Portugal 2009

[Verily]

Legislative elections will be held in September of this year. (The next Presidential election will be in 2010.) The left-wing Socialists won a landslide victory in 2005 over the right-wing Social Democrats and look likely to repeat that performance, albeit with a stronger far-left presence.

2005
PS: 45.0% (121 seats) [left-wing]
PSD: 28.8% (75 seats) [right-wing]
CDU: 7.6% (14 seats) [far-left coalition of communists and greens]
CDS/PP: 7.3% (12 seats) [ultra-religious conservatives and extreme neoliberals]
BE: 6.4% (8 seats) [more far-leftists]


New poll
PS: 39.6%
PSD: 24.9%
CDU: 11.9%
BE: 10.1%
CDS/PP: 9.7%



Bono, I would imagine, is not happy.

[Vasall des Midas]

The left-wing Socialists won a landslide victory in 2005 over the right-wing Social Democrats and look likely to repeat that performance, albeit with a stronger far-left presence.

drool

The CDU is really just the old Communist Party - that Green alliance partner is a joke. The BE is sorta half-Green half-Trot (*just* my cup of tea, then ).

[frenger]

I am definitely not happy, but if you knew the sort of authoritarian antics the socialist government has been up to you wouldn't be either, trust me.

By the way, your description of CDS as "ultra-religious conservatives" is hilariously over the top. They're just a run-of-the-mill christian-democratic party.

I'll be voting for them, incidentally, since the current PSD leadership is possibly the most incompetent in its history and the current leader less charismatic than Walter Veltroni. Think Tories circa 2002.

[Hans-im-Glück]

This poll isn't surprising. It's looking like the PSD will destroy himself and there is no alternative to the PS. The leaders of the PSD are a joke and why should the people vote for this party when they make war against each other.

All people who says the PS government isn't good and not really socialistic, they will voting for the Communist Party/CDU (this is the authoritarian part of the far-left) or the Bloque Esquerda (this is the more libertarian part of the far-left). I think in the next election the PS don't get more than 50% of the seats, but they are the strongest power in the parlament and nothing is possible without the PS.

The CDS/PP isn't a Christian Democratic Party. I think Bono isn't right. The CDS/PP is a mixture of a ultraconservative catholic Party and a neo-liberal Party(like a ultra-FDP). I think that's not a good combination and this is the reason the never get more than 10%.

I speak not about things I haven't knowing. My father is from Portugal and I'm well informed about politics in Portugal. It's better like my English.

[frenger]

This poll isn't surprising. It's looking like the PSD will destroy himself and there is no alternative to the PS. The leaders of the PSD are a joke and why should the people vote for this party when they make war against each other.

All people who says the PS government isn't good and not really socialistic, they will voting for the Communist Party/CDU (this is the authoritarian part of the far-left) or the Bloque Esquerda (this is the more libertarian part of the far-left). I think in the next election the PS don't get more than 50% of the seats, but they are the strongest power in the parlament and nothing is possible without the PS.

The CDS/PP isn't a Christian Democratic Party. I think Bono isn't right. The CDS/PP is a mixture of a ultraconservative catholic Party and a neo-liberal Party(like a ultra-FDP). I think that's not a good combination and this is the reason the never get more than 10%.

I speak not about things I haven't knowing. My father is from Portugal and I'm well informed about politics in Portugal. It's better like my English.

Hans, the current CDS leader, who is supposedly a member of its "liberal" wing, recently proposed abolishing co-payments in the National Health Service--note that these co-payments are something ridiculous as 10€ for a specialist visit, and half the people are already exempt anyway. If this is an "ultra-liberal" FDP analogue, then I'm sad for the state of liberalism in Europe.

[Vasall des Midas]

This poll isn't surprising. It's looking like the PSD will destroy himself and there is no alternative to the PS. The leaders of the PSD are a joke and why should the people vote for this party when they make war against each other.

All people who says the PS government isn't good and not really socialistic, they will voting for the Communist Party/CDU (this is the authoritarian part of the far-left) or the Bloque Esquerda (this is the more libertarian part of the far-left). I think in the next election the PS don't get more than 50% of the seats, but they are the strongest power in the parlament and nothing is possible without the PS.

The CDS/PP isn't a Christian Democratic Party. I think Bono isn't right. The CDS/PP is a mixture of a ultraconservative catholic Party and a neo-liberal Party(like a ultra-FDP). I think that's not a good combination and this is the reason the never get more than 10%.

I speak not about things I haven't knowing. My father is from Portugal and I'm well informed about politics in Portugal. It's better like my English.

Hans, the current CDS leader, who is supposedly a member of its "liberal" wing, recently proposed abolishing co-payments in the National Health Service--note that these co-payments are something ridiculous as 10€ for a specialist visit, and half the people are already exempt anyway. If this is an "ultra-liberal" FDP analogue, then I'm sad for the state of liberalism in Europe.

If it`s the poorer people who're exempt, then yes that would be exactly what the FDP is entirely about.

[Hans-im-Glück]

This poll isn't surprising. It's looking like the PSD will destroy himself and there is no alternative to the PS. The leaders of the PSD are a joke and why should the people vote for this party when they make war against each other.

All people who says the PS government isn't good and not really socialistic, they will voting for the Communist Party/CDU (this is the authoritarian part of the far-left) or the Bloque Esquerda (this is the more libertarian part of the far-left). I think in the next election the PS don't get more than 50% of the seats, but they are the strongest power in the parlament and nothing is possible without the PS.

The CDS/PP isn't a Christian Democratic Party. I think Bono isn't right. The CDS/PP is a mixture of a ultraconservative catholic Party and a neo-liberal Party(like a ultra-FDP). I think that's not a good combination and this is the reason the never get more than 10%.

I speak not about things I haven't knowing. My father is from Portugal and I'm well informed about politics in Portugal. It's better like my English.

Hans, the current CDS leader, who is supposedly a member of its "liberal" wing, recently proposed abolishing co-payments in the National Health Service--note that these co-payments are something ridiculous as 10€ for a specialist visit, and half the people are already exempt anyway. If this is an "ultra-liberal" FDP analogue, then I'm sad for the state of liberalism in Europe.

Nobody believes when the CDS/PP make social promises. All of the politics in the last years was against the poor people and i don't see that is changing.

The leader of the CDS/PP, Paulo Portas, is a mixture between Guido Westerwelle  and a very bad parody of Jörg Haider. He wants to make a neoliberal + far-right-populist Politician, but he haven't the stature. He's more like a caricature. I can remember him as Defence minister and he wasn't a good one (i say only Iraq).

The economic politics of the CDS/PP  is far-right and in Social aspects it's a fascist party (abortion, drugs, law and order etc. etc.). In the political Matrix they have E 7,00; S 7,50. BTW The ultra-catholic wing makes not the politics i like, but the have more understanding for the wishes of normal people.

When you want that the political right can win elections in future, than you must hope the PSD make a comeback. Maybe that's happen, when they lose the next election and get a new leadership.

[Hashemite]

I have no clue which party I support in Portugal. Obviously not the Commies, Trots, and CDS/PP. And not the PSD nor PS.

Maybe whatever that monarchy party is called.

[Vasall des Midas]

While the CDS/PP is infinitely preferable to LAOS and the election system is also better, I can't help but note that the extent of the similarities between Portugal and Greece are remarkable.

[Hans-im-Glück]

@Hashemite:

The monarchy Party, called PPM is maybe the right for you. Today it's a centrist green party


@Lewis:

I'm really no friend of the CDS/PP, but they are a pragmatic party and not like LAOS. The CDS/PP was some years in government and then the stupid ideas will be minimized ;-)

[Hashemite]

@Hashemite:

The monarchy Party, called PPM is maybe the right for you. Today it's a centrist green party

Ah, that's the one. It's a great party.

[Vasall des Midas]

I'm really no friend of the CDS/PP, but they are a pragmatic party and not like LAOS. The CDS/PP was some years in government and then the stupid ideas will be minimized ;-)

Yes. I know. I was merely damning with faint praise.

But, well. The (very approximate) economic situation. The year 1974. The country size. The (only comparative) weakness of regional faultlines. A system of representation that is somewhat proportional but still quite clearly favors major parties. And now - even though it's a recent development - they both have a major center-left party, a major center-right party, two pretty far left parties to their left, of which the more traditionalist one is still called Communist. And a rightwing party to their right.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I'm really no friend of the CDS/PP, but they are a pragmatic party and not like LAOS. The CDS/PP was some years in government and then the stupid ideas will be minimized ;-)

Yes. I know. I was merely damning with faint praise.

But, well. The (very approximate) economic situation. The year 1974. The country size. The (only comparative) weakness of regional faultlines. A system of representation that is somewhat proportional but still quite clearly favors major parties. And now - even though it's a recent development - they both have a major center-left party, a major center-right party, two pretty far left parties to their left, of which the more traditionalist one is still called Communist. And a rightwing party to their right.

Yes that's true. Portugal and Greece have many things in common, in political things . There is one big difference. The main center partys, from the left and from the right aren't in "war" like in Greece. The Portuguese people are more "cool". They aren't so ideological fundamentalist like Greece. In Portugal there isn't this "political dynasty" system and in Portugal the people don't eat Gyros

[Hans-im-Glück]

It was a boring afternoon for me and I convert the result of European election for Portugal into mandates of a general election. I know there will be another result in September or October but I find it very interesting.

The hypothetical result 2009 (2005)

Açores     PSD/PPD 3 (+1); PS 2 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Aveiro      PSD/PPD 7 (+1); PS 4 (-4); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 2 (+1)
Beja        PSD/PPD 0 (NC); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 2 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Braga      PSD/PPD 8 (+1); PS 6 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 2 (+1)
Bragança      PSD/PPD 2 (NC); PS 2 (NC); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Castelo Branco      PSD/PPD 3 (+2); PS 2 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Coimbra    PSD/PPD 4 (+1); PS 4 (-2); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Évora      PSD/PPD 1 (+1); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Faro      PSD/PPD 3 (+1); PS 3 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Guarda      PSD/PPD 2 (NC); PS 2 (NC); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Leiria      PSD/PPD 5 (NC); PS 3 (-1); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (NC)
Lisboa      PSD/PPD 15 (+3); PS 15 (-8); B.E. 7 (+3); PCP-PEV 7 (+2); CDS/PP 4 (NC)

Madeira      PSD/PPD 5 (+2); PS 1 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Portalegre      PSD/PPD 1 (+1); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Porto      PSD/PPD 14 (+2); PS 14 (-6); B.E. 4 (+2); PCP-PEV 3 (+1); CDS/PP 3 (+1)

Santarém      PSD/PPD 4 (+1); PS 3 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (+1)
Setúbal      PSD/PPD 3 (NC); PS 5 (-3); B.E. 3 (+1); PCP-PEV 5 (+2); CDS/PP 1 (NC)
Viana do Castelo      PSD/PPD 4 (+2); PS 2 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (-1)

Vila Real      PSD/PPD 4 (+2); PS 1 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Viseu      PSD/PPD 5 (+1); PS 3 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (NC)

PORTUGAL      PSD/PPD 93 (+21); PS 75 (-45); B.E. 20 (+12); PCP-PEV 23 (+9); CDS/PP 15 (+3)

In the next general election there will be some changes of the mandates. Aveiro, Braga  and Porto maybe will win a seat. Lisboa, Castelo Branco and Bragança can loose one seat.

In the general election many people in smaller districts don't vote for the B.E or the PCP-PEV. They vote tactical, because they don't want to waste their vote. They vote then for the PS.

However, when the result is like the European Election, then I see no way for a strong government. PSD/PPD and CDS/PP have no majority and a coalition between PS, B.E. and PCP-PEV is very funny. I don't think that works. A minority government of PSD/PPD or PS isn't what I wish for Portugal.

[doktorb]

I once had Portugal described to me as the country with the most mis-named political parties in Europe....

[Hashemite]

I once had Portugal described to me as the country with the most mis-named political parties in Europe....

Probably due to the PSD.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The president of Portugal, Cavaco Silva, calls parliamentary elections  for September 27 . In October 11 there will be the municipal elections. His own party (PSD) wanted that both elections are on the same day. All other they should be on different days.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3&art_id=nw20090627171226635C324636

[Vasall des Midas]

I'm forced to agree with the PSD here. I like high turnout in my local elections.

[Tender Branson]

A new poll by Marktest has the Conservatives leading:

PSD: 35.8%
PS: 34.5%
BE: 13.1%
PCP: 9.4%
CDS: 4.4%
Others: 2.8%

Poll was done between June 16 and 20 amongst 800 adults.

http://diario.iol.pt/politica/tvi24-politica-psd-sondagem-ps-eleicoes/1072222-4072.html

[Vasall des Midas]

Wow at BE and CDS. Small wonder the PDS is ahead in that case.

comparing with last election this is

PSD +7.0
CDS / PP -2.9

PS -10.5
BE +6.7 (compared to a record result, too)
PCP / CDU +1.8

other -2.1

...and I just notice that's comparing with percentage of total rather than valid ballots. Redoing...

PSD +6.2
CDS / PP -3.1

PS -11.9
BE +6.8
PCP / CDU +1.6

other +0.4

[frenger]

CDS always underpolls.

There were polls putting them at 2% for the European elections, and look how that turned out. In fact, Portas raised a huge fuss about it and complained to the president about it.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New polls (July) for Portugal by Marktest http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/s~1/id~e9.aspx

PS            35,5
PSD/PPD  32,2
BE            14,3  (WOW)
PCP-PEV    7,4
CDS/PP      4,4

Okay, Bono is right, the CDS is often underpolled, but 4,4 is very very bad. Only a miracle can bring them a better result like 2005.

The CNE (National Comission of Elections) announce yesterday the mandates for every district. http://www.cne.pt/dl.cfm?FileID=1305

3 districts gain one seat
Aveiro
Braga
Porto

3 districts lose one seat
Bragança
Castelo Branco
Lisboa

I think this helps the PSD a little bit, not more

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Would the PS be willing to go into coalition with BE? What would that mean? Or is a grand Coalition more likely?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Would the PS be willing to go into coalition with BE? What would that mean? Or is a grand Coalition more likely?

It isn't impossible, but I don't think it gives a coalition between PS and BE. More possible is a minority government of the PS, tolerated by the BE or somebody. A grand coalition is nearly impossible. Politically the differences are not more like the CDU/CSU ans the SPD in Germany. I think they are so big political opponents in Portugal that serious nobody think this comes.

In Portugal they have some problems to make coalitions. Except a PSD-CDS coalition no one would work. All parties make a hard  campaign against the PS and then one of them make a coalition with the PS. This isn't plausible, but in politics all things can happen. I see big problems to get a stable administration after the 27Th September.

[frenger]

Well, I certianly think a PS-BE coalition is in the works, as shown by a recent shenanigan where the Block leader went defending a minister from some PSD attacks. That said, there's no official word about it, which is natural given that they don't want to scare center voters with the idea that they might want to share power with Trotskists.

A grand coalition has been done before when the two parties hated each other more; but in this case, the only way it'll be done is without Socrates, since he has acted in such a way towards the opposition during his tenure that no one would want to govern with him. So, it'd have to be a PSD-led grand coalition. That said, it's not anyone's favorite resolution.