New York and Illinios seperating from New York City and Chicago.

[chinaglenn]

Howdy!

I am interested to know how New York and Illinois voted outside their largest cities of NYC and Chicago?

I don't like the electoral college and think it should be abolished. One man, one vote. Under the current scheme it is almost a waste of time in a Presidential year for someone in Utah to vote Democratic,  while it is a waste for someone in Massachuttes to vote Republican.

If there has to be an electoral college, I would rework it. Instead of a state "winner take allsystem, it should be a done by congressional district.

I think in Illinios and New York are too weighed down by their largest cities. New york State is interesting in that even though it has a large population overall, outside of NYC is actually a very rural place. The next largest city is Buffalo which has 292,000 people. Illinios is also a rural state with no second large city to counterbalance.

My state of Tennessee is fairly balanced. East Tennessee is Republican, West Tennessee is Democratic, while middle Tennessee and Nashville are somewhat in the middle


I have long been an advocate of allowing large cities to

[Verily]

New York state without the NY metropolitan area voted around 56% for Obama. (Removing NYC means the rest of Long Island has to go, too, and the other suburbs should then follow suit.)

Illinois outside of Cook County voted about 53% for Obama. Removing the suburban counties makes it closer, but even removing the entire Chicago MSA would leave Obama marginally ahead.

[Lunar]

So, Illinois sans Chicago = Indiana?

[© tweed]

So, Illinois sans Chicago = Indiana?

that analogy/equation has always been drawn

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, Illinois sans Chicago = Indiana?

that analogy/equation has always been drawn

And it's very very far from accurate, and I'd say is only borderline not idiotic.

[Verily]

Just an estimate, but it looks like Obama won Illinois sans the Chicago MSA about 50.5-49, or about 25,000 votes out of 2,200,000. The map looks like a Democratic blowout, though; interesting. Maybe my mental math is off.

[Smash255]

One problem is obviously Gerrymandered districts, and another is that Democratic strength tends to be more highly concentrated.  For example in some districts, especially heavily minority districts you will see a Democrat take 85-90% + of the vote, where the GOP districts you might see going into the low to mid 70's.  What that basically means is in a 50/50 race the GOP might have a bit of a structural advantage going by district because they may have more districts which are marginally in there direction due to some very heavily urban Democratic districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

To explain why the Illinois/Indiana comparison is so dumb:

1: Where in downstate Illinois is the equivalent of Indianapolis complete with the uber-GOP suburbs?

2:




Let's pretend Cook County doesn't exist. Do these maps look similar then? (Also consider if Cook didn't exist Lake wouldn't either.)

[Lunar]

Obviously you're going to get a different makeup of major cities, different suburbs, etc. trying to compare any two states.  Obviously the comparison between Southern Illinois and Indiana isn't an attempt to say that they're exactly the same.

[Meeker]

Cook County isn't entirely Chicago though, right? And a very small part of Chicago is in DuPage.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm not certain, but I think that upstate New York voted Democratic for the last 5 Presidential elections.

[Smash255]

Cook County isn't entirely Chicago though, right? And a very small part of Chicago is in DuPage.

Correct, Chicago makes up a little more than half of Cook county (54%).  A very small portion of Chicago is in dupage, but it is mostly commercial area with a very small population (only 230).  The suburban areas of Cook County are also fairly Democratic (though obviously not as strong as Chicago).  Kerry won suburban Cook by about 19%, Obama won it by much more.

[cinyc]

Cook County isn't entirely Chicago though, right? And a very small part of Chicago is in DuPage.

Correct, Chicago makes up a little more than half of Cook county (54%).  A very small portion of Chicago is in dupage, but it is mostly commercial area with a very small population (only 230).  The suburban areas of Cook County are also fairly Democratic (though obviously not as strong as Chicago).  Kerry won suburban Cook by about 19%, Obama won it by much more.

Where do these people live?  I thought the only portion of Chicago in DuPage was part of O'Hare Airport.  Does the city line extend to one side of North York/Elmhurst Road or Irving Park Road or something?

[anvi]

Voting patterns shift in every election.  It's certainly true that downstate Illinois and downstate Indiana looked quite different from the maps of 2004 above.  But the 2008 results show an interesting similarity.  Obama got more than 40% of the vote in a vast majority of the downstate counties in both states, despite their very different demographics.  It might well be different next time, who knows?

Anyway, breaking the states up into perportional delegate representation and than translating that into a revised electoral vote would not be in Republicans' interest in the least right now.  They might win delegates from rural New York and rural Illinois, but they would lose a lot from states like South Carolina, Indiana, Georgia and Alabama, and Democrats would still get the bulk of delegates from California, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois.  There is no good way to reform the electoral college; keep it or ditch it completely.

[Lunar]

With the previous two elections, we still don't know the exact district numbers for 2008, the GOP does better in district-by-district totals than statewide electoral college totals.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obviously you're going to get a different makeup of major cities, different suburbs, etc. trying to compare any two states.  Obviously the comparison between Southern Illinois and Indiana isn't an attempt to say that they're exactly the same.

Thing is they're not even similar really. Iowa is a better comparison for central Illinois, while Kentucky is for southern.

[muon2]

To explain why the Illinois/Indiana comparison is so dumb:

1: Where in downstate Illinois is the equivalent of Indianapolis complete with the uber-GOP suburbs?

The best comparison to Indianapolis is a combination of Peoria and Springfield. Both have D-voting cores and very conservative suburban areas. Had the IL capitol been located in Peoria from the start it might have grown into a larger metro area.

[muon2]

Cook County isn't entirely Chicago though, right? And a very small part of Chicago is in DuPage.

Correct, Chicago makes up a little more than half of Cook county (54%).  A very small portion of Chicago is in dupage, but it is mostly commercial area with a very small population (only 230).  The suburban areas of Cook County are also fairly Democratic (though obviously not as strong as Chicago).  Kerry won suburban Cook by about 19%, Obama won it by much more.

Where do these people live?  I thought the only portion of Chicago in DuPage was part of O'Hare Airport.  Does the city line extend to one side of North York/Elmhurst Road or Irving Park Road or something?

The part of the city of Chicago in DuPage is entirely part of O'Hare airport. In 2000 the Census counted 2 people living in that portion, I presume workers with night quarters in some hangar. This decade the city has been buying land (commercial and residential) to expand and reconfigure the airfield. The battle between Chicago and the DuPage suburb of Bensenville has been long and nasty, but Chicago has taken control of most of its desired land. Since that land includes houses, and not everyone as moved out yet, The population in the DuPage part of Chicago could be a few hundred at the 2010 Census.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

To explain why the Illinois/Indiana comparison is so dumb:

1: Where in downstate Illinois is the equivalent of Indianapolis complete with the uber-GOP suburbs?

The best comparison to Indianapolis is a combination of Peoria and Springfield. Both have D-voting cores and very conservative suburban areas. Had the IL capitol been located in Peoria from the start it might have grown into a larger metro area.

Doesn't make up anywhere near as large a portion of the state though, even without Chicago.

[cinyc]

Cook County isn't entirely Chicago though, right? And a very small part of Chicago is in DuPage.

Correct, Chicago makes up a little more than half of Cook county (54%).  A very small portion of Chicago is in dupage, but it is mostly commercial area with a very small population (only 230).  The suburban areas of Cook County are also fairly Democratic (though obviously not as strong as Chicago).  Kerry won suburban Cook by about 19%, Obama won it by much more.

Where do these people live?  I thought the only portion of Chicago in DuPage was part of O'Hare Airport.  Does the city line extend to one side of North York/Elmhurst Road or Irving Park Road or something?

The part of the city of Chicago in DuPage is entirely part of O'Hare airport. In 2000 the Census counted 2 people living in that portion, I presume workers with night quarters in some hangar. This decade the city has been buying land (commercial and residential) to expand and reconfigure the airfield. The battle between Chicago and the DuPage suburb of Bensenville has been long and nasty, but Chicago has taken control of most of its desired land. Since that land includes houses, and not everyone as moved out yet, The population in the DuPage part of Chicago could be a few hundred at the 2010 Census.

That's what I thought. 

Assuming Chicago has annexed all the land for the O'Hare expansion plan, my guess is that the people live(d) in the small neighborhood off of Irving Park Road that used to be in Bensenville.  You can see from Google Maps that the city has pretty much leveled every other commercial/industrial property around that neighborhood.

[Tender Branson]

Also, PA without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh would have been a swing state.

MO without St. Louis City and County as well as Kansas City would have been 60-40 for McCain.

[jamestroll]

Also, PA without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh would have been a swing state.

MO without St. Louis City and County as well as Kansas City would have been 60-40 for McCain.

But Jay Nixon still would have won!

take that phil!