A 2012 Scenario

[Beet]

Economic Events
The Obama administration continues to insist on unpopular bailouts for financial firms, but it fails to reverse the global slump and the unwinding of the multi-trillion dollar credit bubble. Several debt crises emerge but the Obama administration manages to avoid default in part by IMF restructuring of debts and in part by printing money. Otherwise, things are a disaster.

2009
GDP (-6.7%); Dec. 31 DOW: 5,500; Unemp. 9.5%
2010
GDP (-12.5%); Dec. 31 DOW: 3,000; Unemp. 17.5%
2011
GDP (-11.5%); Dec. 31 DOW: 1,800; Unemp. 30%
October 2012
GDP ytd (-5.2%); Oct. 31 DOW: 2,500; Unemp. 32%

The Republicans recaptured the House in 2010 and hold a majority in 36 House delegations.

Despite ominous rumblings from authoritarian regimes abroad, economic issues dominate the election. Polls show any Republican with a record landslide win over Obama. The Republican candidates, Mitt Romney, Bobby Jindal, Bob McDonnell, Sarah Palin and Charlie Crist all craft conservative platforms.

On April 30, 2011, Lou Dobbs announces that he is unsatisfied with both parties and launches his Working Americans party. It quickly draws support from many disaffected former Democratic groups, especially unions, "blue dog" Democrats and many others, including Republicans and independents as well.

There is talk of other candidates challenging Obama in the Democratic primaries but in the end no high profile candidate gets in. Nonetheless, several severely underfunded candidates hold Obama to 55% in the Iowa caucus and under 50% in the New Hampshire primary.

In January 2012 Sarah Palin easily wins the Iowa caucus on the back of fanatical support from the conservative base.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden (Democratic)
Platform:
Defends the record of the administration. Points to signs of recovery in 2012. Says if Republicans win it will lead to extremism. Supports printing money to pay debt rather than default. Stay in WTO, NAFTA.
Sarah Palin/Bob McDonnell (Republican)
Platform:
Conservative. Supports massive cuts in spending. Except for unemployment insurance, wants to cut everything. Get government out of health care, housing, and education. Withdraw from WTO, but stay in NAFTA. Supports defaulting on debt acquired by bailing out financial institutions.
Lou Dobbs/Mary Landrieu (Working Americans)
Platform:
Populist. Default on debt acquired by bailing out financial institutions. Use the money for unemployment insurance, public works, health care, education and housing. Withdraw from WTO and NAFTA. Rebuild industrial base.

Polls
January 1, 2012
Palin - 47%, Dobbs 26%, Obama 16%
June 30, 2012
Dobbs - 50%, Palin 32%, Obama 16%
October 31, 2012
Dobbs 38%, Palin 37%, Obama 22%

Who wins? Does it go to the House? Maps?

Final results:
Dobbs- 36%
Palin* - 38%
Obama - 26%

Image Link

[Psychic Octopus]

This scenario is Doomsday. We won't see 32% unemployed, that is crazy. 15-20% would seem more likely.

Dobbs Wins. It Does Not Go to the House. . He wins 44% of the PV,  This Is a very strange scenario due to the enormity of the crisis, however