Dow Jones now below 7000.

[memphis]

We'll have to wait to see if it closes that low. Can it really fall any further?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The scary thing is that they say the worst is still yet to come.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Hard to believe that it was around 14000 only a few years ago.

[Wall St. Wiz]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

WTF are you talking about?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[Beet]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

Yes if he had only followed Hoover's footsteps in giving unrealistically Pollyanish exhortations, all our problems would be solved.

[Wall St. Wiz]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

WTF are you talking about?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

What's so idiotic?  Since the election all he has done is talk down this economy and cause panic among people, businesess, and the markets.  Why did his tone change so dramatically in his speech last week?  All of a sudden he turned into the black Ronald Reagan with his optimism.

Where in hell has Tim Geithner been, and where is the plan to deal with toxic assets?  I'm no Hank Paulson fan, but at least he was trying to help solve problems.  Boy wonder has been MIA, and when he did speak on the issue, it was a disaster.

The markets know that this unprecedented spending is going to lead to terrible inflation and the destruction of the dollar. We were promised change, but he is going to sign a traditional Washington spending bill with thousands of earmarks.  That doesn't inspire confidence.

He announces tax increases in the middle of a deep recession.  Is he stupid?  With the markets so wobbly, how about waiting on that until it's on better footing.  Even better would be not doing it at all, but that's way too much to ask.

There seems to be no cohesive plan, no strategy.  This problem can't be fixed by cutting one-off deals like we're seeing with AIG and others. 

He didn't create this situtation, but he is doing a terrible job of dealing with it.  It's his now, he owns it. The Democrat Party owns it.  There is no running away from it.  People don't want to hear excuses and blame put on others.  We want solutions and he has not offered any. 

[opebo]

I'd say 5000, and all the causation predates Obama.

[Sam Spade]

The bottom is unknown and unknowable - at least at this moment.  Mainly because we're probably not that far into the actual bear market...

Should we fall that much further below where we are right now (say 6500 or so), there is minor support at 5600, then another minor support at 4800, then major support around 3600.  In other words - a lot of air.

As I have said before, the most likely bottom in my mind, ever since we broke the October 2002 lows is now somewhere in the DOW 3-4000 range.  I said 4-5000 before, but that was before the latest downturn.  Best we can hope for now is probably the 4800 as the bottom.  Worst - I don't know - how does DOW 1500 or 2000 sound?  This would bankrupt a lot of SP companies, to put it mildly.

And this is the Bush administration's fault AND the Obama administration's fault (and Clinton too).  It's a bi-partisan thing (note who had control of Congress, etc.).  Not to mention that the ridiculous new spending, should it ever be implemented and the continual bailouts of insolvent companies, bring to a head the potential failure of our government caused by a bond market implosion.  This is a possibility, growing stronger each day in the likelihood of possible outcomes in my mind, by each action taken by the present administration.

If you want a beginning point of all this, the certainly possible target of SP500 at 210, which is around 2000 on the DOW, dates from the October 1987 crash.  Events leading up to this probably started in the mid-1980s or so...  So there.

[Brittain33]

It's his now, he owns it. The Democrat Party owns it. 

It's their responsibility to respond to it, but you'd have a hard time convincing anyone but hardcore Republicans that Democrats are responsible for the situation TODAY, given they only started passing bills a couple of weeks ago.

Certainly Geithner bears responsibility for not handling the bank crisis well so far, but that is one small part of a snowball that has been building up for a long time. The toxins on the balance sheets were there before January 20 and are there today and we're just debating how to respond. The ongoing destruction of wealth is far beyond a President's ability to stop it. It will run its course.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

5.5  months and counting since the failure of LB and we STILL do not have a banking solution which will close down failed banks in an orderly fashion.  Instead, the rules continue to change everyday.

[Beet]

5.5  months and counting since the failure of LB and we STILL do not have a banking solution which will close down failed banks in an orderly fashion.  Instead, the rules continue to change everyday.

We only date it from LB because that's the day the scale of the problems started to become apparent to *us*. It must have been apparent to Bernanke, Geithner, Hankson & Co. since they looked at the books at Bear Stearns. I'm not exactly sure what they were expecting to happen, or what they are expecting to happen now, but they sure as hell haven't gotten a grip on it 1 year later. Yeah I know we're not doing the cowboy thing anymore but a semblance of decisiveness would be helpful.

[opebo]

Certainly this was all inevitable as soon as Reagan was elected, and certainly many Democrats betrayed their constituents (I think that's the only purpose of a faux-left party isn't it?)

However I think it is clear that a majority of americans do pin this plutocratic debacle, like the one before it in the 20's, on the plutocratic party.

[Josh/Devilman88]

So when is this spending bill going to start working?

[Purple State]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

WTF are you talking about?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

What's so idiotic?  Since the election all he has done is talk down this economy and cause panic among people, businesess, and the markets.  Why did his tone change so dramatically in his speech last week?  All of a sudden he turned into the black Ronald Reagan with his optimism.

Where in hell has Tim Geithner been, and where is the plan to deal with toxic assets?  I'm no Hank Paulson fan, but at least he was trying to help solve problems.  Boy wonder has been MIA, and when he did speak on the issue, it was a disaster.

The markets know that this unprecedented spending is going to lead to terrible inflation and the destruction of the dollar. We were promised change, but he is going to sign a traditional Washington spending bill with thousands of earmarks.  That doesn't inspire confidence.

He announces tax increases in the middle of a deep recession.  Is he stupid?  With the markets so wobbly, how about waiting on that until it's on better footing.  Even better would be not doing it at all, but that's way too much to ask.

There seems to be no cohesive plan, no strategy.  This problem can't be fixed by cutting one-off deals like we're seeing with AIG and others. 

He didn't create this situtation, but he is doing a terrible job of dealing with it.  It's his now, he owns it. The Democrat Party owns it.  There is no running away from it.  People don't want to hear excuses and blame put on others.  We want solutions and he has not offered any. 

You are truly an idiot.

I would rather never see Geithner's face in public until this crisis is over. The more you see them making speeches and promoting their programs the less time they are developing ideas, discussing solutions, and actually working to make things better.

The spending bill (which has already been signed) has perceived "earmarks" because the point of the legislation is to build infrastructure. Well, unless we are working on moon infrastructure this money is bound to go to state projects. Hence, one man's earmarks are another man's stimulus.

He announced tax increases on a tiny portion of the population. For the rest he has offered renewed hope for their paychecks, their health care, their jobs, et al. No one is crying over small tax increases except the Republicans.

As far as most economists can tell Obama is doing exactly what we need to do. You can't expect anything Obama has done so far to take effect right then and there. Much of what we are feeling today was not even close to controllable by Obama. Not only that, but since when is the Dow an indication of the health of our economy? Remember, the night is darkest just before the dawn. If Obama turns this around and begins economic recovery by Q1 2010 (and I would predict Q3 2009) then he will have done an incredible job. And I will say the Dow's recovery will only follow the national recovery.

So when is this spending bill going to start working?

It's working, but it will be hard to see noticeable effects for a while. Small projects all around the country will add up over the next year and then we will have more noticeable improvement after that.

[opebo]

So when is this spending bill going to start working?

Only the parts which go directly to poors will have much effect in the next year to 18 months, and I'm afraid those are smallish parts of the bill, aren't they?

[J. J.]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

WTF are you talking about?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Obama owns it now.  This is part of the reaction to his budget, the "stimulus" bill, and his actions on the bailout.  He'll own it in five months as well, and that is the real test.

[Bacon King]

So when is this spending bill going to start working?

It's not the economy can magically get better overnight.

[CultureKing]

I am not going to let Republicans pin this on us. It is clear that the downturn was due to a trend towards de-regulation, that was spearheaded mainly by Republicans (though also approved by Clinton). Bush did little to help with any of this, meanwhile Obama has just taken office and it is WAY too soon to try and put blame him for a downturn that is rooted in the policies of the past. As has been stated before the recovery plan is a long-term solution that likely will not have a significant effect for another 12-18 months or so.

[Sam Spade]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

WTF are you talking about?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Obama owns it now.  This is part of the reaction to his budget, the "stimulus" bill, and his actions on the bailout.  He'll own it in five months as well, and that is the real test.

I don't think he owns it in the public's mind yet.  It probably takes about 6 months from inauguration in my mind, which makes me agree with your second sentence.

[J. J.]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

WTF are you talking about?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Obama owns it now.  This is part of the reaction to his budget, the "stimulus" bill, and his actions on the bailout.  He'll own it in five months as well, and that is the real test.

I don't think he owns it in the public's mind yet.  It probably takes about 6 months from inauguration in my mind, which makes me agree with your second sentence.

I think it can work, marginally, by August.  Nothing succeeds like success.  If it doesn't, you are looking at the deluge.

[Sam Spade]

I am not going to let Republicans pin this on us.

Congrats!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Too simplified - not just in causation, but in responsibility.  In examining the history, it seems plainly clear that both parties are as equally to blame and that de-regulation (in certain areas) is not the singular cause (it is a cause).  Lack of enforcement and over-regulation (in certain areas) is as much to blame. 

But much as in other things, I'm merely waiting to see who gets the "correct" answer first, as that is who I will support.  I just hope it doesn't occur after the *point of no return* has passed.

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The public will give him time.  I think 12-18 months is too long.  I suspect 6 months is more than likely - maybe it could be 12.  Considering the short attention span of the public and how bad things are getting (and will get), I lean towards a shorter timespan, but who knows.  One things for sure in my mind - I am willing to bet considerable money that the economy is worse in 12-18 months than now, regardless.

In terms of the financial problem, Obama is merely continuing the policies of Bush but with less clarity.  Henceforth, the market response...  IMO, Obama should have been ready with a response from day one - FDR was, he declared a bank holiday and examined everyone's books.

In some ways - it's perhaps even worse.  For example, the bailout moneys thrown at AIG today consists of a bailout of China liabilities through AIA.  Is that more payoff so China keeps buying our debt? 

In terms of government involvement, the spending plans are kinda like Bush on steroids.   They won't work either.  And even if they do work in some way (possible), it's only making the final fall worse (and if they do work it won't be for long).

Think I'm rambling now.  Will stop.

[Sam Spade]

Good job Obama, this economy is your baby now.  You inherited a bad situation and have made it much worse with your reckless spending, lack of detail, and anti-business rhetoric. Talking down the economy isn't looking too good now is it?  You are turning a recession into a depression you asshole.

WTF are you talking about?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Obama owns it now.  This is part of the reaction to his budget, the "stimulus" bill, and his actions on the bailout.  He'll own it in five months as well, and that is the real test.

I don't think he owns it in the public's mind yet.  It probably takes about 6 months from inauguration in my mind, which makes me agree with your second sentence.

I think it can work, marginally, by August.  Nothing succeeds like success.  If it doesn't, you are looking at the deluge.

There certainly is the possibility out there that things *look better* by August.  If so, it's the calm before the back end of the hurricane hits.

You see, I personally think there will be some type of calm before the house of cards really collapses.  The difficult game is in telling when the *calm* will occur (i.e. we could be going through it right now, oddly enough) and when the secondary collapse begins.

For example, hindsight (and actually paying attention to economic details, which I was not at the time in any great amount) mad it clear that based off the information readily available during the start of Bear Stearns debacle and the Asian stock market crash (February 2007) that the United States was going to head towards a recession not long soon afterwards.

Personally, I myself saw that the residential housing market was ending its bubble in mid-2007 and would be contracting significantly (something which I knew would eventually happen back in 2005 - real estate is something I understand quite well).  Consequently, I planned accordingly - putting my money into cash and other safe investments and limiting my stock exposure to safer stocks because I believed a recession was at hand.

Now, I missed the last great run-up culminating in October 2007, but so what.  I didn't get killed with my investments - did ok actually. 

The problem was that, well, I couldn't sense when the recession would start.  I knew it would start, but when.  And Lord knows, I had no idea what was actually that monster under the bed.

Now, as of today - I know these events will occur, but I have no idea the magnitude they will be or when they will occur.  I can only play off of what I see in the numbers, and quite frankly, they only get worse by the day.  In that sense, we are kind of similar in our analyses. 

Maybe I'm wrong and the Greater Depression doesn't arise.  But if TPTB don't start making the correct decisions instead of making things worse, I'd like to take that bet.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I'm not sure if this is true or not, that is why I am asking.

The other day me and my friends were talking about the economy and he said that the economy didn't start getting bad until after the midterm elections in 06(when Democrats took control). After that everything went down hill fast.

Is it true the economy started to get bad after 2006?

[Joe Republic]

I'm not sure if this is true or not, that is why I am asking.

The other day me and my friends were talking about the economy and he said that the economy didn't start getting bad until after the midterm elections in 06(when Democrats took control). After that everything went down hill fast.

Is it true the economy started to get bad after 2006?

Will the answer determine the color of your avatar?