Detroit Free Press says Bush +2 LV/Kerry +2 RV in MI

[Sam Spade]

http://www.freep.com/news/politics/fppoll30e_20040930.htm

Topline numbers:

Bush 50, Kerry 48 LV
Kerry 48, Bush 46 RV

[A18]

I believe my own prediction more and more each day

50% Bush
48% Kerry

+/- 4

52% Bush
46% Kerry

48% Bush
50% Kerry

[CARLHAYDEN]

http://www.freep.com/news/politics/fppoll30e_20040930.htm

Topline numbers:

Bush 50, Kerry 48 LV
Kerry 48, Bush 46 RV

Thanks Sam.

I've been telling people for weeks that Michigan is not secure for Kerry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which firm does that paper's polls?

[The Vorlon]

http://www.freep.com/news/politics/fppoll30e_20040930.htm

Topline numbers:

Bush 50, Kerry 48 LV
Kerry 48, Bush 46 RV

Thanks Sam.

I've been telling people for weeks that Michigan is not secure for Kerry.

I officially award Carl 2 brownie points ***

*** subject to one more confirming poll

[WalterMitty]

remember just a couple of months ago when the kerry supporters thought that virginia and louisiana were battleground states?

bad strategy, eh?  but i guess hindsight is 20/20

[elcorazon]

remember just a couple of months ago when the kerry supporters thought that virginia and louisiana were battleground states?

bad strategy, eh?  but i guess hindsight is 20/20

This is starting to bug me.  I actually agree that trying to win states like VA & LA were not the best strategy, however, I still believe if Kerry had run a strong campaign, and been a strong candidate, so that he were ahead by 4-6% in the polls, states like VA & LA & probably even NC would have been close.  NC seems as close as OH right now.  That could indicate something.  The reason that many states that looked like Kerry could hold are close or even leaning Bush is that Bush leads nationally right now.  If Kerry brings the national race back to even, states like Michigan, Washington & Pennsylvania (hopefully) will begin to look more solid for Kerry again, while states like OH, OR, WI & NM will go back to being real battlegrounds, if they aren't right now.

Kerry has 2 challenges ahead; one is to make the case to the country that he's an acceptable alternative to Bush; the other is to get his act together on the ground in the right states that he has a shot in to edge out Bush (FL, OR, WI, NM, NV, MN, IA, etc.).  He has no chance if he doesn't do the first one... most likely tonight.

[Dave from Michigan]

I'm surprised Michigan has got this close But I'm not sure Bush can win Michigan


By county

Wayne county (EXCLUDING DETROIT)
Bush 54%
Kerry 40%

No way Bush is up that much here

Oakland county
Bush 51%
Kerry 43%

Macomb
Bush 53%
Kerry 38%

Detroit
Kerry 88%
Bush 11%

These county numbers seem off I don't think Kerry losing wayne county minus detroit by 14% but only losing oakland by 8%.   and Bush up 15% in Macomb I doubt it

Al Gore won
Wayne without Detroit 54-45 I think
and Macomb and oakland by 7,000 and 8,000 votes

[Dave from Michigan]

also

Men -

Bush 50%
Kerry 44%

women-

Bush42%
Kerry 52%

Black
Kerry 94%
Bush   2%

white

Bush 51%
Kerry 43%

[Friar]

Relax, kids

Michigan is safe Kerry

ACT closed shop 2 weeks ago and moved to OH and FL. It will be miracle if Bush comes within 6 points of Kerry in MI.

[Dave from Michigan]

Relax, kids

Michigan is safe Kerry

ACT closed shop 2 weeks ago and moved to OH and FL. It will be miracle if Bush comes within 6 points of Kerry in MI.

Bush most likely will come within 6% maybe 3%

[CARLHAYDEN]

Actually, I see Bush up in the end by 2.7 points in Michigan.

[A18]

You're calling the race up to the tenth of a percentage point?

If that comes true, I will be scared.

[CARLHAYDEN]

We'll see in November just how close I am to predicting the actual result.

Suggest plus/minus about a point.