest) and Paul Ryan (who's left the door slightly ajar) aren't being traded though.

[RogueBeaver]

I doubt it's this.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/13/key-gingrich-staff-member-departs-over-mormon-comment/

[RogueBeaver]

Gingrich tripled down on RWSE yesterday by calling the Roadmap "stupid." That's without mentioning already provoking George Will into taking Romney's side on the Bain thing.