Portugal 2009

[Hans-im-Glück]

This poll isn't surprising. It's looking like the PSD will destroy himself and there is no alternative to the PS. The leaders of the PSD are a joke and why should the people vote for this party when they make war against each other.

All people who says the PS government isn't good and not really socialistic, they will voting for the Communist Party/CDU (this is the authoritarian part of the far-left) or the Bloque Esquerda (this is the more libertarian part of the far-left). I think in the next election the PS don't get more than 50% of the seats, but they are the strongest power in the parlament and nothing is possible without the PS.

The CDS/PP isn't a Christian Democratic Party. I think Bono isn't right. The CDS/PP is a mixture of a ultraconservative catholic Party and a neo-liberal Party(like a ultra-FDP). I think that's not a good combination and this is the reason the never get more than 10%.

I speak not about things I haven't knowing. My father is from Portugal and I'm well informed about politics in Portugal. It's better like my English.

[Hans-im-Glück]

This poll isn't surprising. It's looking like the PSD will destroy himself and there is no alternative to the PS. The leaders of the PSD are a joke and why should the people vote for this party when they make war against each other.

All people who says the PS government isn't good and not really socialistic, they will voting for the Communist Party/CDU (this is the authoritarian part of the far-left) or the Bloque Esquerda (this is the more libertarian part of the far-left). I think in the next election the PS don't get more than 50% of the seats, but they are the strongest power in the parlament and nothing is possible without the PS.

The CDS/PP isn't a Christian Democratic Party. I think Bono isn't right. The CDS/PP is a mixture of a ultraconservative catholic Party and a neo-liberal Party(like a ultra-FDP). I think that's not a good combination and this is the reason the never get more than 10%.

I speak not about things I haven't knowing. My father is from Portugal and I'm well informed about politics in Portugal. It's better like my English.

Hans, the current CDS leader, who is supposedly a member of its "liberal" wing, recently proposed abolishing co-payments in the National Health Service--note that these co-payments are something ridiculous as 10€ for a specialist visit, and half the people are already exempt anyway. If this is an "ultra-liberal" FDP analogue, then I'm sad for the state of liberalism in Europe.

Nobody believes when the CDS/PP make social promises. All of the politics in the last years was against the poor people and i don't see that is changing.

The leader of the CDS/PP, Paulo Portas, is a mixture between Guido Westerwelle  and a very bad parody of Jörg Haider. He wants to make a neoliberal + far-right-populist Politician, but he haven't the stature. He's more like a caricature. I can remember him as Defence minister and he wasn't a good one (i say only Iraq).

The economic politics of the CDS/PP  is far-right and in Social aspects it's a fascist party (abortion, drugs, law and order etc. etc.). In the political Matrix they have E 7,00; S 7,50. BTW The ultra-catholic wing makes not the politics i like, but the have more understanding for the wishes of normal people.

When you want that the political right can win elections in future, than you must hope the PSD make a comeback. Maybe that's happen, when they lose the next election and get a new leadership.

[Hans-im-Glück]

@Hashemite:

The monarchy Party, called PPM is maybe the right for you. Today it's a centrist green party


@Lewis:

I'm really no friend of the CDS/PP, but they are a pragmatic party and not like LAOS. The CDS/PP was some years in government and then the stupid ideas will be minimized ;-)

[Hans-im-Glück]

I'm really no friend of the CDS/PP, but they are a pragmatic party and not like LAOS. The CDS/PP was some years in government and then the stupid ideas will be minimized ;-)

Yes. I know. I was merely damning with faint praise.

But, well. The (very approximate) economic situation. The year 1974. The country size. The (only comparative) weakness of regional faultlines. A system of representation that is somewhat proportional but still quite clearly favors major parties. And now - even though it's a recent development - they both have a major center-left party, a major center-right party, two pretty far left parties to their left, of which the more traditionalist one is still called Communist. And a rightwing party to their right.

Yes that's true. Portugal and Greece have many things in common, in political things . There is one big difference. The main center partys, from the left and from the right aren't in "war" like in Greece. The Portuguese people are more "cool". They aren't so ideological fundamentalist like Greece. In Portugal there isn't this "political dynasty" system and in Portugal the people don't eat Gyros

[Hans-im-Glück]

It was a boring afternoon for me and I convert the result of European election for Portugal into mandates of a general election. I know there will be another result in September or October but I find it very interesting.

The hypothetical result 2009 (2005)

Açores     PSD/PPD 3 (+1); PS 2 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Aveiro      PSD/PPD 7 (+1); PS 4 (-4); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 2 (+1)
Beja        PSD/PPD 0 (NC); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 2 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Braga      PSD/PPD 8 (+1); PS 6 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 2 (+1)
Bragança      PSD/PPD 2 (NC); PS 2 (NC); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Castelo Branco      PSD/PPD 3 (+2); PS 2 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Coimbra    PSD/PPD 4 (+1); PS 4 (-2); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Évora      PSD/PPD 1 (+1); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Faro      PSD/PPD 3 (+1); PS 3 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Guarda      PSD/PPD 2 (NC); PS 2 (NC); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Leiria      PSD/PPD 5 (NC); PS 3 (-1); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (NC)
Lisboa      PSD/PPD 15 (+3); PS 15 (-8); B.E. 7 (+3); PCP-PEV 7 (+2); CDS/PP 4 (NC)

Madeira      PSD/PPD 5 (+2); PS 1 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Portalegre      PSD/PPD 1 (+1); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Porto      PSD/PPD 14 (+2); PS 14 (-6); B.E. 4 (+2); PCP-PEV 3 (+1); CDS/PP 3 (+1)

Santarém      PSD/PPD 4 (+1); PS 3 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (+1)
Setúbal      PSD/PPD 3 (NC); PS 5 (-3); B.E. 3 (+1); PCP-PEV 5 (+2); CDS/PP 1 (NC)
Viana do Castelo      PSD/PPD 4 (+2); PS 2 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (-1)

Vila Real      PSD/PPD 4 (+2); PS 1 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Viseu      PSD/PPD 5 (+1); PS 3 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (NC)

PORTUGAL      PSD/PPD 93 (+21); PS 75 (-45); B.E. 20 (+12); PCP-PEV 23 (+9); CDS/PP 15 (+3)

In the next general election there will be some changes of the mandates. Aveiro, Braga  and Porto maybe will win a seat. Lisboa, Castelo Branco and Bragança can loose one seat.

In the general election many people in smaller districts don't vote for the B.E or the PCP-PEV. They vote tactical, because they don't want to waste their vote. They vote then for the PS.

However, when the result is like the European Election, then I see no way for a strong government. PSD/PPD and CDS/PP have no majority and a coalition between PS, B.E. and PCP-PEV is very funny. I don't think that works. A minority government of PSD/PPD or PS isn't what I wish for Portugal.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The president of Portugal, Cavaco Silva, calls parliamentary elections  for September 27 . In October 11 there will be the municipal elections. His own party (PSD) wanted that both elections are on the same day. All other they should be on different days.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3&art_id=nw20090627171226635C324636

[Hans-im-Glück]

New polls (July) for Portugal by Marktest http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/s~1/id~e9.aspx

PS            35,5
PSD/PPD  32,2
BE            14,3  (WOW)
PCP-PEV    7,4
CDS/PP      4,4

Okay, Bono is right, the CDS is often underpolled, but 4,4 is very very bad. Only a miracle can bring them a better result like 2005.

The CNE (National Comission of Elections) announce yesterday the mandates for every district. http://www.cne.pt/dl.cfm?FileID=1305

3 districts gain one seat
Aveiro
Braga
Porto

3 districts lose one seat
Bragança
Castelo Branco
Lisboa

I think this helps the PSD a little bit, not more

[Hans-im-Glück]

Would the PS be willing to go into coalition with BE? What would that mean? Or is a grand Coalition more likely?

It isn't impossible, but I don't think it gives a coalition between PS and BE. More possible is a minority government of the PS, tolerated by the BE or somebody. A grand coalition is nearly impossible. Politically the differences are not more like the CDU/CSU ans the SPD in Germany. I think they are so big political opponents in Portugal that serious nobody think this comes.

In Portugal they have some problems to make coalitions. Except a PSD-CDS coalition no one would work. All parties make a hard  campaign against the PS and then one of them make a coalition with the PS. This isn't plausible, but in politics all things can happen. I see big problems to get a stable administration after the 27Th September.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Well, I certianly think a PS-BE coalition is in the works, as shown by a recent shenanigan where the Block leader went defending a minister from some PSD attacks. That said, there's no official word about it, which is natural given that they don't want to scare center voters with the idea that they might want to share power with Trotskists.

A grand coalition has been done before when the two parties hated each other more; but in this case, the only way it'll be done is without Socrates, since he has acted in such a way towards the opposition during his tenure that no one would want to govern with him. So, it'd have to be a PSD-led grand coalition. That said, it's not anyone's favorite resolution.

Bono, I don't know a PS-BE coalition is on the work, but it's the best of all alternatives when the result is like the last poll. The BE must be more pragmatic like in the last years and this is no bad thing, but the time for election records is then for a time over.

A grand coalition without Socrates is only possible, when the result of the PS extremely bad and the PSD-CDS have no majority. I don't see this. In the end the voters decide José Sócrates or Manuela Ferreira Leite will be  prime minister. This speaks more for the PS, because he looks more sympathetic . By the way, I was now over 2 weeks in Portugal and I don't see a election poster with Manuela Ferreira Leite. I think they now with her charisma you can only lose voters and not gain new voters.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I found the Portuguese Wahl-o-mat. I hope the translation is good. I must first it translate from Portuguese to German and then into English.
http://sic.sapo.pt/online/noticias/portugal2009/multimedia/bussola-eleitoral.htm
Click at Start and you can look what’s the best party for you in Portugal.

concorda totalmente =  totally agree
tende a concordar = tends to agree
neutro = neutral
tende a discordar = tend to disagree
discorda totalmente = totally disagree
sem opinião = No opinion

1.) The private sector should have a very limited role in the education

2) The financing of social security should be done exclusively with public money

3) For the sustainability of social security we must the increase in retirement age in the public service

4) The private sector should have a very limited role in the health system

5) For the modernization of public administration we need to reduce the number of employees

6) We should reduce taxes to increase the economic growth

7) The balance of public accounts can only be achieved by sacrificing important economic and social objectives

8 ) The nationalization of the banking should be seen as a last way out

9) The fight against inequality requires a greater contribution from individuals and businesses with higher incomes

10) In the Portuguese society the private sector is not sufficiently rewarded

11) Partnerships between private sector and the state are an efficient way to finance public investment

12) The current major public works, like the TGV, are a good option

13) We should deregulate markets whenever possible

14) For the growth of the economy is the relaxation of labour laws necessary

15) The government should directly intervene to regulate prices of essential goods

16) The decriminalization of abortion was positive

17) The marriage should remain exclusively a union between persons of different sexes

18) The decriminalization of soft drugs was a good measure

19) Should it be easier, wherever possible, to obtain a divorce?

20) The use of reproductive technologies, funded by the State should be forbidden to unmarried women

21) We must protect the environment, even at the expense of economic growth

22) Criminals should be punished more severely

23) Quotas for women in politics are essential to increase the quality of democracy in Portugal

24) At the current reduction in the share of immigrants is a good measure

25) There should be an extension of the areas where the European Union sets the policies

26) Portugal would be better off outside the EU than inside

27) European integration is a good thing

28) The ratification of the Lisbon Treaty as it stands, it is essential for the future of the European Union

In the next part you can rate the party leaders (Não conheço means I don’t know who this man is). Then you can the same do with the parties, These parts are not necessary to do.

Have fun

[Hans-im-Glück]

My Result: (only major parties)

PS    79,5%
B.E.  75,0%
CDU (PCP-PEV)   69,6%
PSD  48,2%
CDS-PP  41,1 %

[Hans-im-Glück]

Are these approval ratings for the various parties? 

yeah

[Hans-im-Glück]

PS 86

Hashemite, deep inside you are a socialist

[Hans-im-Glück]

PS 86

Hashemite, deep inside you are a socialist

I did the EU Profiler test for Portugal again, and omg.

PS 77.8
MEP 70
PH 69.4
MMS 68.4
MPT 68.4
BE 63.9
CDS 60
PSD 59.8
PCP 59.5
PPM 51.7

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal from Universidade Católica for RTP (Portuguese TV)
http://dn.sapo.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1358694 (in Portuguese)

PS    37%
PSD  35%
B.E.  11%
PCP-PEV   8%
CDS-PP  6 %

No majority, maybe a the PS and B.E. have together a slight majority

2005 was the result:

PS    45,05%  120  Mandates  (this was the best result ever for the PS)
PPD/PSD    28,70%  72    (the worst result since over 20 years)
PCP-PEV   7,56%  14    (the second worst result)
CDS-PP  7,26%  12    (the third worst result)
B.E.   6,38%  8   (the best result of all times for B.E.)

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal from Universidade Católica for RTP (Portuguese TV)
http://dn.sapo.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1358694 (in Portuguese)

PS    37%
PSD  35%
B.E.  11%
PCP-PEV   8%
CDS-PP  6 %

No majority, maybe a the PS and B.E. have together a slight majority

When the poll is the result, I have calculated the approximate distribution of seats would be like. The result is not good.

PS            93  mandates
PPD/PSD   92
B.E.           19
PCP-PEV   15
CDS-PP       7

When this is the result of the election, then only a great coalition is possible. PS and PPD/PSD with the same mandates, there will be no stable government.

When the PS under 1,5 % more votes, then the PPD/PSD will be more mandates in parlament. This makes all more difficult

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal from Eurosondagem for SIC (Private TV) and Rádio Renascença
http://ultimahora.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1400416 (in Portuguese)

PS    33,6 %
PSD  32,5 %
B.E.    9,6 %
PCP-PEV    9,4 %
CDS-PP  8,0 %

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal from Universidade Católica for RTP (Public TV) and Diário de Notícias (Journal)
http://ultimahora.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1401161(in Portuguese)

PS    38 %
PSD  32 %
B.E.    12 %
PCP-PEV    7 %
CDS-PP  7 %

With this result a coalition between PS and B. E. is possible.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for Portugal from Intercampus for TVI (Private TV) and Púbico (Journal) and Rádio Clube Português.
http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/politica/ps-sondagem-intercampus-tvi24-psd/1090099-4072.html (in Portuguese)

PS    32,9 %
PSD  29,7 %
B.E.    12 %
PCP-PEV    9,2 %
CDS-PP  7 %

Only 7,8 % of respondents don't know which party they want to vote. 71,8% have make their decision. 6,4 % don't know they go to the election. The rest don't want to vote.

[Hans-im-Glück]

One week to the election in Portugal. It's time for my prediction for every district


Açores   5 Mandates (n/c); PS 3 (n/c), PPD/PSD 2 (n/c), PCP-PEV0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0(n/c)

Aveiro     16 Mandates (+1);  PS 6 (-2), PPD/PSD 8 (+2), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1) Here it's possible that the last seat goes from the PSD to the B.E., but i don't think so

Beja         3 Mandates (n/c); PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 0 (n/c), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c),

Braga       19 Mandates (+1); PS 7 (-2), PPD/PSD 8 (+1), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 2 (+2) The last seat can go from the PCP to the PS, When the B.E. have a good result, then they have 2 seats here. Last time they need only a few votes to get 1 Mandate

Bragança       3 Mandates (-1); PS 1 (-1), PPD/PSD 2 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Castelo Branco    4 Mandates (-1);  PS 3 (-1), PPD/PSD 1 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c); 2005 here was a José Sócrates hype. This is his district and i don't know it's the same this time. Maybe the last seat goes from the PS to the PSD

Coimbra   10 Mandates (n/c); PS 5 (-1), PPD/PSD 4 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1)

Évora     3 Mandates (n/c); PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 0 (n/c), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c); The first seat is safe to the PS, but the 2 others are very close be teen the PS, PSD and the PCP. Also possible is 1-1-1 or 2-1-0

Faro     8 Mandates (n/c);  PS 4 (-2), PPD/PSD 3 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1); when the PCP have a very good result here, then they get the last seat from the PSD or the PS, but I don't think so

Guarda     4 Mandates (n/c);  PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 2 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Leiria     10 Mandates (n/c);  PS 3 (-1), PPD/PSD 5 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1)

Lisbon     47 Mandates (-1);  PS 19 (-4), PPD/PSD 13 (+1), PCP-PEV 4 (-1), CDS-PP 4 (n/c), B. E. 7 (+3); For the B.E. is the 7th seat not safe and the last seat from the PS and CDS are unsafe too.

Madeira     6 Mandates (n/c);  PS 2 (-1), PPD/PSD 4 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Portalegre     2 Mandates (n/c);  PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 0 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c); the seconds seat is close between the PS and the PSD

Porto     39 Mandates (+1);  PS 17 (-3), PPD/PSD 13 (+1), PCP-PEV 2 (n/c), CDS-PP 2 (n/c), B. E. 5 (+3), All last seats are not safe, PCP and CDS have normally no problem to get 2 Mandates

Santarém     10 Mandates (n/c);  PS 5 (-1), PPD/PSD 3 (n/c), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1), The last seat is very close between PS and PSD; the CDS  have a small chance for the last seat when their result in Santarém is better than average

Setúbal     17 Mandates (n/c);  PS 7 (-1), PPD/PSD 3 (n/c), PCP-PEV 3 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 3 (+1); The seat of the CDS isn't safe, Maybe the PSD and the PCP get tone seat from the CDS and B. E.

Viana do Castelo     6 Mandates (n/c);  PS 3 (n/c), PPD/PSD 3 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (-1), B. E. 0 (n/c) the last seat is close between the PS and the CDS

Vila Real     5 Mandates (n/c); PS 2 (-1), PPD/PSD 3 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Viseu     9 Mandates (n/c); PS 3 (-1), PPD/PSD 5 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (-1), B. E. 1 (+1); the last seat is very close between the B. E., the PS and the CDS. I think the B. E. have the better chance

PORTUGAL TOTAL

PS     98 (-22)
PSD   82 (+10)
PCP   13 (-1)
CDS   10 (-2)
B. E.   23 (+15)

The B. E. have many close seats and maybe the result of them is 20.

The result for the Portuguese Abroad will be the same like every time

Europe - PS 1, PSD 1; the last time the PS was close to get both seats, but this don't happen this time

Rest of the World - PSD 2; When the PS have a very good result here they can get the second seat

I one week we can see my prediction is good or not

[Hans-im-Glück]

No changes in the Polls. The PS have still a 3-7% lead. The B. E. will have their best result and maybe over 10%. In a Marktest poll they have 16%, but this can be only a joke

Here on this site is a overview of all polls for the election next sunday

http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/id~f8.aspx

[Hans-im-Glück]

No, the PPM have a own list and the MPT (center-right-green) is together with the Partido Humanista. I think they have no chance to come in the parlament

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new poll from Marktest for Diario Economico and TSF.PT
http://www.clipping.mediamonitor.pt/pdfTemp/etn_6790649_999999_0.pdf

PS     40,0
PSD   31,6
PCP     7,2
CDS   8,2
B. E.   9,0

The Projection  of Marktest for the Parlament is:

PS     105 (-16)
PSD   81 (+6)
PCP   13 (-1)
CDS   14 (+2)
B. E.   17 (+9)

The difference between PS and PSD is with 8,4% the highest since many month.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Tomorrow are the elections and the latest polls say that the  Socialist are the strongest party:

PS   38-40%
PSD 29-32%
B.E.  9-11%
PCP  7-8,5%
CDS  7-8,5%

It's lookin that after the election it gives a minority government of the PS. A coalition between PS and the Left Bloc B.E. is possible too, but i don't think it gives one.

[Hans-im-Glück]

in 34 minutes rtp will give a projection