What does Edwards need to do to stay viable
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 07:06:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  What does Edwards need to do to stay viable
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What does Edwards need to do to stay viable  (Read 2181 times)
California Dreamer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 26, 2004, 04:55:05 AM »

During the Primaries each candidate has had various make or break points to stay viable.

Each had 'test states'
Gephardt: Iowa
Lieberman: Delaware
Dean: Wisconsin
Clark: Oklahoma then Tennessee
Edwards: N. Carolina and Huh?

Edwards has finally got his 'one on one' but now he cant keep saying he is viable with 'strong showings'. He is trailing badly in both wins and delegates.

He has made Ohio and Georgia his prime targets for Super Tuesday (and NY to a lesser degree).

His goal is to 'survive' Super Tuesday with a good enough showing to take him to Southern Tuesday and then Illinois.

So what is 'good enough' for him to stay viable?
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2004, 08:04:06 AM »

He's really got to win 3.
Logged
ilikeverin
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,410
Timor-Leste


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2004, 12:07:42 PM »

I'd say he's also targeted MN.  He's campaigned here already, and he's stopping again tomorrow!  Kerry campaigned here yesterday.  For once, our caucus is competitive!  \/\/007!

Any way...

I'd say he'd have to get Ohio & Georgia, and get a fairly strong showing in MN.  Maybe if he won all three the media could actually give him attention... wow...

((I'm at school right now Grin))
Logged
TheWildCard
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,529
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2004, 12:32:15 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2004, 12:37:32 PM by TheWildCard »

He needs a  win very badly...

But I can see him staying in until Southern Tuesday no matter the outcome of this week. Because ya know the south is his backyard.

To stay viable though he needs to win one or two states.
Logged
JohnFKennedy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,448


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2004, 12:36:20 PM »

I'd say Georgia and another win or possibly two.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,150


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2004, 12:40:50 PM »


Edwards needs to win Georgia to stay in the race for another week; if he doesn't win there, he would lose every state on March 9th, and that would just be embarassing.  

In order to actually be a serious contender (sweep March 9th, make Illinois a toss-up), Edwards has to win three.  Two would be Georgia and Ohio.  The third would be Minnesota, Maryland, or possibly New York (doubtful after the NY Times endorsement of Kerry).  Edwards could then claim an even split of the non-New England states.
Logged
classical liberal
RightWingNut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2004, 12:43:46 PM »


...Edwards could then claim an even split of the non-New England states.


He would have split like 15 states with 4 wins?
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,150


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2004, 01:31:13 PM »


...Edwards could then claim an even split of the non-New England states.


He would have split like 15 states with 4 wins?

I meant that he would have split the 6 states voting on Super Tuesday outside of New England.
Logged
Inmate Trump
GWBFan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,022


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2004, 02:02:44 PM »

I'd say the only state Edwards has a chance of winning this coming Tuesday is Georgia.  Everywhere else, Kerry just leads by too much so close to the election (that can change in a few days' time though...).  Even here, in Georgia, Kerry leads Edwards by about 10 or so percentage points.

So I would say...If Edwards doesn't win Georgia or anywhere else next Tuesday, he'd be doing his party a favor by dropping out.  The longer he stays in, the worse it is for the Dems in November.  The longer the primary battle, the worse it is for your party.  Winning South Carolina and coming strong in Wisconsin isn't a whole lot to brag about.........
Logged
TomC
TCash101
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,973


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2004, 05:20:28 PM »


So I would say...If Edwards doesn't win Georgia or anywhere else next Tuesday, he'd be doing his party a favor by dropping out.  The longer he stays in, the worse it is for the Dems in November.  The longer the primary battle, the worse it is for your party.  Winning South Carolina and coming strong in Wisconsin isn't a whole lot to brag about.........

In disagree. As long as they aen't tearing each other apart- and theyre nowhere close to that- a competetive primary is good. We keep getting headlines. Kerry keeps winning and looking stronger and stronger.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,150


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2004, 05:22:57 PM »

American Research Group just released a poll of Maryland voters, with Kerry up 42-35.  According to them, MD is even closer than Georgia.  

And they didn't even poll me!
Logged
classical liberal
RightWingNut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2004, 06:50:44 PM »

So Edwards only needs to win over 3.5% of Kerry's support to tie the race?
Logged
MAS117
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,206
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2004, 08:05:06 PM »

I think that Kerry is so far ahead in the way of delegates Edwards can't catch up... Kerry today reached the 200 mark for superdelegates which is almost as much was Sen. Edwards has in total. I think that the Edwards needs to win Georgia or Ohio but I think he should focus on GA. Kerry has a strong lead in NY, and CA which should put away the nomination for him. Edwards is losing because he refuses to attack Kerry, making himself on the short list for the Vice-Presidential spot on the ticket...
Logged
California Dreamer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2004, 08:07:11 PM »

I think that he needs to win them both and win them well.

I predict he will lose Ohio and 'tie' in Georgia

Elsewhere he will get trounced


Latest Polls for the three states Edwards is trying in:

Georgia / February 23-24, 2004
John Kerry    45%
John Edwards    37%
Al Sharpton    4%
Dennis Kucinich    1%
Other    2%
Undecided    11%

margin of error: 4%
source: American Research Group



Ohio / February 22-24, 2004
John Kerry    47%
John Edwards    26%
Dennis Kucinich    11%
Al Sharpton    1%
Other    3%
Undecided    12%

margin of error: 4%
source: American Research Group
 


New York / February 22-24, 2004
John Kerry    54%
John Edwards    21%
Al Sharpton     8%
Dennis Kucinich    2%
Other    4%
Undecided    11%

margin of error: 4%
source: American Research Group
 



Even if he does win both GA and OH the gap in delegates will be monumental. Assuming he gets 40-50% of super Tuesday Delegates he will have to get 75% of delegates in Southern Tusday and future primaries.  I just dont see that happening.



 

Logged
Inmate Trump
GWBFan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,022


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2004, 10:58:07 PM »


So I would say...If Edwards doesn't win Georgia or anywhere else next Tuesday, he'd be doing his party a favor by dropping out.  The longer he stays in, the worse it is for the Dems in November.  The longer the primary battle, the worse it is for your party.  Winning South Carolina and coming strong in Wisconsin isn't a whole lot to brag about.........

In disagree. As long as they aen't tearing each other apart- and theyre nowhere close to that- a competetive primary is good. We keep getting headlines. Kerry keeps winning and looking stronger and stronger.

But see.... the longer the primary battle lasts, the more money the candidates have to pump into their campaigns to keep their supporters energized and bring new supporters in.  The more money they have to use to put out campaign ads.  The more money they have to use to knock their opponents down.  The more time they spend focusing on each other rather than on their primary target in the general election.  The longer the primary, the less money the eventual winner has post-nomination.

True, the continued media attention is good.  But once the primary race is finished, that fades away.... And also remember that Kerry has not yet been fully examined by the media.  All he's getting from the media now is winning so many states back-to-back.  His voting record (which is outrageously liberal and out of touch with the mainstream) has yet to be viewed by the majority of voters.  If Kerry actually DID win, he'd be the first liberal to win the White House since....since when?

Look at Bob Dole.  He led Clinton in polls this time in 1996, just as Kerry leads Bush now.  But as soon as the Republican primary was finished, and Dole declared winner, Dole had NO money and little chance of putting up a good race against Clinton--and at the other end, Clinton faced no primary challenge within his party--his warchest of dollars was enormous, making him virtually unbeatable.  In the end, Clinton trounced Dole, easily.  And keep in mind, Bush has more money in his reelection campaign right now, in February, than did Clinton in November of 1996.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.04 seconds with 13 queries.