Portugal 2009

[Tender Branson]

PS moves further ahead of the PSD. New polls by CESOP, Intercampus and Aximage:

PS: 38-39%
PSD: 29-30%
BE: 9-11%
CDS-PP: 8-9%
CDU: 7-8%

The Aximage poll, which is the newest, shows a 10%-PS-advantage.

Looks like PS is losing about 6% compared with 2005, while the PSD is unchanged, the Left Bloc gaining about 4%, the Communists gaining 1% and the CDS-PP about 1-2%.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Tomorrow are the elections and the latest polls say that the  Socialist are the strongest party:

PS   38-40%
PSD 29-32%
B.E.  9-11%
PCP  7-8,5%
CDS  7-8,5%

It's lookin that after the election it gives a minority government of the PS. A coalition between PS and the Left Bloc B.E. is possible too, but i don't think it gives one.

[Tender Branson]

For results and turnout numbers check here:

http://www.legislativas2009.mj.pt

[Hash]

Yay, Hashemite's Official Endorsement™: Socialist Party

[minionofmidas]

Yay, Lewis Trondheim's Official Endorsement™: Bloque Esquerda

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yay, Hashemite's Official Endorsement™: Socialist Party

Wait, what?

[minionofmidas]

What time to expect results here?

[Hans-im-Glück]

in 34 minutes rtp will give a projection

[Hans-im-Glück]

Projection of Universidade Catolica for RTP

PS   40-36
PSD   29-25
B.E.   12-9
PCP   10-7
CDS   11,5-8,5

Mandates:

PS   106-102
PSD   73-69
B.E.   23-20
PCP   16-14
CDS   21-18

[Tender Branson]

In Portugal we trust !



Good to see the left not sucking in at least 1 country.

[Hash]

Victory!

[Hans-im-Glück]

Victory!

Hash, you are a winner

[minionofmidas]

That's a theoretical PS-BE majority, is it?

[Hans-im-Glück]

That's a theoretical PS-BE majority, is it?

Yes, but I'm not sure that we see. Maybe we get a minority government of the PS

[minionofmidas]

That's a theoretical PS-BE majority, is it?

Yes, but I'm not sure that we see. Maybe we get a minority government of the PS

A minority government able to rely largely on the BE is fine with me. But when Commie or Bourgeois support is needed, the PS tends to prefer Bourgeois support. Hence why a theoretical PS-BE majority is important.

[Hans-im-Glück]

http://tv1.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas2009/index.php?ano=2009&distrito=990000&concelho=&freguesia=

This is another site you can see the results

[Daniel Adams]

The CDS did better than expected, which is some consolation.

[Bono]

Fools, I told you CDS always underpolls. There is no PS-BE majority, but there is a PS-CDS one. It wouldn't be the first time it happened.

[Verily]

Why is Évora so left-wing? The Commies took second place (PS first, PSD third, BE a close fourth, hardline Commies 2%), but it sounds like a normal city.

[mileslunn]

Fools, I told you CDS always underpolls. There is no PS-BE majority, but there is a PS-CDS one. It wouldn't be the first time it happened.

That might not be a bad a thing.  At least you would get a fairly centrist government.  My understanding is the CDS is centre-right like the Social Democratic Party and the difference is primarily what type of conservatism.  Otherwise the PDS is more fiscally conservative while the CDS is more socially conservative.  Off course a left wing government here would be possible if the PS-BE-PCP formed a three party coalition, but I cannot see this happening.

[Hash]

Why is Évora so left-wing? The Commies took second place (PS first, PSD third, BE a close fourth, hardline Commies 2%), but it sounds like a normal city.

It's the Alentejo. Commie country.

[Verily]

Why is Évora so left-wing? The Commies took second place (PS first, PSD third, BE a close fourth, hardline Commies 2%), but it sounds like a normal city.

It's the Alentejo. Commie country.

That's not a "why" explanation.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why is Évora so left-wing? The Commies took second place (PS first, PSD third, BE a close fourth, hardline Commies 2%), but it sounds like a normal city.

It's the Alentejo. Commie country.

That's not a "why" explanation.

The Region  Alentejo is very left. It was the county of the big landowners and agricultural workers and the communists were very good organized there before the end of the dictatorship 1974. The other reason is that the south of Portugal is the south is much less religious than the north

[Tender Branson]

Final result (Portugal abroad is still outstanding, but the mainland is counted):

PS: 2.068.665 votos (37.7%)
PSD: 1.646.097 votos (30.0%)
CDS-PP: 592.064 votos (10.8%)
BE: 557.109 votos (10.2%)
CDU: 446.174 votos (8.1%)
Others: 175.402 votos (3.2%)

Eligible voters: 9.337.314
Total votes: 5.658.778
Valid votes: 5.485.511
Turnout: 60.6%

[Hans-im-Glück]

Final result (Portugal abroad is still outstanding, but the mainland is counted):

PS: 2.068.665 votos (37.7%)
PSD: 1.646.097 votos (30.0%)
CDS-PP: 592.064 votos (10.8%)
BE: 557.109 votos (10.2%)
CDU: 446.174 votos (8.1%)
Others: 175.402 votos (3.2%)

Eligible voters: 9.337.314
Total votes: 5.658.778
Valid votes: 5.485.511
Turnout: 60.6%

This is not correct in Portugal the blank ballots be counted

This is the final result:

PS   36,56%   2.068.665  96 Mandates
PPD/PSD   29,09%   1.646.097   78
CDS-PP   10,46%   592.064   21
B.E.   9,85%   557.109   16
PCP-PEV   7,88%   446.174   15

It's a victory for the PS, but not really a good one. The PSD have a disastrous result again. The CDS have a very good result. The B.E., they can be very satisfied. It's worse like in the polls, but they double their mandates. The PCP have a bad result, they live only by the strength their strongholds in the south.

What brings the future?. A coalition between PS and B.E. has no majority. A coalition between PS and CDS is possible and the B.E. and the PCP would like it . Maybe we see a grand coalition, who knows. The next time it will be not boring in Portugal