1980 George H W Bush vs Jimmy Carter

[Lincoln Republican]

In 1980

Former U.N. Ambassador,  CIA Director, and Congressman George HW Bush defeats former California Governor Ronald Reagan to win the Republican Presidential nomination.  Bush picks Illinois Governor Jim Thompson for Vice President.

The Democrats nominate President Jimmy Carter after a bitter primary battle with Senator Edward Kennedy.  Carter keeps Vice President Walter Mondale on the ticket.

How does this 1980 election turn out?

Democrat
President Jimmy Carter (GA)
Vice President Walter Mondale (MN)

Republican
Former U.N. Ambassador, CIA Director, and Congressman George HW Bush (TX)
Governor James Thompson (IL)

How does this 1980 election turn out?

Use maps if you wish.             

[anvi]

Assuming that the national circumstances are about the same, the poor economy still hurts Carter and the American hostage situation in Iran bolsters people's confidence in Bush's national security experience.  Bush does not swing as many southern voters as Reagan did, but his choice of Thompson as VP helps him win in the midwest and rustbelt.  The result:

Bush/Thompson  413
Carter/Mondale   125

[Antonio the Sixth]

Carter could not win. But Bush didn't have Reagan's charisma. So, a bit more close : Bush wins by about 7% and 361 E.V.

[GLPman]

Carter could not win. But Bush didn't have Reagan's charisma. So, a bit more close : Bush wins by about 7% and 361 E.V.

Yeah, I can't see any feasible path to victory for Carter in 1980. He'd probably do better, but still get his rear end handed to him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Carter could not win. But Bush didn't have Reagan's charisma. So, a bit more close : Bush wins by about 7% and 361 E.V.

Agreed.
The only changes I would make, give Wisconsin to Bush and Delaware to Carter.

[hcallega]

what might be more interesting is how a Bush vs. Kennedy scenario would go down.

[bhouston79]

Bush would win, but it would be closer than in real life.  And with Anderson in the race, Bush would have recieved only a plurality of the vote.

Electoral Vote
Bush    358
Carter 180

Popular Vote
Bush        49.1%
Carter      43.0%
Anderson   6.2%
Others       1.7%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[Phony Moderate]

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George H.W. Bush - 291

Jimmy Carter - 247