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| | |-+  Will Mike Huckabee run in 2012
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Author Topic: Will Mike Huckabee run in 2012  (Read 3425 times)
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BushOklahoma
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« on: February 24, 2009, 07:04:37 pm »
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We've probably had this thread before, so forgive me.  Do you think Gov. Huckabee will make a second run in 2012?  If he does, when does he need to get "started" seeing that Gov. Romney has already basically started his campaign.
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2009, 07:13:08 pm »
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Yes, absolutely! Huckabee 2012!! Smiley
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2009, 07:26:10 pm »
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I think so and this time I could see him as being a much bigger favorite. Remember he was still seen as being unimportant and unidentifiable until about 2 weeks before Iowa. With an established base and name recognition he could go far, also he has a pretty good amount of Charisma. Out of the republicans I really do like him, even if our politics are way different.
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2009, 07:33:41 pm »
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Remember, Huckabee was the last Republican standing in the way of McCain's nomination.  It is conceivable that CultureKing is right that he would wield a bigger baseball bat in his race for the White House.  I honestly believe right now, still 2 years 10 months before Iowa, that it could come down to a race between Romney and Huckabee for the Republican nomination.  I wouldn't place either of them as a favorite over the other and either would be a formidable opponent to President Obama in the general.
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2009, 07:37:23 pm »
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yes, of course he will run.
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2009, 07:44:29 pm »
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Huckabee will most certainly run, but I doubt he gets any further than he did last time. Palin will gobble up the religious right and the economic conservatives will be in Romney's camp, unless someone like Mark Sanford enters the race, which would splinter things a bit more.

A Palin or Huckabee nomination would be a great way for me to vote Democrat for President, assuming we haven't completely collapsed as a nation come 2012.
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2009, 07:46:14 pm »
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Huckabee would be dismantled against Obama and Romney would be able to hold his own.  Romney has economic credentials Mormonism, Huckabee has Baptism.  Keep in mind that the only reason Huckabee was "the last one standing" was because he overstayed his welcome.  He had lost long before Romney had.  Romney was far ahead of him when he dropped out and would have continued to outperform Huckabee to the end.  Huckabee was lucky, not skilled.  He relied on his religion to get noticed as the only one still campaigning on social conservatism and skated along directly above the percentage of Baptists in each state.  All he has is one strength that happens to give him a nice floor in one chunk of the country.  He didn't improve upon that floor at all, proving that he was just the token religious right candidate.

So Huckabee wasn't as much the "last candidate in McCain's way" as he was an annoying chihuahua nipping at his ankles and yipping as he strolled across the finish line.

There is no such thing as "overstaying one's welcome". That is just your way of saying "dropping out later than when I wanted him to".
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2009, 08:02:28 pm »
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I've already stated my opinion that I think he's less likely to run than not.  I certainly don't consider him some sort of certainty on the level of Palin or Romney like everyone else on the forum does.
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2009, 10:44:31 pm »
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Huckabee is likely to bring his lightweight candidacy again into the public domain in yet another exercise in futility.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2009, 01:22:23 am »
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I don't think, for his reputation, that he should.  Whether he will is another question.

Mike Huckabee is an interesting guy.  He occasionally drops "tells" that lead me to think that he's playing the part of Mike Huckabee and that he'd be a fairly different person in person.
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2009, 01:38:41 am »
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I don't think, for his reputation, that he should.  Whether he will is another question.

Mike Huckabee is an interesting guy.  He occasionally drops "tells" that lead me to think that he's playing the part of Mike Huckabee and that he'd be a fairly different person in person.


Just because the elites don't like him doesn't mean that he doesn't suck.
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2009, 01:36:05 pm »
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Probably he will be one of the favorites for the nomination, but GOP will never win with another religious rightisit...
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2009, 01:39:21 pm »
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He pretty much said he would already so..... yeah, he'll run. Can't wait to see him do better than Romney though.
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2009, 03:00:37 pm »
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If Obama's approval ratings are strong, an Obama-Huckabee race would produce some fun results in urban and suburban counties.
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« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2009, 03:20:25 pm »
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If Obama's approval ratings are strong, an Obama-Huckabee race would produce some fun results in urban and suburban counties.

Not to mention the Mormon interior West, especially if he takes down Romney to get there.
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« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2009, 03:31:38 pm »
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C'mon guys... he won't be worried about Romney, he has to worry about Chai and Ho!

Kenneth the Page/Liz Lemon 2012!!!
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2009, 04:33:51 pm »
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What if he runs on a third-party ticket (let us say "Reform", if not some new party) --  as Romney/Palin win the GOP nominations? Huckabee will not be running as a racist as did Strom Thurmond in 1948 or as George Wallace in 1968, so he might get some support outside the South -- enough to leave some 38-34-28 splits in some states. Note the very pale colors that indicate such splits. I predict that he would get much of the white vote that Bill Clinton would have gotten in 1992 or 1996 or Carter in 1976 -- but not in the West, New England, or Great Lakes Region. 



The results look strange, but some have solid explanations. Obama largely holds onto the core Democratic states. He picks up Arizona, where neither Huckabee nor Romney has any obvious advantage. He holds onto Florida and Virginia, not part of the core of the South culturally or politically -- by thin margins. Virginia has drifted into the core of the Democratic Party.

Romney wins heavily-Mormon Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho by large margins, as one would expect and barely holds onto the Plains states (he wins NE-03, but wins Nebraska at large, which splits) but falls short of picking up Indiana and Ohio in part because Huckabee picks up the votes from the Evangelicals and Fundamentalists. Palin effectively delivers Alaska, but nothing else, to Romney.

Huckabee does something remarkable: he picks up all of the core South except Mississippi, takes North Carolina (barely), Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia. He comes close to picking off Texas and Oklahoma, but that would not have been enough to win the election.

In Florida, Obama wins enough of the Jewish, Latino, and black vote to barely edge out Huckabee and Romney (the latter doing better in Florida than in any other state in the South that he lost). Mississippi? Romney and Huckabee campaigned heavily in the South, split the white vote, and Obama wins the black vote.

Results in this scenario:

Obama          360
Huckabee     107
Romney          61


(note that I have not adjusted for re-apportionment of Congressional seats).

This is a catastrophic election for the GOP -- one in which it might be overtaken by the Reform Party.


« Last Edit: February 26, 2009, 06:22:52 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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CultureKing
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« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2009, 04:47:34 pm »
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This would be a complete blowout. I feel like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Oklahoma would be teh only sure Republican states. The vote splitting would give Obama a huge landslide (unless of course the first term goes very badly.)
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« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2009, 05:33:16 pm »
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He pretty much said he would already so..... yeah, he'll run. Can't wait to see him do better than Romney though.

So you are a Huckabee supporter as well?
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« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2009, 05:35:09 pm »
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Yes
SOMEONE has to stop Romney. Might as well be the person who ruined his chances in `08.
:/
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