United Kingdom Parliamentary by-election in Norwich North

[Harry Hayfield]

I found this on the BBC's report for Norwich North (and the colours are the same as used by the BBC at Election 2005). Are these the standard colours for UKIP and the Greens?

[You kip if you want to...]

I found this on the BBC's report for Norwich North (and the colours are the same as used by the BBC at Election 2005). Are these the standard colours for UKIP and the Greens?

Yeah, UKIP is normally always purple (even in their own material) and the Greens are always... green.

[minionofmidas]

Well, it's clear what happened, but less clear is the implications

Sky News Forecast: Con 450 seatsLab 98 seats Lib Dem 77 seats

BBC News Forecast: Con 467 seats Lab 115 seats Lib Dem 41 seats

Same result, but different forecasts. Can anyone explain why?

One might be based on notionals and the other on 2005 constituencies. For the locals, Sky was calculating from new notionals while the BBC was calculating the change from 2004.

Hmmm... I note that the Tories held 87% of their 2005 vote, the LDs 63%, Labour 30% and others running again 54% (and new others didn't poll enough to win the seat) while the Greens increased by 168% and the UKIP by 263%.

I'm almost inclined to take these figures to the notionals... makes little sense, but more sense than a uniform swing.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, progress report:
Labour to be wiped out in Brummagem as Edgbaston, Erdington, Northfield and Selly Oak fall to the Conservatives while the Lib Dems pick up Hall Green, Hodge Hill, Ladywood and Perry Barr.

Working down the alphabet, above Birmingham we have the LDs holding all they already have (Bath, Bermondsey, and Berwick) and nothing more, Galloway in Bethnal Green, and Labour holding only Ashton-under-Lyne, Barnsley C, Barnsley E, and Birkenhead. And Barking, but that's only due to the others-defacing assumptions I made. The "projected" Labour total vote is less than the actual 2005 BNP vote. It probably *is* time to start bracing yourself for a possible BNP seat gain there at the GE.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Lol, progress report:
Labour to be wiped out in Brummagem as Edgbaston, Erdington, Northfield and Selly Oak fall to the Conservatives while the Lib Dems pick up Hall Green, Hodge Hill, Ladywood and Perry Barr.

Working down the alphabet, above Birmingham we have the LDs holding all they already have (Bath, Bermondsey, and Berwick) and nothing more, Galloway in Bethnal Green, and Labour holding only Ashton-under-Lyne, Barnsley C, Barnsley E, and Birkenhead. And Barking, but that's only due to the others-defacing assumptions I made. The "projected" Labour total vote is less than the actual 2005 BNP vote. It probably *is* time to start bracing yourself for a possible BNP seat gain there at the GE.

Again, toss out Gordon Brown = No fascists in the next Parliament.

[afleitch]

From a Scottish perspective, there is a likelyhood based on Euro results and depending on the Glasgow NE by-election that Labour could be culled to between 10-12 seats in Scotland.

Labour has lost the 'Protestant' working class vote and holds on...just to the Catholic working class vote. All that keeps Labour afloat is a residual middle class vote across places such as Bishopbriggs, Renfrewshire etc. The SNP have made strenuous efforts to make advances in the Catholic working/middle class vote.

While it looks probable that Alistair Darling will loose his seat in Edinburgh I wouldn't be sure that Gordon Brown's seat is safe - he will certainly have to spend time away from the national campaign, campaigning in his own seat.

[minionofmidas]

Okay... the Labour rump that this method projects is truly laughable. Of course, that's "what would happen if turnout were as bad in the general as it is in by-elections that Labor has more or less given up on". Not, of course, a realistic assumption. Not even as a worst-case scenario, really.
The emerging new face of the hypothetical LD caucus is hilarious - the method basically predicts them to lose all the seats where they polled less than 38% (not percentage points) more than the Tories, gain everything where Labour polled less than 2.1 times as much as they did (and the Tories were in third place by a sufficient margin). In other words, the projection dazzles with the fantasy of the LDs as an urban party.
More fun facts: Seats where the Greens polled more than about a third of the Tories, a fourth of the LDs and one ninth of Labour fall to them. I may have overlooked a few, but so far (letter h) I have them picking up Brighton Pavilion, Holborn & St Pancras and both Hackney seats.
UKIP look too correlated (in 2005) to the Tories to gain representation, though again I may have overlooked something.
Tories to gain both Derby seats from third, with Labour falling to third place in both.
All three Hull seats becoming marginal - with all three parties winning one.

[minionofmidas]

Alright... here's the complete list for England.

Labour hold[/u] 48
Ashton-under-Lyne
Barking
Barnsley Central
Barnsley East
Birkenhead
Blackley & Broughton
Bolsover
Bootle
Camberwell & Peckham
Coventry North East
Denton & Reddish
Durham North
Durham North West
Easington
East Ham
Gateshead
Greenwich & Woolwich
Halton
Houghton & Sunderland South
Hull East
Jarrow
Knowsley
Leeds Central
Leicester East
Leigh
Liverpool Riverside
Liverpool Walton
Liverpoold West Derby
Makerfield
Manchester Central
Mansfield
Middlesbrough
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford
Nottingham North
Rotherham (UKIP in second place. I think the bad Tory and good UKIP and BNP results here last time are linked somehow, ie the Tory candidate came across as a joke. His surname was Rotherham, btw)
Salford & Eccles
Sedgefield
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
Sheffield Heeley
Sheffield South East
South Shields
St Helens North
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Tottenham
Tyneside North
Washington & Sunderland West
Wentworth & Dearne
West Ham

LD hold 29
Bath
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Berwick-upon-Tweed
Birmingham Yardley
Camborne & Redruth
Cambridge
Chesterfield
Colchester
Dorset Mid & Poole North
Guildford
Hampstead & Kilburn
Harrogate & Knavesborough
Hazel Grove
Hornsey & Crouch End
Kingston & Surbiton
Leeds North West
Lewes
Manchester Withington
Newton Abbot
Norfolk North
Oxford West & Abingdon
Rochdale
Sheffield Hallam
St Austell & Newquay
St Ives
Thornbury & Yate
Twickenham
Winchester
Yeovil

Respect hold 1
Bethnal Green & Bow (yes, I know he's not even standing there)

Con gain from LD 22
(I'm not posting Con hold or Con gain from Labour - that latter is, like, half the country or something)
Carshalton & Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Cornwall South East
Devon North
Devon West & Torridge
Eastleigh
Hereford & Hereford
Portsmouth South
Richmond Park
Romsey & Southampton North
Solihull
Somerton & Frome
Southport
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Truro & Falmouth
Westmorland & Lonsdale
York Outer

LD gain from Labour 29
Birmingham Hall Green
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Birmingham Ladywood
Birmingham Perry Barr
Blaydon
Blyth Valley
Bradford East
Brent Central
Burnley
City of Durham
Garston & Halewood
Hartlepool
Hull North
Islington North
Islington South
Leicester South
Liverpool Wavertree
Manchester Gorton
Newcastle Central
Newcastle East
Newcastle North
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Oxford East
Sheffield Central
St Helens South & Whiston
Streatham
Vauxhall
Walthamstow
Wansbeck

Green gain from Labour 7
Brighton Pavillion
Hackney North & Stoke Newington
Hackney South & Shoreditch
Holborn & St Pancras
Leeds West
Lewisham Deptford
Norwich South

Con gain from i 1
Kidderminster
(it is obviously unfair to make predictions on this seat based on some random indy. However, this still happens if we use the LD vote retention figure for the Doctor. Anyways, this is also why I'm stopping short of using this for Scotland or West Wales. Though I might have added the non-plaidvoting parts.)

[Harry Hayfield]

My forecast based on the by-elections since 2005 (excluding Haltemprice)
Conservatives 330 seats (+120 seats on Notionals 2005)
Labour 221 seats (-128 seats on Notionals 2005)
Liberal Democrats 68 seats (+6 seats on Notionals 2005)
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (Unchanged on Notionals 2005)
Scottish National Party 7 seats (+1 seat on Notionals 2005)
Plaid Cymru 4 seats (+2 seats on Notionals 2005)
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 seat (Unchanged on Notionals 2005)
Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1 seat (Unchanged on Notionals 2005)
Conservative overall majority of 1

[minionofmidas]

My forecast based on the by-elections since 2005 (excluding Haltemprice)

Ah. Based on all of them. Yes, that would give much more favorable (and probably far more reasonable) results.

[afleitch]

What about by-elections 'post Blair' ?

[minionofmidas]

Oh what the hell, it's a joke projection anyways. I'll just be adding a footnote for seats that would be Plaid/SNP on the alternative assumption of a flat vote share.

Labour hold 18 to 35
Aberavon
Caerphilly*
Cynon Valley
Islwyn
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
Neath*
Ogmore
Pontypridd
Rhondda
Swansea East
Torfaen
Airdrie & Shotts
Coatbridge, Chryston etc
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth*
Dunbartonshire West*
Dunfermline & West Fife* (yes, I know the LDs won the byelection here)
East Kilbride & elsewhere*
Falkirk*
Glasgow Central*
Glasgow East (yes, I know the SNP won the byelection here. Seems that Norwich was by no means Labour's worst byelection this cycle.)
Glasgow North East*
Glasgow North West
Glasgow South
Glasgow South West
Glenrothes*
Inverclyde*
Kilmarnock & Loudoun*
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Lanark & Hamilton East*
Linlithgow & Falkirk East*
Livingston*
Motherwell & Wishaw
Paisley & Renfrewshire North*
Paisley & Renfrewshire South*
Rutherglen & Hamilton West

Nat gain from Labour 4 to 26
Arfon
Llanelli
Ynys Mon
Dundee West

i hold 1
Blaenau Gwent

Con gain from LD 1
Brecon & Radnor

LD hold 12 to 13
Cardiff Central
Ceredigion*
Montgomeryshire
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
Argyll & Bute
Berwickshire & stuff
Caithness, Sutherland & whatnot
Dunbartonshire East
Edinburgh West
Fife North East
Gordon
Inverness & District
Orkney & Shetland
Ross Skye & Lochaber

LD gain from Labour 5 to 8
Swansea West
Aberdeen North*
Aberdeen South
East Lothian
Edinburgh East*
Edinburgh North and Leith
Glasgow North
Midlothian*

Con gain from Nat 0 to 2
Angus*
Perthshire North*

Con gain from Labour (only listing the footnoted cases)
Ayrshire North & Arran*
Ochil & Perthshire South*

Didnae list Nat holds either.

[AMOLAK MANN]

Well, it's clear what happened, but less clear is the implications

Sky News Forecast: Con 450 seatsLab 98 seats Lib Dem 77 seats

BBC News Forecast: Con 467 seats Lab 115 seats Lib Dem 41 seats

Same result, but different forecasts. Can anyone explain why?

Or there's the 218 tory majority which has the following 434/107/79/30.The most amount of Lib Dems which should be a comfort to you Harry!

[Harry Hayfield]

Post Blair by-elections only (excluding Haltemprice)
Conservatives 335 seats (+125 seats on Notionals 2005)
Labour 206 seats (-143 seats on Notionals 2005)
Liberal Democrats 75 seats (+13 seats on Notionals 2005)
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (Unchanged on Notionals 2005)
Scottish National Party 8 seats (+2 seats on Notionals 2005)
Plaid Cymru 5 seats (+3 seats on Notionals 2005)
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 seat (Unchanged on Notionals 2005)
Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1 seat (Unchanged on Notionals 2005)
Conservative overall majority of 20

[Verily]

You could refine that a bit by applying only Livingston, Glasgow East and Glenrothes to Scotland and the others to England (and Wales since there have been no by-elections in Wales except the highly atypical Blaenau Gwent). (Dunfermline could be argued for Scotland, too, but there the race was between two national parties while the SNP was the main challenger in the first three.)

[Harry Hayfield]

Scotland based on post Blair by-elections
Labour 41 seats (Unchanged on Election 2005)
Scottish National Party 10 seats (+4 seats on Election 2005)
Liberal Democrats 7 seats (-4 seats on Election 2005)
Conservatives 1 seat (Unchanged on Election 2005)

Conservative GAINS: 0
Labour GAINS: 2 (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey from Lib Dem, Dunbartonshire East from Lib Dem
Liberal Democrat GAINS: 0
Scottish National Party GAINS: 4 (Ochil and Perthshire South from Lab, Dundee West from Lab, Argyll and Bute from Lib Dem, Gordon from Lib Dem

[Harry Hayfield]

England based on post Blair by-elections (excluding Haltemprice)
Conservatives 374 seats (+168 seats)
Labour 94 seats (-184 seats)
Liberal Democrats 64 seats (+17 seats)
Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1 seat (Unchanged)

[doktorb]

"Excluding Haltemprice"

Wimp ;p