Eight maps to understand 2008 electoral college structure

[Landslide Lyndon]

Indeed, Crist is probably the most electable AND charismatic of the current bunch of Republican contenders. But I assume that he won't run in 2012. He knows better than anyone that he has no chance in the primary (especially in states like Iowa and South Carolina).

IMHO, Crist thinks that if the GOP nominates a staunch conservative in 2012 and he/she gets crushed ala Mondale, then by 2016 the base will come to appreciate his moderate credentials and electability argument.     

[Antonio the Sixth]

IMHO, Crist thinks that if the GOP nominates a staunch conservative in 2012 and he/she gets crushed ala Mondale, then by 2016 the base will come to appreciate his moderate credentials and electability argument.     

Exactly.

[minionofmidas]

Promised to continue that county-by-county overview

IN -
D by 20 has McCain still winning 45 counties, not quite half the counties in the state, while 32 currently R counties would be Democratic in that scenario.
D by 10 has Obama winning what he really won plus Blackford, Brown, Sullivan, Crawford and Scott - incidentally all quite rural counties.
D by 5 has McCain winning what he really won plus Spencer.
D by 1 adds Starke and Vanderburgh to the R tally
R by 1 adds Porter and Madison
R by 5 adds Tippecanoe
R by 10 adds St Joseph, Vermillion, Vigo and Delaware
R by 20 adds LaPorte and Perry, leaving the Democrats with Lake, Marion(!) and Monroe

IL-
D by 20 has McCain still winning 31 counties, while 25 additional counties would flip
D by 10 has Obama winning what he really won plus Marshall, Morgan, Jersey, Randolph, Bond and Marion
D by 5 has McCain winning what he really won plus Grundy, Schuyler, Cass, McLean, Vermilion, Macon and Pulaski - the number of close results in IL this year is astounding...
D by 1 has McCain adding another 10 counties
R by 1, another 5
R by 5, another 7 including Kane and DuPage
R by 10, another 7 including DeKalb, Will, Winnebago, Peoria. At this point, Obama holds 10 counties: Cook, Lake, Whiteside, Rock Island, Knox, Henderson, Fulton, Champaign, St Clair and Jackson
R by 20 is a Republican sweep except for Cook.

Things look a little different in the Upper Midwest...
MI
D by 20 has Republicans reduced to a paltry remnant of Livingston, Ottawa and Missaukee.
D by 10 has McCain still losing 8 counties he currently won.
D by 5 has McCain adding 5 including Kent
D by 1 has him adding another 19, getting us a map similar to 2004s.
R by 1 adds Benzie and Delta
R by 5 adds 6 more including Macomb
R by 10 adds 4 more including Oakland. At this point, Obama holds 10 counties
R by 20 flips half of those - Kalamazoo, Saginaw, Isabella, Marquette and Gogebic - leaving Dems with Wayne, Washtenaw, Genesee, Ingham and Muskegon.

WI
D by 20 has Republicans reduced to five counties - four north of Milwaukee and Florence.
D by 10 still has 4 of McCain's 13 flipping - Walworth (which hasn't voted for a Democrat since the Civil War), Sheboygan, Taylor and Polk
D by 5 has McCain gaining five counties
D by 1 adds another six
R by 1, another six
R by 5, 10 more
R by 10, 9 more. That's still 23 Democratic counties.
R by 20, Dems reduced to 8 including three I couldn't have guessed - Milwaukee, Rock, Dane, Iowa, Portage, Menominee, Bayfield, Douglas.

Note that the paltry R remains at D>20 include heavily populated areas. And that Michigan Republicans just narrowly avoided a map as ugly as Wisconsin's.

MN
D by 20 has McCain win just 16 counties
D by 10 has him win what he won minus Wabasha, Goodhue, Nobles, Lyon, Renville, Anoka
D by 5 what he won plus Watonwan, Murray, Lincoln, Stevens, Pennington, Marshall, Aitkin, Pine - lots and lots of close counties here, too
D by 1, 10 more R counties including Dakota, and ties up Red Lake
R by 1, flips Big Stone
R by 5, six more R counties (and the state)
R by 10, another 5, leaving just 11 Democratic counties
R by 20 reduces the Dems to just Ramsey, Hennepin and St Louis (but note that Hennepin is very close, and so are a couple of rural counties that flip)

IA
D by 20 reduces McCain to 12 counties including that 5-county block in the northwest (but also 3 or 4 east central counties)
D by 10, McCain loses Wright, Buena Vista, Woodbury, Monona, Pottawattamie, Decatur, Appanoose, Washington
D by 5, McCain gains Iowa, Warren, Franklin, Hardin, Hamilton, Greene; and ties up Clarke
D by 1, McCain gains another 11 counties
R by 1, McCain gains Jasper and Boone
R by 5, McCain gains 8
R by 10, McCain gains 10 including Polk and Scott
R by 20, McCain gains 14 of the remaining 15 counties, the sole exemption being Johnson

MO
Is Missouri the state with the strongest metro-hick polarization? Might be worth studying that question in detail...
Even at D by 20, McCain wins 87 counties to Obama's 28.
D by 10, McCain wins 103 (what he really won minus Clay, Saline, Adair) but loses the state
D by 5, Obama loses Buchanan and Washington
D by 1, loses Jefferson and Iron
R by 1, same
R by 5, loses Boone (and wins the counties Kerry won)
R by 10, loses Ste Genevieve
R by 20, loses Jackson and St Louis County, but holds onto the city with ease.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks, that's a very good job.
If you can, you should make some maps to illustrate your data.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks, that's a very good job.
If you can, you should make some maps to illustrate your data.

I provide the data, someone else needs to make the maps. It's a long-established pattern on here.


Great Plains
D by 20 still has McCain winning 27 counties in ND, 35 in SD, and such overwhelming majorities of KS and NE counties that it's not funny (losing just 4 in NE and 8 in KS compared to what actually happened. In contrast, 7 counties in ND, which has far fewer than KS, and 15 counties in SD would flip).
D by 10 - Obama plus Walsh, Ramsey, Barnes (ND), Yankton, Jerauld, Deuel (SD) and Shawnee (KS)
D by 5 - Obama minus Minnehaha, Lake (SD) and Crawford (KS)
D by 1 - McCain picks up 4 counties in ND incl. Grand Forks, 4 counties in SD, and 3 out of 4 Democratic counties in Nebraska
R by 1 - Picks up 3 more ND counties incl. Cass, and Thurston County, Nebraska, sweeping that state (as Bush did in 2000)
R by 5 - makes no difference, actually.
R by 10 - McCain picks up Ransom ND, Marshall and Day SD.
R by 20 - McCain picks up Sargent and Steele ND and Clay, Roberts and Corson SD.
Obama still wins 8 counties in the Dakotas (all Indian Country) and Wyandotte and Douglas, KS. Gee at Douglas County. I know it's a college town, but to be so out of sync with the state? Do they all move out of state as soon as they graduate, except for those that find a uni job?

Maryland, including Delaware
D by 20 - McCain holds ten counties in Maryland: Worcester, Caroline, Queen Anne's, Cecil, Harford, St Mary's, Carroll, Washington, Allegany, Garrett. Also loses Sussex DE.
D by 10 - holds another four (Calvert, Talbot, Dorchester, Wicomico) losing three compared to the real map (Somerset, Anne Arundel, Frederick). Holds Sussex.
D by 5 - McCain gains Kent MD
D by 1 - no further change
R by 1 - ditto
R by 5 - McCain holds Kent DE
R by 10 - McCain gains Baltimore County
R by 20 - McCain gains Howard. Obama holds Baltimore City, Montgomery, PG's and Charles, and New Castle DE. Both states also (narrowly) flip.

[minionofmidas]

Virginia

D+20 - McCain wins 45 counties (down 29 on reality) and four cities (down 7) - Colonial Heights, Poquoson (tiny, uber-rich suburbs), Bristol (deep in the southwest), and Salem (in the southwest. And a suburb. But not like Colonial Heights and Poquoson.)
D+10 - actual map minus Accomack, Alleghany, Dickenson, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Nottoway and Southampton counties, and Norton and VB cities.
D +5 - actual map plus Buckingham county and Chesapeake and Staunton cities. Close counties seem to have broken in the Republicans' favor to an unusual degree here.
D +1 - McCain adds King & Queen, Montgomery and Rappahannock Counties and the city of Winchester
R +1 - no change
R + 5 - seven more counties and four cities flip
R + 10 - Another two counties (including Prince William) and three cities
R + 20 - Another five counties (including Fairfax) and four cities (including Roanoke). Obama still wins 14 cities including most of the largest urban centers (VB and Chesapeake are not "centers"), but just three counties: heavily Black Charles City and Greensville, and Arlington which isn't exactly a typical county.

West Virginia -
D + 20 - McCain still wins 32 counties (vs 48 right now)
D + 10 - McCain loses Brooke, Fayette and Kanawha
D + 5 - McCain gains Marion and Braxton
D + 1 - and Jefferson, Monongalia and Webster, reducing Democrats to just Boone and McDowell
R + 1 - same
R + 5 - clean sweep!

[minionofmidas]

North Carolina -
D+20 - Republicans still win 44 of their current 67 counties. Appalachian areas seem somewhat overrepresented in the list of what would flip if I see this correctly.
D+10 - 8 counties would flip to Obama, including New Hanover (largest county in the state to vote for McCain)
D+5 - 3 counties flip to McCain - Hyde, Bladen and Richmond
D+1 - 6 more, including two of Obama's Appalachian counties
R+1 - 1 more (Granville)
R+5 - 3 more including Forsyth
R+10 - 6 more including Wake, Buncombe
R+20 - 6 more including Guilford,. Mecklenburg. Obama still holds eight counties.

South Carolina
D+20 - Republicans still win 19 of their current 26 counties, flippers being Darlington, Beaufort, Georgetown, Florence, Chesterfield, Edgefield, Union
D+10 - Darlington flips D
D+5 - Colleton and Barnwell flip R
D+1 - Calhoun and McCormick
R+1 - no difference
R+5 - Dillon, Chester and Charleston
R+10 - Clarendon and Sumter
R+20 - Marlboro, Hampton and Jasper. That leaves 8 Democratic counties including Richland.

Georgia
D+20 - all but 13 currently Republican counties would still be Republican. Flippers include Gwinnett and Cobb.
D+10 - Early and Wilkinson flip D
D+5 - Baker, Chattahoochee, Newton and Douglas flip R
D+1 - four more
R+1 - three more
R+5 - two more. All of these are rural places (and those newly flipped negrifying outer suburbs).
R+10 - four more including Chatham
R+20 - six more including Bibb, Muscogee. That still leaves 11 Democratic counties incl. Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, Clarke, Dougherty

Florida
D+20 - all but 14 Republican counties remain so. Flippers include Marion, Duval, and a whole string of counties north and south of Tampa.
D+10 - two counties flip Democratic - Duval and Sarasota
D+5 - Flagler flips Republican
D+1 - Jefferson, Volusia, Monroe
R+1  Hillsborough and Pinellas
R+5 - St Lucie
R+10 - Miami-Dade
R+20 - five of the remaining seven counties flip, leaving Broward and (Black) Gadsden in Democratic hands

Kentucky
D+20 - Dem-held territory expands from the current 8 to 27 counties
D+10 - even this has four counties flipping: Muhlenberg, Franklin, Bath, Floyd
D+5 - Rowan goes Republican
D+1 - five counties flip
R+1 - no change
R+5 - Jefferson flips, leaving Elliott County as the last Dem bastion
R+10 - no change
R+20 - county sweep

Tennessee
D+20 - even this only expands the Democratic position from the current six to fifteen counties
D+10 - same as real map
D+5 - Jackson and Houston go Republican
D+1 - Hardeman goes, leaving Democrats with Shelby, Davidson and Haywood
R+1 - same
R+5 - same
R+10 - same
R+20 - Democrats still hold Shelby, very narrowly

Alabama
D+20 - 8 counties flip Democratic including Mobile
D+10 - two: Conecuh and Barbour
D+5 - same as real map
D+1 - McCain gains Jefferson and Marengo
R+1 - gains Russell
R+5 - no change. This still has a solid 10-county Democratic belt across the state, btw, though it doesn't reach the Georgia line anymore.
R+10 - no change
R+20 - McCain gains Montgomery and Hale, fracturing the Black Belt into three parts.

Mississippi
D+20 - eleven counties flip Democratic
D+10 - one county - Benton (which was the only white-majority county in the state to vote for John Kerry)
D+5 - two counties go Republican - Oktibbeha and Chickasaw
D+1 - Pike flips
R+1 - Panola, Yazoo, Copiah
R+5 - Jasper
R+10 - Adams
R+20 - six more. Democrats still win 15 counties.

Arkansas
D+20 - Democrats add only five counties - Mississippi, Monroe, Dallas, Clark and Ouachita
D+10 - Johnny Cash's home county of Mississippi would still be voting for Obama in this scenario
D+5 - same as real map
D+1 - ditto
R+1 - Woodruff goes Republican
R+5 - Desha and Pulaski
R+10 - Crittenden and St Francis
R+20 - Lee, Chicot and Jefferson all flip. Phillips prevents a sweep.

Louisiana
D+20 - 10 parishes flip Democratic
D+10 - Bienville still flips
D+5 - East Baton Rouge goes Republican
D+1 - so does Caddo (both big urban parishes)
R+1 - no change
R+5 - Iberville and Tensas flip
R+10 - three parishes flip, all named after saints
R+20 - Madison flips. Orleans and East Carroll don't.

Oklahoma
D+20 - is about the kind of uniform swing Democrats would currently need to win anything here, namely Cherokee County
Anything else is all-Republican.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody wants to do a county map ?

[minionofmidas]

I scribbled down the remainder of this thing, but it seems that I never posted it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I scribbled down the remainder of this thing, but it seems that I never posted it.

Yes, and that's the reason why I would like a map. If I knew how to do it, I would do it.

[Hash]

Nobody wants to do a county map ?

What kind of a map? I could.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody wants to do a county map ?

What kind of a map? I could.

In reality eight maps, like those I made in the first page of the topic, but showing counties' vote instead of States'.