George W. Bush vs. Howard Dean 2004

[anvi]

In the 2004, primaries, Howard Dean's oganization in Iowa turnes out to be much better than in real life, and he sweeps to victory there and, on that momentum, captures New Hampshire too.  Kerry fights back bravely, but Dean's concise attacks on President Bush's handling of the Iraq war and the economy excite Democrats and convince them that they want a real bulldog to attack Bush.  Kerry bows out a few weeks after Super Tuesday and Dean, with a good ground political organization and a fired-up base, picks Iowa congressman Richard Gephardt to be his running mate.

In the general election campaign, both candidates make some verbal gaffes that occasionally get them in trouble, but the growing disatisfaction with the war in Iraq begins to gnaw at the president's approval ratings.  In return, the Bush campaign ridicules Dean's sometimes flaming rhetoric and his lack of national security experience.  The three debates between the candidates offer some good exchanges, but even though the polls show that the public thinks Dean won all the debates, general national security worries vs. the growing anti-Iraq sentiment keep the national polls close.  Drawing special attention is the vice-presidential debate, featuring two parents of gay children sharing a touching concord about their respective love for their children (which includes Cheney conceding that he thinks gay marriage should be a state and not a federal issue) in the midst of a crisp policy debate, and this appears to offset the several anti-gay marriage initiatives up for vote in a number of states.  His organization and online funding efforts, along with Gephardt's appeal in parts of the midwest and rustbelt, impel Dean to campaign aggressively in a number of states won by Bush in 2000.  Going into the election, it is clear that both parties will do a supurb job mobilizing their bases, and amidst heavy voter turnout, the voters in the middle and Independents may decide the fate of the country.

How does the election turn out?  Maps, please.

President George W. Bush / Vice President Dick Cheney
Goveror Howard Dean / Congressman Richard Gephardt

[N.i.K.]

Dean-327
Bush-211

Dean would have beaten Bush Badly.

[12th Doctor]

RON PAUL REVOLUTION!!!!!!

[Captain Chaos]

RON PAUL REVOLUTION!!!!!!

Take your right hand. And slowly...move it away...from your pants.

[yoman82]

RON PAUL REVOLUTION!!!!!!

Take your right hand. And slowly...move it away...from your pants.

Just what I was thinking.

[anvi]

Ok, well, after that little bit of excitement...

Here is what would have worried me about a Bush/Cheney vs. Dean/Gephardt race.  Gephardt carries his Iowa home advantage, and his religious affiliation brings over enough voters in New Mexico and both candidates win enough union support in the Nevada cities to carry each of these three states.  But, Bush wins a close race in Florida and eeks out a one point win in Ohio, and suddenly, we have the result:



                               Electoral Vote:                Popular Vote
Bush/Cheney                    269                           48.8%
Dean/Gephardt                 269                           49.2%

For the second straight election, Bush loses the popular vote, but the tied electoral college sends the election to the House, and Bush retains the presidency.  Coming on the heels of his controversial 2000 decision against Gore, the Democrats are half-ready to revolt.  For the only time in history, a president is elected to two terms having lost the popular vote both times and having been awarded the presidency ultimately by the U.S. Supreme Court in the first election and the U.S. House of Representatives in his second.

[phk]

[Californian Tony]

Ok, well, after that little bit of excitement...

Here is what would have worried me about a Bush/Cheney vs. Dean/Gephardt race.  Gephardt carries his Iowa home advantage, and his religious affiliation brings over enough voters in New Mexico and both candidates win enough union support in the Nevada cities to carry each of these three states.  But, Bush wins a close race in Florida and eeks out a one point win in Ohio, and suddenly, we have the result:



                               Electoral Vote:                Popular Vote
Bush/Cheney                    269                           48.8%
Dean/Gephardt                 269                           49.2%

For the second straight election, Bush loses the popular vote, but the tied electoral college sends the election to the House, and Bush retains the presidency.  Coming on the heels of his controversial 2000 decision against Gore, the Democrats are half-ready to revolt.  For the only time in history, a president is elected to two terms having lost the popular vote both times and having been awarded the presidency ultimately by the U.S. Supreme Court in the first election and the U.S. House of Representatives in his second.

Frightening scenario...

[Senator Ben]

[anvi]

A few of you have Dean losing Wisconsin.  I don't think so.  If Kerry won Wisconsin, Dean will definitely win it.

[N.i.K.]

Dean would have won. I can say that.

[dcushmanjva]

I highly doubt Dean could beat Bush. One of the reasons Bush prevailed in a close election was because they were able to stick the "Massachusetts liberal" charge on Kerry. If the GOP could make that charge stick on Kerry, a moderate compared to Dean, then they would have no trouble branding Dean as a left-wing curiosity too liberal for America. Also, too, the GOP would raise the "inexperience" charge over Dean, the governor of a state with 3 electoral votes (imagine a GOP twist on Sarah Palin in 2008, ironic isn't it?) Anyway, I think Dean's campaign would've been more energetic than Kerry's, but in the end I think Bush's second term wouldn't have been in doubt.



Remember that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire all went for Kerry by 2 points or less, so Bush could've conceivably won there.

Bush/Cheney - 321
Dean/Gephardt - 217

[Senator Ben]

GOP would raise the "inexperience" charge over Dean, the governor of a state with 3 electoral votes (imagine a GOP twist on Sarah Palin in 2008, ironic isn't it?)

Dean had been Governor for 14 years.

[Rowan]

Dean is also a nutcase.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dean is also a nutcase.

I remember the Democrats were saying the same thing about Reagan, back in 1980.
Didn't work out that well, huh?

[anvi]

Dean isn't a nutcase.  Anyway, I wish the Democrats would have nominated him in '04.  Maybe he would have lost (maybe not), but at least he would have taken it to Bush about the Iraq war full-tilt, and the nation would have had a debate about something important when it needed to.  As it was, the '04 general was a complete waste.  That's why I'm interested in the scenario.

[pbrower2a]

Howard Dean wins on exuberance and a fifty-state strategy that forces the GOP to defend everything. He barely wins, but he does win.  He can't be Swiftboated.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

There seems to be several Deanamaniacs posting here who are living under the illusion that Dean would actually have been viable as a Presidential nominee.

Dean would have been far less credible as a Presidential nominee than was Kerry.  This would have become clear during the campaign. 

In 2004, Bush still commanded a considerale following in the country, and it would have taken a candidate of much more substance than Dean to have taken power away from him.

Like Edwards failed to deliver North Carolina, Gephardt fails to deliver Missouri.

A clear and comfortable win for Bush and Cheney.   

Bush/Cheney                           327
Dean/Gephardt                        211

[anvi]

Like I said, I don't know that Dean will win.  He had some vulnerabilities as a candidate, and the Bush team ran a strategically effective campaign that year and certainly would have against Dean too.  Dean wouldn't have been Swiftboated, but he would certainly have been painted as a liberal maniac.  In the end, I think Dean's major problem as a candidate was that his organization was not everything it was cracked up to be; lots of young, inexpereienced volunteers who were great at going door to door but not great about organizing caucuses in Iowa or getting out votes in New Hamphsire.  But, Dean was to the liberal base of the Democratic party what Palin is to the conservative base of the Republican party.  It was always hard to get liberals in the general excited about Kerry, and I think this is one of the major reasons that states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were as close as they were.  Had Dean been nominated, it would not have been hard to get the left to come out for him, and centrist Democrats, though they disliked Dean, would not have drifted to Bush in larger numbers than they did in the Kerry race.  Dean would also have done dramatically better than Kerry did in the debates because he would not have been as flat and reticent, as Kerry was, to take it to Bush.  I think that there is every possibility that Bush would have won, but I don't think, at the very least, that Dean would have gotten fewer votes than Kerry. 

[pbrower2a]

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263

[GPORTER]

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263

Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.

And, how would Bush steal Florida in 2004 which he won by five points that year? And, I have never been totally convinced that Bush stole Ohio in 2004. So, if Bush stole Ohio, did Kerry steal Wisconsin? He probably did, using your logic.

[Jayhawker]

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263

Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.

And, how would Bush steal Florida in 2004 which he won by five points that year? And, I have never been totally convinced that Bush stole Ohio in 2004. So, if Bush stole Ohio, did Kerry steal Wisconsin? He probably did, using your logic.

Gore also stole New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon in 2000.

[pbrower2a]

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263

Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.

The favorite son effect is worth about enough for a vice-Presidential candidate to make a difference of 7-8%. Because Missouri wins the election outright, Gephardt doesn't need to stray far from Missouri.

[GPORTER]

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263

Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.

The favorite son effect is worth about enough for a vice-Presidential candidate to make a difference of 7-8%. Because Missouri wins the election outright, Gephardt doesn't need to stray far from Missouri.

So, what you are saying is that no matter who is on the ticket as presidential or vice presidential candidate of a major party, they will automatically win there homestate as long as it would have otherwise been lost by seven or eight percent?

[pbrower2a]

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263

Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.

The favorite son effect is worth about enough for a vice-Presidential candidate to make a difference of 7-8%. Because Missouri wins the election outright, Gephardt doesn't need to stray far from Missouri.

So, what you are saying is that no matter who is on the ticket as presidential or vice presidential candidate of a major party, they will automatically win there homestate as long as it would have otherwise been lost by seven or eight percent?

I just figure that Gephardt does most of his campaigning in Missouri... and that is enough.