Napoleon wins at Waterloo

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What would have happened if Napoleon had defeated Wellington?  Would he have been able to reestablish his empire, or would he have been taken down eventually?  How long would it have taken, and what effect would it have had on the other European countries?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Napoleon would have been defeated eventually (and probably that being a not too long 'eventually') however in this scenario the British could not steal from the Prussians have all the glory associated with the victory, which might have made British historiography less "fog begins at the channel" and more introspective. Or perhaps not. Of course British historiography is clearly the most important thing in the world.

[afleitch]

Of course British historiography is clearly the most important thing in the world.

Darn right! Without it we wouldn't have the dichotomy of post-imperial historiography stuffed down our unwilling throats for the past 40 years (I personally dislike the taste of both...)

[Psychic Octopus]

If Napoleon won at Waterloo...

I have not mulled the question that much, but...

Suppose that Marquis de Grouchy could have done the impossible and kept the British and Prussians from joining forces, in a best-case scenario for the french, Napoleon wins the battle. Now, does Napoleon act like a power-mad megolomanic still? Or does he sit down with other leaders. I think that the various Great Powers of Europe would accept the restored Bonapartist regime, wether they like it or not. Now Napoleon, sitting down with his enemies is unprobable, if not insane. His attention would be still towards Europe, but perhaps he would look Overseas for his empire, and build up the french navy. Maybe he'll take a second chance at Egypt? Who Knows? He Probably would focus on Africa, I do not recall France having any particular colonies of importance in America or Asia. He may make a second try at Continental Domination, although it would be stupid. I think he may look inward, also, doing many architectural projects.

What of Germany? Germany will remain divided for years to come. The Nation of Prussia will likely unite Northern Germany. While the Austrians take Bavaria. A "Cold War" will develop between the two German States. Thjere will be no Franco-Prussian War. Or may be there will be? with a French Victory, likely.

What of Britain? Britain will not be the clearly dominant power after the failure at Waterloo. One of two Superpowers,  France and Britain. The two will continue to compete, like in the 18th Century, for worldwide influence and power. The "Pax Brittanica" will have to wait.

What of America? America's role in the 19th Century will not change. The Isolated Nation will have a civil war, *union victory* and will probably have the same presidents in real life until probably the 1910s or 1920s. But the 20th Century, will not be characterized by obvious American Dominance in a World of Global Colonial powers.  America will not be a Hyperpower. It may be a Superpower, though, but it won't be the only one. Colonialism will extend into the 21st Century.

So, This will probably mean No WWII, No WWII-- and No Holocaust. A lovely Acadian Dream, perhaps, but this was a possibility.

[Hash]

It's too easy to say that there would have been no 14-18, 39-45, or any other things. You would likely have seen similar situations leading to similar conflicts in other regions.

[k-onmmunist]

Napoleon would have been defeated eventually (and probably that being a not too long 'eventually') however in this scenario the British could not steal from the Prussians

*Facepalm*

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Napoleon would have been defeated eventually (and probably that being a not too long 'eventually') however in this scenario the British could not steal from the Prussians

*Facepalm*

Please, continue...

[The Mikado]

Then Napoleon loses two or three months later and things come out roughly the same, though perhaps without Prime Minister Wellington, Wellington Boots, Beef Wellington, etc.

You want to really change history, have Napoleon wipe out the Russians at Borodino.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

You want to really change history, have Napoleon wipe out the Russians at Borodino.

Yes, you're right.  So, what happens if Napoleon wins at Borodino?

[The Mikado]

You want to really change history, have Napoleon wipe out the Russians at Borodino.

Yes, you're right.  So, what happens if Napoleon wins at Borodino?

I'll give this a shot: without the threat of the Russian army, Napoleon might've done the same thing he did in real life and wait to leave the ruins of Moscow until it was almost too late.  However, without the Russian military hounding his forces the entire walk back, many, many more members of the Grand Armee survive the retreat.  Russia is knocked out of the war, with Borodino on the heels of Austerlitz humiliating and discrediting Tsar Alexander.  Despite the annoying British general Wellington leading the Spaniards to victory in the Peninsular War, the other powers of Europe are cowed by Napoleon's domination.  Austria, Prussia, and Russia are now too disheartened to continue resisting, and Napoleon tightens the Continental System, cutting the UK even further off from the rest of Europe. 

Finally, Metternich in now-neutral Austria (with Napoleon a Habsburg in-law) proposes a peace conference in Vienna in 1814 to negotiate a permanent peace between France and Britain and reorganize a map.  France's Dalmatian Territories become the Kingdom of Dalmatia to give Joseph Bonaparte a consolation prize for the loss of Spain.  Louis, brother of Louis XVI, the last Bourbon King of France, is made King Luis of Spain as a consolation prize, throwing the Spanish branch of the Bourbon family out completely (and causing much feuding).  UK agrees to terms that recognize British claims to its overseas territories (France makes no claim on Quebec) and its own autonomy in exchange for recognizing French supremacy on the continent and pledging not to enter into any anti-French alliances. 

Napoleon then forms the "Quintuple Alliance" of France, the Kingdom of Italy (a stooge "country" propped up by Napoleon's forces and ruled by Napoleon's son, Napoleon II), Austria, Prussia, and Russia, vowing to aid each other in crushing rebellions, and forms a Concert System, largely formulated by Metternich, to consult the other powers and avoid any future wars.  Russia and Prussia, humiliatingly, has to accept the legitimacy of the Grand Duchy of Warsaw.  All nations pay lip service to the Napoleonic Code, and Italy, Dalmatia, and Warsaw all adopt it.  Prussia is given a leading role in a loose German Confederation, but its sway is threatened both by pan-Germanists who resent Prussia's abandoning the Rhineland to France and by Catholics who, as always, look both to Vienna and across the mountains to Rome for guidance.  Much to the dismay of the Ottoman Sultan, Napoleon turns his expansionist eyes to North Africa, solidifying Egypt, expanding southwards into Sudan, and claiming Tunis and Algiers as French territory.

The UK, sealed off, becomes even more ultra-reactionary than it did in real life in that period.  Meanwhile on the continent, citing the Napoleonic Code, rebels still emerge and have a much more sympathetic audience than the harshly repressive Restoration order did in real life.  Revolts in Spain in 1820 give Napoleon a chance to overthrow the Spanish monarch and place his 12-year-old nephew, Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, as King of Spain, with a faithful regent to keep an eye on the young monarch until he reached majority...however, Napoleon decides that the revolts in the Americas are not worth crushing and Latin America achieves independence anyway.  France, like the rest of the continent and the British people, became greatly excited at the possibility of an independent Greece, a possibility that the ever-weakening Ottoman Empire proves powerless to prevent.  When Napoleon I dies in 1822, he leaves behind a unified France stretching all the way through Flanders and the Rhineland to even take in bits of Holland, with puppet states in Spain, Dalmatia, Warsaw, Switzerland, and Italy and docile neighbors in the Prussian-dominated German Confederation, Austria, and Russia.  A marginalized and bitter Britain is the only serious foe to France.  The King of Italy, Napoleon II, takes the throne of Emperor of France while keeping his own Italian throne, leading the two countries into personal union.  Who knows what the future would hold?

[Hash]

Why does Napoléon give the title of King of Italy to his son? Napoléon himself was King of Italy and Emperor in a personal union, and his son was styled "King of Rome", a courtesy title.

Does Napoléon's little creation, the Confederation of the Rhine continue to exist? I'd wager Napoléon would prefer the Confederation of the Rhine excluding a weakened Prussia to a loose German Confederation including weakened Prussia.

Does Murat keep the Kingdom of Naples?

Does Napoleonic France look something like this at Napoléon's death?

[The Mikado]

Why does Napoléon give the title of King of Italy to his son? Napoléon himself was King of Italy and Emperor in a personal union, and his son was styled "King of Rome", a courtesy title.

Does Napoléon's little creation, the Confederation of the Rhine continue to exist? I'd wager Napoléon would prefer the Confederation of the Rhine excluding a weakened Prussia to a loose German Confederation including weakened Prussia.

Does Murat keep the Kingdom of Naples?

Does Napoleonic France look something like this at Napoléon's death?

The logic behind putting Napoleon II as King of Italy, to me, was giving Napoleon's chosen successor a "training wheels" kingdom to get used to managing the state.  I didn't really see much long-term-viability to the Confederation of the Rhine, even with Napoleon remaining around.

[Hash]

Why does Napoléon give the title of King of Italy to his son? Napoléon himself was King of Italy and Emperor in a personal union, and his son was styled "King of Rome", a courtesy title.

Does Napoléon's little creation, the Confederation of the Rhine continue to exist? I'd wager Napoléon would prefer the Confederation of the Rhine excluding a weakened Prussia to a loose German Confederation including weakened Prussia.

Does Murat keep the Kingdom of Naples?

Does Napoleonic France look something like this at Napoléon's death?

The logic behind putting Napoleon II as King of Italy, to me, was giving Napoleon's chosen successor a "training wheels" kingdom to get used to managing the state.  I didn't really see much long-term-viability to the Confederation of the Rhine, even with Napoleon remaining around.

The Confederation of the Rhine was almost quasi-exclusively a military alliance of French client states that provided the French army troops.

Napoleon did propose to Prussia to form a similar North German Confederation, but Prussia refused and Napoleon owned them at Iena.

[pbrower2a]

What would have happened if Napoleon had defeated Wellington?  Would he have been able to reestablish his empire, or would he have been taken down eventually?  How long would it have taken, and what effect would it have had on the other European countries?

Napoleon dictates terms of peace. He probably gets to keep the Walloon region of what had been the "Austrian Netherlands" (now Belgium), and Holland expands into Flanders. The Netherlands also expands into what is now northwestern Germany and becomes a de facto rival of Prussia. Belgium never forms, with influence upon Prussian-French relations.

Napoleon has no further taste for conquest, having learned the hard way that one eventually ends up with an enemy too dangerous for one's taste.

(Really -- the Netherlands is a German state, as the Dutch language is no different from dialectal speech in northern Germany).

Austria is strengthened, and it is eventually able to incorporate Catholic Bavaria, strengthening the German dominance of Austria to the detriment of the Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, and Croatians within the Austrian Empire.  Germany eventually forms, but not so much over the carcass of France as that of Austria, which remains independent but shorn of non-German-speaking peoples. Bismarck promises independence to the Hungarians, Slovaks, Slovenes, and Croats... and delivers. Polish Galicia becomes a puppet state of a German empire that does not include Bavaria. Bohemia, if not a province of Germany, becomes a puppet state. Romania, with its Hohenzollern king, participates in the dismemberment of the Hapsburg Monarchy.

Italy unifies on schedule.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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As a word of advice, never say that to a Dutch person.

[pbrower2a]

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As a word of advice, never say that to a Dutch person.

Especially since 1940!

But it is a linguistic fact. It's not polite to call Austrians "Germans", either.

German and Dutch nationality were ill-defined at the time of the Dutch settlement of New Amsterdam. The Dutch brought in lots of German settlers.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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As a word of advice, never say that to a Dutch person.

Especially since 1940!

But it is a linguistic fact. It's not polite to call Austrians "Germans", either.

German and Dutch nationality were ill-defined at the time of the Dutch settlement of New Amsterdam. The Dutch brought in lots of German settlers.

In terms of linguistics they are not 'facts', one could easily say Dutch is a language but that Swiss German, Austrian German, High German and Low German are seperate languages as well. 'Tis all perspective and politics.

You are of course correct though; Dutch nationality does not begin to emerge until the foundation of the Dutch Republic in the 16th Century and then applying the concept of 'nationality' to it would have to wait for probably another two centuries.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You want to really change history, have Napoleon wipe out the Russians at Borodino.

Yes, you're right.  So, what happens if Napoleon wins at Borodino?

I'll give this a shot: without the threat of the Russian army, Napoleon might've done the same thing he did in real life and wait to leave the ruins of Moscow until it was almost too late.  However, without the Russian military hounding his forces the entire walk back, many, many more members of the Grand Armee survive the retreat.  Russia is knocked out of the war, with Borodino on the heels of Austerlitz humiliating and discrediting Tsar Alexander.  Despite the annoying British general Wellington leading the Spaniards to victory in the Peninsular War, the other powers of Europe are cowed by Napoleon's domination.  Austria, Prussia, and Russia are now too disheartened to continue resisting, and Napoleon tightens the Continental System, cutting the UK even further off from the rest of Europe. 

Finally, Metternich in now-neutral Austria (with Napoleon a Habsburg in-law) proposes a peace conference in Vienna in 1814 to negotiate a permanent peace between France and Britain and reorganize a map.  France's Dalmatian Territories become the Kingdom of Dalmatia to give Joseph Bonaparte a consolation prize for the loss of Spain.  Louis, brother of Louis XVI, the last Bourbon King of France, is made King Luis of Spain as a consolation prize, throwing the Spanish branch of the Bourbon family out completely (and causing much feuding).  UK agrees to terms that recognize British claims to its overseas territories (France makes no claim on Quebec) and its own autonomy in exchange for recognizing French supremacy on the continent and pledging not to enter into any anti-French alliances. 

Giving Louis XVIII Spain would have been a huge mistake. The French "Legitimiste" Bourbon Dynasty was dying. That is clear when you consider that  Louis XVI's son died in Jail and Louis XVIII didn't have a son and Charles X's son died childless by 1883. Putting them on the throne would have caused chaos. Especially when you consider, that were it not for Phillippe V's renounciation of the French Succession in 1720, the Spanish Bourbon dynasty would have inhereited France in 1883 had the Revolution never occured.  It also would not have been a smart move to deprive Ferdinand of the throne after so much propaganda had been used to legitimise him in the Peninusla war.  Had the Revolution never occured Louis XVIII never would have been anything but the brother and  later uncle of the King and nothing more and so thats how it would have remained.

When Napoleon returned in 1814 he returned as the defender of the gains of the Revolution(sale of church lands, abolishing or the tithes and siegnurialism). He was committed to being a constitutional monarch cause anything else would have guarrenteed permenent ouster for him. He was also committed to ruling just France. At first the English wavered but Talleyrand was able to convince each allied nation to commit I beleive 200,000 men to crusing Napoleon. For a total of 800,000. Napoleon had just 200,000 at his comand.

Napoleon could not have won at Waterloo. Even if he had released the Imperial Guard earlier and broken Wellington's center, he still had the Prussian Army on his right flank. If a few days earlier Napoleon had ordered Gruchy to march at dawn and attack the Prussian' he could have at least gotten a good idea where the Prussian's were. Instead he moved too slow and it was afternoon before he got moving and by then the Prussian had put some distance between them and allowed them to move closer to Wellington undetected. Thats were it could have gone differently. I would have attacked the Prussians when I knew where they were and concentrate heavilly on the right flank hoping to drive to Liege and there base of supplies. Then moved on too Wellington. Overall Napoleon had aged and he lacked the sense of what the exact critical moment of a battle was. When he did release the Guard they ran into reinforced troups, instead of the the weakened force they had done battle with earlier, b/c Napoleon hessitated. Also Ney was moving unquestionably slow as well.

[Storebought]

If Napoleon won at Waterloo, the Rotschild family would have gone bankrupt. Then modern conspiracy theorists would have to find another family of perfidious Joos to bait.