OK Gov 2010: Another candidate has announced
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  OK Gov 2010: Another candidate has announced
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« on: February 28, 2009, 07:13:21 PM »

The first Republican candidate has announced their candidacy for the Governor of Oklahoma.  Congresswoman Mary Fallin, a former Lt Governor, has officially announced her candidacy for the seat being vacated by Gov. Brad Henry.  The only other candidate to my knowledge that has officially announced is Democratic Lt Governor Jari Askins.

I'm still throwing my support behind Lt Gov Askins, but I wouldn't be too ashamed of a Fallin Administration.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2009, 07:28:48 PM »

Fallin is about as conservative as they get, and that's kind of rare for a woman.  I don't particularly care, especially since her house seat is safe for the GOP.
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Meeker
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2009, 07:31:57 PM »

The Attorney General announced some time ago.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2009, 07:34:18 PM »

 

It's a real estate agent vs. a high school gym teacher.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2009, 09:37:29 PM »

The Attorney General announced some time ago.

Oh yeah, you're right.  Democratic Atty Gen. Drew Edmondson has also announced, which gives us 2 Democrats and 1 Republican in the race so far.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2009, 09:44:47 PM »

In a near inevitable Askins vs. Fallin matchup, I wonder how the county map will look like.  Fallin will probably break 60% in her own district, but likely be massacred in Eastern Oklahoma/Little Dixie.  Fallin better set up an infrastructure in Tulsa and at least be competitive in Eastern Oklahoma, or she is toast.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2009, 09:56:31 PM »

In a near inevitable Askins vs. Fallin matchup, I wonder how the county map will look like.  Fallin will probably break 60% in her own district, but likely be massacred in Eastern Oklahoma/Little Dixie.  Fallin better set up an infrastructure in Tulsa and at least be competitive in Eastern Oklahoma, or she is toast.

I agree that Askins is the stronger candidate at this point in the ball game.  Its still really early, 20 months until the general election, but Fallin has some ground to make up.  The thing going for her is she was a popular Lt Governor under Frank Keating and Brad Henry.  Unfortunately for her, Jari Askins is also just as popular, if not moreso, than Fallin.  Plus, the only reason Fallin got the House seat in OK-5 is Ernest Istook became the sacrificial lamb for the Republicans in the 2006 Gubernatorial Race against Brad Henry, otherwise, Fallin would probably be out of elected office at this point.  I think Fallin will get in the upper 50's in her district, but like you said, she will get slaughtered in the Eastern part of the state.  OK-2 is located in the Eastern part of the state and the Democrat, Dan Boren, just got re-elected with 70% of the vote.  OK-1 is in the Tulsa/Bartlesville area and re-elected its Republican Congressman, John Sullivan, with 66% of the vote.  Fallin could capture about 58-60% of the vote in OK-3, but that covers nearly the Northwestern 1/2 of the state and doesn't have near the population that the other four districts have.  OK-4 could go for Fallin by 55% which encompasses the southern part of Oklahoma and part of southern Oklahoma County.  I have a funny feeling that OK-2 could elect Askins all by themselves.  I'm giving Askins an early 55-45 advantage, or in that vicinity.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2009, 10:09:49 PM »

At this point in the game, Fallin should just be terrified that she will get 52-48 or something like that in Tulsa county.  A Republican needs to get all of the votes that they can get in the two major Oklahoma counties.  I think that Fallin will do fine in Oklahoma county, and I don't think she should be too afraid of OK-02, since Coburn got horrible numbers there, and still won statewide by 11 points.



It's kind of premature to talk about the campaign since it's not 100% sure that Fallin will even win the nomination and some deus ex machina could pop up. 
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RBH
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2009, 01:17:26 AM »

McCurtain (the blue county in the right corner) won't go Rep in a Gubernatorial election.

Also, you have Fallin winning Stephens county.

Jeri Askins is from Stephens County.

Some reference maps

2006 General (LT Gov): https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=0
2006 Primary: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=1
2006 Runoff: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2006&f=0&off=6&elect=3

Askins should fare pretty well in SW OK.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2009, 01:18:42 AM »

I didn't create that map.  That is the map of Coburn vs. Carson in 2004.
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RBH
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2009, 01:41:23 AM »

oh.. ok then..
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Aizen
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« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2009, 02:03:14 AM »

so this ugly fat sack of crap is jeri askins




MAN THE HARPOONS!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2009, 02:45:08 AM »

I suspect Fallin is the odds-on favorite for the GOP nom.

I'm still trying to figure out the preliminary conclusions of our "experts" in a Fallin-Askins matchup given that Fallin got 57% in 2002 when running for Lt. Governor (a tad under the Inhofe % in the same race) with the GOP losing the Governor's race, whereas Askins got 54% in 2006 when running for Lt. Governor on the back of a Henry landslide.

But then again, maybe I don't really know politics at all.  Quite possible.  Anyway, still a long way to go before the actual race...
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RBH
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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2009, 02:54:42 AM »

Incumbents sometimes receive higher percentages than non-incumbents.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2009, 03:00:52 AM »

Incumbents sometimes receive higher percentages than non-incumbents.

Yes, thanks for pointing out my screwup in that regard.  Ugh.  Long evening...

Still, the point is this:  When you have a candidate who has won two statewide elections fairly convincingly against one who has won one statewide election fairly convincingly, that sounds like a decently even race.

Other factors: 1) Oklahoma's Democratic party is respectable; 2) Obama will be a factor on the ballot.

Anyway, if forced, I know where I would put the race.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2009, 03:07:15 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2009, 03:09:48 AM by Lunar »

I'm always amazed when I take a look at this race and realize Oklahoma has a better Democratic bench than a lot of states Obama won. 

Sigh.

On the other hand, glancing at the map [maybe I missed something, I don't care], there's only one state out of fifty that has no Democrats representing it in congress.  And that one state, Wyoming, has a Democratic governor and had a competitive at-large district in the last election.  So these things can surprise you.

The bench would be very competitive indeed if Obama wasn't in the WH
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2009, 06:05:20 PM »

Word is is that Former Congressman JC Watts, Jr (R). is pondering a run for the office, as well.  He was immensely popular during his time in Congress, so he would probably be considered the front runner for the GOP nomination.  He, moreso than Fallin, could pose a big threat to the Democrats keeping the seat.
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