The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[LastVoter]

The ModernBourbon Democrats make their predictions (which aren't much different from a couple months ago, unlike the jmfcsts):

Gingrich: 30%
Romney: 40%
Paul: 30%
Everyone else: Very small number (if, say, Paul has a heart attack, Gingrich is stabbed by a vengeful ex wife relative, Romney is blown up by terrorists, etc)

Do you really think Paul has a 30% shot at nomination??

He really is only competitive in Iowa. He absolutely has to win it to have a shot, and at least Romney or Gingrich to collapse in NH or SC to be a serous contender. I'd say he has a 1/3 chance of winning Iowa and about 10% chance for Romney to collapse to Huntsman and 20% chance for Gingrich to collapse to a FOTM in SC. So that's about a 5% chance at most.

[LastVoter]

If I was old enough, I would have made a killing this cycle.

Basically the entire Intrade strategy is bet against Romney when he is above 90%, and bet on the PPP poll when it comes out with a new development.

[LastVoter]

Paul 0.01%

explain

as of this date, there is an extremely slight, but non zero, chance for Paul to win the nomination.

What about Gingrich?