HI-01

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Name a half-decent candidate the HI GOP has (besides Lingle as she isn't going to run.)

BTW FL-01 is not more Republican than HI-01 is Democratic. I doubt McCain got over 70% in FL-01.

[Lunar]

All I said was one of the factors that COULD make the race competitive.  If I've said anything besides that, I was being stupid (and note, nothing has changed in the race since then so I'm not using hindsight).

Obviously if the Democrats were to nominate the Mayor of Honolulu, it wouldn't matter if he were white or an one-armed albino midget, he's be very, very likely to win.

If I were to say the race against Dodd "maybe" could be competitive, and it turns out Dodd cruises to an easy victory, you do have enough cells in your body to figure out why I'm not proven wrong, right?  If I'm making a prediction I'll avoid the qualifiers "maybe" "potentially" "could" and "possibly" "perhaps" "if" and such things, depending on context.  It's really not difficult at all to figure out what my predictions are and what my speculation about variables are.

Sorry for going to town on you (I actually edited this post down a bit to remove more cuss words) but I've had a long night and your holier-than-thou attitude simultaneously while horribly twisting my words in order to make me look retarded has me internet-aggravated. 

I get a lot of early information about races, and when things are still vague I like to speculate on what could happen, but in no way are those predictions.

[Gravis Marketing]

BTW FL-01 is not more Republican than HI-01 is Democratic. I doubt McCain got over 70% in FL-01.

Old PVI was R+19 vs. D+7. Now, Bush-Cheney overperformed in Hawaii in '04; however, the '08 results were waaaaay more skewed by Obama's coming from Hawaii.

(But then again, McCain was military.)

[Former Moderate]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

Maybe a nonwhite military man during a Republican administration.

Republicans can only win a seat like this if they're out of power.  Having a GOP held House or a GOP President is a massive albatross on the neck of a GOP candidate in a district like this.

[Lunar]

Djou will need to go above and beyond the call of duty in terms of localizing this race.  The more "Obama" gets mentioned the worse he'll do.

I'm not sure how much the residents are paying attention to the national scene, but I wonder how much Cantor's uniform "no" votes affect perceptions of moderate GOP candidate's pledges to actually be moderate.  I mean, he organized almost a complete GOP blackout of a cable television bill that passed the Senate unanimously (not that anyone noticed).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Djou wins, it'll only be if the GOP wins a landslide and takes the House anyway, so it won't really matter.

I will make an outlandish prediction and say it'll be a primary battle between Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

All I said was one of the factors that COULD make the race competitive.  If I've said anything besides that, I was being stupid (and note, nothing has changed in the race since then so I'm not using hindsight).

Obviously if the Democrats were to nominate the Mayor of Honolulu, it wouldn't matter if he were white or an one-armed albino midget, he's be very, very likely to win.

If I were to say the race against Dodd "maybe" could be competitive, and it turns out Dodd cruises to an easy victory, you do have enough cells in your body to figure out why I'm not proven wrong, right?  If I'm making a prediction I'll avoid the qualifiers "maybe" "potentially" "could" and "possibly" "perhaps" "if" and such things, depending on context.  It's really not difficult at all to figure out what my predictions are and what my speculation about variables are.

Sorry for going to town on you (I actually edited this post down a bit to remove more cuss words) but I've had a long night and your holier-than-thou attitude simultaneously while horribly twisting my words in order to make me look retarded has me internet-aggravated. 

I get a lot of early information about races, and when things are still vague I like to speculate on what could happen, but in no way are those predictions.

See though, that's exactly the type of nonsense J. J. was so (rightfully) criticized over. It's inanity with an excuse. Obama might lose white Democrats. Hillary might have a superdelegate stampede to nullify the primaries. There might be a massive Bradley Effect. Sound familiar? Dodd losing or the Democrats losing this seat aren't too far off from the ridiculousness of the aforementioned.

[Lunar]

I don't think when I speculate I'm necessarily talking about absurd probabilities though.  If a set of events were to happen (the Democrats nominate a non-establishment white guy, the Democrats have a bad year, and Djou runs a really good campaign), then the seat could be competitive.  Otherwise it won't be.  Now that the actual likely Democratic candidates have emerged, as I listed above (gasp, I'm following this race), it's becoming far less likely of a GOP pickup.  It'll still be an interesting race to watch, even if it's a blowout.

J.J. made solid predictions of what would happen. I'm simply speculating about possible conditions where a race could  be competitive, when it most likely won't be.  I mean, what else is there do do in a district so obviously Democratic besides speculate about a perfect storm of conditions where the race could be competitive?

I have a little personal experience with Hawaii, my gf's Mom repeatedly refers to me as her "Haole boyfriend," hence my usage of the term, for the record.  Not that it matters.

[I'm Not a Witch]

Okay first of all, Lunar and Fake Yellow Light needs to get a room haha.

Old PVI was R+19 vs. D+7. Now, Bush-Cheney overperformed in Hawaii in '04; however, the '08 results were waaaaay more skewed by Obama's coming from Hawaii.

(But then again, McCain was military.)
[/quote]

Good point. How well Bush and Cheney did in this blue state bastion has baffled me. I know that 2004 was a big Republican year because of all the Bible thumpers and religious right-wing nut jobs and hicks that turned out to support Bush because they injected gay marriage into the election but I thought Hawaii was a fairly progressive state that wouldn't vote for these types. I expected Kerry to get at least into the 60-percents in Hawaii but alas he didn't. Interesting.

As it pertains to HI-01, I think hell will freeze over before a Republican holds this seat. Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the nation with an extremely slim bench there. As someone previously mentioned, there are only six (out of 51 total) Republicans in the Hawaii House of Representatives and only two Republicans in the Hawaii State Senate (out of 25 total). Heck, the only Republican from Hawaii I know of is Gov. Linda Lingle and I'm sure she will challenge Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) and will probably be crushed which will pretty much turn Hawaii into another New England where Republicans are completely shut off. Maybe the Republicans can get Secretary of State James Aiona (R) to run for the HI-01 seat, but I still see it going to the Democrats regardless of who the candidate is.

[bgwah]

Okay first of all, Lunar and Fake Yellow Light needs to get a room haha.

Old PVI was R+19 vs. D+7. Now, Bush-Cheney overperformed in Hawaii in '04; however, the '08 results were waaaaay more skewed by Obama's coming from Hawaii.

(But then again, McCain was military.)

Good point. How well Bush and Cheney did in this blue state bastion has baffled me. I know that 2004 was a big Republican year because of all the Bible thumpers and religious right-wing nut jobs and hicks that turned out to support Bush because they injected gay marriage into the election but I thought Hawaii was a fairly progressive state that wouldn't vote for these types. I expected Kerry to get at least into the 60-percents in Hawaii but alas he didn't. Interesting.

As it pertains to HI-01, I think hell will freeze over before a Republican holds this seat. Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the nation with an extremely slim bench there. As someone previously mentioned, there are only six (out of 51 total) Republicans in the Hawaii House of Representatives and only two Republicans in the Hawaii State Senate (out of 25 total). Heck, the only Republican from Hawaii I know of is Gov. Linda Lingle and I'm sure she will challenge Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) and will probably be crushed which will pretty much turn Hawaii into another New England where Republicans are completely shut off. Maybe the Republicans can get Secretary of State James Aiona (R) to run for the HI-01 seat, but I still see it going to the Democrats regardless of who the candidate is.
[/quote]

Hawaii tends to be pro-incumbent.

[SamInTheSouth]

Djou will need to go above and beyond the call of duty in terms of localizing this race.  The more "Obama" gets mentioned the worse he'll do.

That all depends on the public's opinion of Obama next year.

[Nhoj]

Djou will need to go above and beyond the call of duty in terms of localizing this race.  The more "Obama" gets mentioned the worse he'll do.

That all depends on the public's opinion of Obama next year.

this is hawaii not some place where obama has a real chance of becoming unpopular.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

Maybe a nonwhite military man during a Republican administration.

Republicans can only win a seat like this if they're out of power.  Having a GOP held House or a GOP President is a massive albatross on the neck of a GOP candidate in a district like this.

Uh, this is Hawaii. They only vote for Republicans when it's unpatriotic not to.

[Lunar]

Djou will need to go above and beyond the call of duty in terms of localizing this race.  The more "Obama" gets mentioned the worse he'll do.

That all depends on the public's opinion of Obama next year.

this is hawaii not some place where obama has a real chance of becoming unpopular.

Exactly, this isn't frickin Missouri

[Holmes]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/former-rep.-case-to-run-for-hawaii-seat-2009-03-28.html

Shocked?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/former-rep.-case-to-run-for-hawaii-seat-2009-03-28.html

Shocked?

Not at all, but it still makes me want to barf.

[Lunar]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/former-rep.-case-to-run-for-hawaii-seat-2009-03-28.html

Shocked?

Le sigh.  He does bounce around a lot, doesn't he?  Does he live in HI-01 now?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/former-rep.-case-to-run-for-hawaii-seat-2009-03-28.html

Shocked?

Le sigh.  He does bounce around a lot, doesn't he?  Does he live in HI-01 now?

He lived in HI-01 when he ran for HI-02, so why not have it the other way around?

[Lunar]

Did he promise to move to HI-02 as politicians (McClintock, Tedisco, etc) often do?

[Sibboleth]

Ed Case is one.

[Kevinstat]

Republican Pat Saiki represented HI-01 from 1987-1991.  (I'm not sure how different that district was back then from the current HI-01, although the Almanac of American Politics 2008 states, "The Democratic Legislature made minor and politically insignificant changes to the district lines in 2002.")  Republican Orson Swindle, a Marine Corps Pilot and Vietnam POW, held Abercrombie to a 54%-43% win in 1994 and only a 50%-46% win in 1996 when Bill Clinton led Bob Dole 57% to 34% in the district.  Abercrombie has gotten 62% of the vote or greater in every general election (at least) since then, however.  I agree that it is a strongly Democratic district, but it's not as if Republicans have never come close here (a 4% margin less than 13 years ago).

[Vasall des Midas]

Republican Pat Saiki represented HI-01 from 1987-1991.

Which ties in well with what I was saying.

Republican Orson Swindle, a Marine Corps Pilot and Vietnam POW, held Abercrombie to a 54%-43% win in 1994 and only a 50%-46% win in 1996 when Bill Clinton led Bob Dole 57% to 34% in the district.

Interesting. Something must have been up with that '96 race.

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/convention96/regions/west/rohter_essay.html

includes a pre-campaign rundown on that race... that doesn't make you think it could end up this close.

Swindle went on to be GWBush's FTC Commissioner.

[pragmatic liberal]

"Swindle" is a fairly unfortunate last name for a politician.